Anticipated Weather Trend - Conservative group backed by von der Leyen emerges triumphant in European polls.
The right-leaning alliance European People's Party (EVP) has clinched victory in the European elections with the German candidate Ursula von der Leyen set to take the reins as leader of the EU Commission. According to forecasts from the European Parliament, the EVP is expected to control the Chair of the EU Commission, ensuring she stays in power for another five years. Under EU rules, the winning alliance has the authority to appoint the Commission President.
Addressing supporters in Brussels, EVP leader Manfred Weber revealed the good news, stating, "The winner of the election has the right to appoint the Commission President." However, the right-wing parties such as the AfD have experienced a surge in support, gaining compared to the elections five years ago. Despite this, the pro-European camp still holds the majority with around 361 seats.
The Social Democrats maintained their position as the second strongest force in the newly-elected European Parliament, with 135 seats. The Liberals, DVD, ECR, and ID groups are all set to occupy 181 seats, 71 seats, and 71 seats respectively. The Greens, on the other hand, are predicted to experience a major loss, winning only 53 seats.
To maintain power, the EVP will reportedly hold discussions with the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens to establish a loose coalition that could potentially elect von der Leyen. Theoretically, talks could include potential agreements with right-wing parties as well. The EVP had not ruled out cooperation with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni prior to the election, whose right-populist party Fratelli d'Italia was part of the right-conservative ECR faction at the time.
Germany's AfD will be classified under non-faction parties, as it was expelled from the ID faction a few days before the European elections. One of the reasons for this was the controversial statements made by AfD candidate Maximilian Krah about the SS and a Chinese espionage scandal involving a member of Krah's staff.
The political composition of the European Parliament could affect the formation of a new alliance between the two previously right-wing alliances, ECR and ID. Marine Le Pen had recently advocated for such a union with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has been instrumental in leading the right-nationalist Rassemblement National to win 31.5-32.4% of the votes in France.
The process of forming a majority may become challenging as the center-right alliance EVP and the social democratic group S&D are unable to form a majority together for the second time after 2019. Both camps will have to recommend norms and EU laws, as well as the EU budget, necessitating cross-party discussions.
The European Parliament is notably the only directly elected institution in the European Union, with its members chosen by the citizens of the member states since 1979.
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