#EP2024: Upcoming Election Predictions and Analysis - Concluding the European election campaign: Union, Greens, and Left parties
Today marks the conclusion of the European election campaigns for the Union, Greens, and Left parties. In Munich, CDU's European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, seeking a second term, and CDU Chairman Friedrich Merz will address their supporters. TheCDU and CSU are likely to win the European election in Germany, according to polls.
The Greens will hold their campaign finale in Cologne this afternoon with speakers including party chairpersons Ricarda Lang and Omid Nouripour and lead candidate Terry Reintke. The Left is wrapping up their campaign in Potsdam, led by party leaders Janine Wissler, Martin Schirdewan, and co-lead candidate Carola Rackete. The SPD will follow on Saturday, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaking in Duisburg. The FDP completed their campaign on Thursday evening in Düsseldorf.
Today, the European election is set to be discussed in the German parliament as part of a 70-minute debate on current European politics.
In a ZDF-Politbarometer Extra survey for the European election in Germany, the Union is shown as the strongest party, while the Greens are predicted to suffer significant losses compared to the 2019 election. The Union could see a slight improvement in their 2019 results, receiving 30% of the votes. The Greens now hold 14%, down from 20.5% in 2019.
The Research Group Wahlen points out that the survey results only reflect the current sentiment of the parties and are not a prediction for the election outcome. Moreover, 42% of respondents are undecided on their vote.
The AfD and SPD are tied at 14% in the latest survey, with the FDP standing at 4% and the Left at 3%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is at 7%.
61% of respondents have expressed strong or very strong interest in the election, while 38% have shown less or no interest. This indicates that voter turnout will be similar to 2019.
The Netherlands held the first votes for the European election yesterday, with 13.5 million eligible voters able to cast their ballots. Initial projections show a tight race between the left-green coalition of the Labor Party and Green Party GroenLinks, and the radical-right party for freedom (PVV) led by populist Geert Wilders.
The left-green coalition of Labor Party and Green Party GroenLinks is on track to win eight of the 31 seats, while the PVV is expected to win seven.
After the Netherlands, Ireland and the Czech Republic will vote today, with Italy, Latvia, Malta, and Slovakia voting tomorrow. The remaining countries will vote on Sunday. A total of 360 million Europeans, including 61 million Germans, will decide on the 720 members of parliament, with 96 coming from Germany.
Unlike in German federal elections, German minor parties can enter the European Parliament with low single-digit vote shares. Since there's no predetermined percentage threshold to reach, they can gain representation. However, some EU countries have threshold clauses, such as France, Italy, Greece, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. In Germany, this rule is only set to be reintroduced at the next European election in 2029, with a minimum of two percent. The Bundestag decided this in the previous year.
SPD sets conditions for support of von der Leyen
Recently, the SPD has formulated demands for the future EU Commission and made its support for a second term for EU Commission President von der Leyen conditional. "A president or head of the European Commission who builds on the support of the enemies of democracy and the rule of law will not be supported by the European Social Democrats," the paper from the Commission on International Politics of the SPD party executive states, as reported by the news site ntv.de and provided to the German Press Agency. Von der Leyen has not ruled out cooperation with the right-wing ECR faction. The faction also includes the ultraconservative Fratelli d'Italia party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
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- Germany is expected to significantly influence the outcome of the upcoming European elections, with the CDU and CSU leading in polls.
- The conclusion of the European election campaign for the Union, Greens, and Left parties is taking place today, with major speeches in cities like Munich and Cologne.
- In Munich, CDU's Ursula von der Leyen, seeking a second term as European Commission President, and CDU Chairman Friedrich Merz will address their supporters.
- The Greens will hold their campaign finale in Cologne, with party leaders and lead candidates addressing the crowd, while the Left will wrap up their campaign in Potsdam.
- The SPD will conclude their campaign on Saturday in Duisburg, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz set to speak.
- The FDP completed their campaign on Thursday evening in Düsseldorf, preparing for the European elections set to take place today in the German parliament.
- There is strong interest in the European elections among German voters, with 61% expressing strong or very strong interest, indicating similar voter turnout to 2019.
- The Netherlands held the first votes for the European election yesterday, with projections showing a tight race between left-green coalition parties and the radical-right party for freedom.
- The left-green coalition of the Labor Party and Green Party GroenLinks is projected to win eight seats, while the radical-right party for freedom is expected to win seven.
- The European elections will continue in Ireland and the Czech Republic today, with many other countries voting in the coming days, including Germany on Sunday.
- German minor parties can enter the European Parliament with low single-digit vote shares, thanks to the absence of a predetermined percentage threshold to reach.
- The SPD has formulated demands for the future EU Commission and made their support for a second term for EU Commission President von der Leyen conditional, due to concerns about cooperation with right-wing parties.
