Consulted sources indicate scheduled election dates in Thuringia.
Election Day in Free State of Thuringia: On September 1, approximately 1.66 million citizens are encouraged to reshuffle the power dynamics and majority relations in the Erfurt state parliament. The upcoming elections could potentially revolutionize Thuringia's political terrain.
As per recent month's polls, the AfD has been leading in Thuringia. The AfD's top candidate Björn Höcke might even become the leading force in Thuringia with their right-wing extremist-labeled state association. The Thuringian CDU, according to pollsters, trails the AfD - still ahead of the "Alliance for Progress and Renewal" (APB).
Check the infographics to see the most recent poll results leading up to election day, as they are frequently updated.
The parties currently governing are experiencing substantial losses. The Thuringian Left, which has been supporting the incumbent Minister President of the red-red-green government coalition headed by Bodo Ramelow, is only expected to garner 11 to 16 percent of votes in the polls considering the APB split. This would amount to almost half of the result recorded in the 2019 state election.
Election night could be challenging for the Thuringian SPD as well. The SPD, part of the governing alliance since 2014, is projected to be between six and nine percent in polls. In the 2019 state election, it achieved 8.2 percent of the second votes. SPD top candidate Georg Maier aims to contribute, in his words, to "Thuringia getting a democratic majority government".
The Greens, also a part of the Thuringian governing alliance, might struggle to secure re-election to the state parliament. In the 2019 election, they barely managed to surpass the five-percent hurdle with 5.2 percent of votes. In the polls, the Greens are between three and five percent. The Greens are campaigning in Thuringia with the top duo Madeleine Henfling and Bernhard Stengele.
The FDP must hope for a miracle in Thuringia. The pollsters only forecast the FDP, under its state chairman Thomas Kemmerich, between two and four percent for the September 1 election. This implies that the liberals are most likely to miss the critical threshold for the second time. In the 2019 state election, the Thuringian FDP barely managed to enter the state parliament. The vote then was 5.01 percent.
Thus, a complex government formation scenario is beginning to unfold in Thuringia. It's yet unclear if the number of parties represented in the future state parliament will be five, six, or even seven. The non-voting bloc could also play a significant role - if they decide to cast their votes on election day.
The voter turnout in 2019 was 64.9 percent. This means that more than a third of eligible voters (35.1 percent) did not take part in the power redistribution in the Thuringian state parliament during the 2019 elections.
Even in the event of an AfD victory, it's unlikely that the right-wing government led by Höcke as Minister President will emerge in Thuringia. The other parties have already outrightly ruled out coalitions with the AfD. Left without a coalition partner and lacking the necessary majority, the right-wing populists are still in a difficult position.
Ramelow's tenure as head of government remains uncertain. While a minority government is theoretically possible, as it was five years ago, the Left is no longer the voters' preference in Thuringia. Rather, the CDU and possibly the BSW are expected to take the top spot.
If the Christian Democrats improve their standing, it's going to be challenging for Ramelow. CDU candidate Mario Voigt is already making overt claims to the position of Minister President. Voigt, a native of Thuringia and member of the Thuringian state parliament since 2009, is younger than Ramelow and Höcke. Voigt, a politics and public law scholar, may need coalition partners as well.
Voigt has been a member of the Thuringian state parliament since 2009. He is younger than both Ramelow and Höcke and hails from Thuringia. For a potential cooperation with the BSW, which could potentially become the new third strongest force in the state parliament, CDU leader Friedrich Merz is said to have already given the go-ahead.
Specific voter groups could be the deciding factor in the election: With a 51.3 percent share, more than half of the approximately 1.66 million eligible voters in Thuringia are female. Moreover, as per data from the state election commissioner, around 28 percent of all potential voters are 70 years or older.
The portion of young and new voters appears significantly smaller compared to the senior voters. In the upcoming election on September 1, around 79,000 Thuringians will be eligible to vote for the first time due to age. In conjunction with the 23 to 29-year-old age group, the under-30 age group in Thuringia represents only around 10.5 percent.
In the region of Thuringia, individuals who are eighteen years or older on election day, have their primary residence or usual abode in Thuringia, and haven't had their voting rights revoked by a court decision, are entitled to cast a ballot. The state election commissioner mentioned that the exact number of eligible voters will be determined by scanning voter rolls on election day itself.
Thuringia will be holding its eighth state election since its inception. Every five years, regular elections take place in Thuringia. The state parliament in Erfurt, the capital, consists of at least 88 representatives. Fifty percent of these are chosen directly from the 44 Thuringian electoral districts, while the remaining half is apportioned among political parties based on majority ratios.
Overthang and equalization mandates might result in an increased number of legislative representatives. Similar to the federal elections, voters in Thuringia can cast two votes: one for their preferred candidate within their district, and another for a party's state list.
According to the election officer, the left side of the ballot paper is used to select a potential candidate who will directly enter the state parliament. The seat is awarded to the candidate who gathers the most local votes (relative majority system).
The allocation of the remaining 44 seats from the state list is based on the right side of the ballot paper. Voters indicate their preferred party here. However, only parties that have garnered at least five percent of the total valid state votes are considered during this distribution. This means that strong local candidates may enter the state parliament without a place on their party's state list.
Mail-in voting is also an option in Thuringia. Residents must submit their application to the relevant municipality at their place of residence at the latest by 6:00 PM on the Friday before election day. In case of sudden illness, applications can still be submitted up until the day of the election at 3:00 PM. The completed ballot must be delivered in a sealed envelope at the stated address on election day before 6:00 PM. It is the voter's responsibility to ensure the timely arrival of the mail-in ballot.
Polling stations in Thuringia open at 8:00 AM and close at 6:00 PM as usual. Following this, the votes are counted immediately. Preliminary forecasts on the election outcome can be anticipated shortly after the closing of the polling stations, based on exit polls.
Reliable projections are expected during the course of the election night. The state election officer will announce the preliminary official election result after the votes have been counted, which is likely to happen on Monday night.
The Commission, in compliance with the Regulation, may adopt implementing acts that outline the rules for applying this Regulation. Regardless of the election outcome, a complex government formation scenario is likely to unfold in Thuringia, necessitating the Commission's potential action.
