- Competitive matchup between CDU and AfD in Saxony's political arena
Quite an intriguing query ahead of vote day in Saxony: Which party will emerge as the strongest in the region? Research conducted by Forsa on behalf of RTL reveals that the difference between the CDU, led by Minister President Michael Kretschmer, and the AfD has narrowed. The CDU currently stands at 33%, while the AfD, on the other hand, clocks in at 31%. This represents a 1% increase for the AfD since the initial survey in early August. The gap between the two parties is minuscule, falling within the tolerance margin for representative polls.
Interestingly, the SPD in Saxony also shows a 1% increase, climbing from 6% to 7%. Conversely, the BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, experiences a 1% decrease, now standing at 12%. The figures for the Greens (6%) and the Left (3%) remain the same. The FDP remains below the 3% mark, categorizing it alongside other parties whose collective total would amount to 8%.
AfD on Top in Thuringia Polls
In Thuringia, the shifts compared to early August's survey are nominal. The AfD, led by Björn Höcke, retains its leading position with 30%. The CDU also sees a minor increase to 22%. The Left, under the leadership of Minister President Bodo Ramelow, also experiences a slight improvement, jumping from 13% to 14%. In contrast, the BSW loses 1% (17%). The SPD's figures remain constant at 7%. The Greens continue to miss the threshold to enter the state parliament with a 4% score. The remaining parties, including the FDP, currently make up 6%.
The repercussions of the Solingen knife attack on the election seem to be less significant than initially anticipated. In Saxony, only 18% believe that the terrorist act has a substantial impact on their voting decision. Meanwhile, in Thuringia, the effects of Solingen may be more pronounced: 35% claim it has a significant effect, 48% report a minor influence, and 9% report no impact at all.
Forsa acknowledges that the opinion formation in both states remains incomplete. Supporters of the AfD and BSW generally avoid postal voting, opting instead for voting at polling stations. This leaves them ample room to change their minds before the final count.
The data was collected by Forsa for RTL Germany between August 27 and 29, 2024, through the population-representative Forsa-Omninet panel online and phone surveys. The sample sizes for Saxony and Thuringia are 1012 and 1005 respondents, respectively. The margin of error tolerance for both surveys is +/- 3 percentage points. Stern is part of RTL Germany.
In the context of the data collection for RTL Germany, Forsa used a population-representative panel to gather information in both Saxony and Thuringia, ensuring their findings are accurate within a tolerance margin of +/- 3 percentage points. Despite the significance of the Solingen knife attack, only 18% of Saxony voters and a higher 35% of Thuringia voters believe it will significantly affect their voting decision, leaving room for change among AfD and BSW supporters who typically avoid postal voting.
