- Controversial Election Dispute Surrounds New Traffic Light Policy
Berlin (dpa) – It was the predicted catastrophe. The predictions beforehand had suggested that the traffic light coalition in Berlin was likely to suffer a big loss in the elections in Thuringia and Saxony. The only question was how bad it would be.
The early projections at 6:00 PM suggested that it was indeed terrible, but it could have been worse. The FDP failed to make it into the Thuringian state parliament, making them absent from both parliaments. The Greens, who had previously been in power in both states, also fell short of the 5% threshold in Thuringia, leaving their re-election in Saxony uncertain. The SPD at least avoided the embarrassment of not being represented in a state parliament for the first time in the Federal Republic's history, although their results were only in the single digits in both states.
The parties that make up the federal government have never performed so poorly in state elections together before. The fact that the Left Party (BSW) in Thuringia scored significantly better than the SPD, Greens, and FDP combined, and that the AfD is now almost three times as strong as the traffic light coalition there, says it all. The fact that the coalition partners managed to patch things up shortly before the elections and agree on consequences from the knife attack in Solingen without public dispute did not help them.
Ampel improvement: "It must finally start now"
From the SPD headquarters in Berlin, the usual excuses for the traffic light's share of the blame for the election defeat came in on election night. Yes, the constant bickering in the coalition makes people tired and weary, said party leader Saskia Esken. Yes, that must finally change. Yes, they've promised that before. "But now it must really start," Esken emphasized, pausing after each word for effect.
Whether the traffic light still has the strength to do so remains to be seen. A first test will be the implementation of the decisions on migration and security policy that the federal government presented last Thursday. The Union will try to keep pushing the government on this issue, and there could be resistance from the left wings of the Greens and SPD. The budget also still needs to pass through the Bundestag.
SPD's next election in Brandenburg more important
But above all, they will likely keep their heads down in the next three weeks. Because then the next election in Eastern Germany is coming up. And that is even more important for the SPD than those in Thuringia and Saxony. Because the Social Democrats have continuously provided the ministers there since 1990. If the re-election of the incumbent Dietmar Woidke fails, discipline in the SPD could crumble.
Then it could also become uncomfortable for Scholz, who confidently announced before the summer break that he wanted to lead his party into the next federal election. All speculation about a Joe Biden scenario, in which Scholz could step down in favor of the more popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), is currently being dismissed by the party leadership. "We want and will run with Olaf Scholz in the next federal election," SPD leader Lars Klingbeil repeats like a mantra.
However, Esken makes it clear on election night that she expects Scholz to make the SPD's positions in the government clearer. "He must above all make it clear that this coalition is an SPD-led government. That must also be noticeable."
The debate over early elections due to the waning of the traffic light coalition could flare up again in the coming days and weeks. However, the fact that all traffic light parties would have to reckon with a crash continues to speak against such a step. Currently, they are together between 29 and 34 percent in the nationwide polls compared to 52 percent in the 2021 election.
In recent months, speculation about new elections has mainly attributed the FDP with breaking up the coalition. However, the Liberals, with their nationwide poll results of 4 to 5 percent, are likely to have the least interest in an early Bundestag election now.
Nouripour angry about "superfluous dispute"
Green Party leader Omid Nouripour has recently referred to the traffic light coalition as a "transitional government" - but it is almost unthinkable that he or his party would bring an abrupt end to this "transitional phase". The Greens are firmly convinced of their role as a stabilizing force in the state. In the states where elections are now taking place, they emphasize that they are the only ones who have clearly distanced themselves from the BSW, which questions support for Ukraine. Leaving the coalition at a time when a second presidency of Donald Trump seems possible and Ukraine continues to fight? Hardly.
Nouripour, however, makes it clear on election Sunday how angry he is about the appearance of the traffic light coalition. "This superfluous dispute in this coalition has harmed everyone. And that's also a piece of the bill that we're seeing now."
Union's start into the hot phase for the decision on the K-question
In the Union, today's election Sunday is seen as the start of the final phase for the decision on the K-question - which, according to the leaders of the CDU and CSU, Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, should be made in late summer - probably after the state election in Brandenburg on September 22.
Merz is generally considered to have the best chances in the Union. Nevertheless, there is concern in the CDU that the Bavarian Minister President might bet on Merz getting into trouble due to possible turbulence in the coming weeks. It is an open secret that Söder still considers himself the best candidate for chancellor.
Challenging times lie ahead for the CDU until after the Brandenburg election, with potential dissenters trying to breach the barrier Merz has established against the AfD. Despite clear directives from the CDU headquarters in Berlin, there might be a few individuals who are eager to challenge this barrier.
Merz could also encounter obstacles in relation to the BSW, particularly if the CDU fails to bypass the BSW in the process of forming a government. Initially, Merz was as firm against cooperating with the BSW as with the AfD. Wagenknecht, according to Merz, is extremist on some issues and liberal on others, a statement he made following the European election in June. However, after pressure from campaigners in the east, Merz retracted this statement, deeming the issue of cooperation a matter for the states to decide.
The AfD celebrates another achievement
Although the AfD may not have achieved a breakthrough in both federal states, the party chairperson, Alice Weidel, still hailed it as a "historic victory" and a "funeral for this coalition" in her initial reaction.
The AfD views its recent rise to become the strongest party in Thuringia, the first time since its inception in 2013, as a significant step towards acquiring more influence nationally. Although the current situation does not permit Bundestag election prospects in 2025, as other parties refuse to collaborate with the AfD, which is considered a right-wing extremist suspect by the constitutional protection agency, the party has its sights set on the 2029 election. Their strategy: if public discontent towards the AfD and acceptance of the party reach sufficient levels by then, it could make an impact at the federal level.
BSW seeks a role in federal politics
Meanwhile, Sahra Wagenknecht and her BSW party are striving to become active in federal politics. If coalition talks materialize, the newly established party aims to put forth demands that impact the federal government. Wagenknecht has named the cessation of arms deliveries to Ukraine, more diplomatic efforts from the federal government, and a rejection of US missile stationing in Germany as conditions for the BSW's participation in the Thuringian government.
The Green Party leader, Omid Nouripour, expressed his frustration with the "superfluous dispute" within the traffic light coalition, stating that it has harmed everyone involved. Despite this, it's unlikely that the Greens would abandon their role as a stabilizing force in the coalition.
The fact that the Left Party (BSW) performed significantly better than the SPD, Greens, and FDP combined in Thuringia, and that the AfD is now almost three times as strong as the traffic light coalition in that state, highlights the struggles faced by the coalition parties.
