War in Ukraine - Collapse in Donbass - Putin's strategy in action
Two months ago, the Kremlin opened a new hot zone north of Kharkiv. The motives were various. To capture the million-city, the number of troops was insufficient. However, the attacks could encourage the population to flee and cripple the metropolis's economy. The Kremlin then wanted to establish a buffer zone on the Ukrainian side of the border to end the shelling of the Russian city of Belgorod.
The real goal, however, was something else. To protect the second-largest city of Ukraine, Kiev had to send its reserve troops to the front, even withdrawing elite units from the front in the east and sending them north. There, Kiev managed to contain the initially critical situation but not clean it up. The Russians could not advance further, but the Ukrainians could not decisively push them back. In the small town of Woltschansk, the enemies are holding out in a mutual encirclement between the part of the city still held by Kiev – the Citadel – and the partially captured industrial area.
Videos document the movements of the frontline
Verifying the casualty numbers and those of the enemy is challenging, even with some success stories. However, it's different when it comes to ground movements. The times when every soldier could publish video clips have passed. But both sides continue to document their successes daily with a flood of videos. These can be located, so one knows roughly where Russians and Ukrainians are currently, for example, at the larger housing blocks in Woltschansk.
The Donbass front is slipping. In the north, there is a murderous stalemate, while Putin's strategy is working in the east. Since the Kharkiv front, the Russians have been advancing relentlessly there. There are no deep, operational breakthroughs, which are unlikely in this war. It remains positional fighting. However, the Russians consistently make gains of several kilometers in depth. For example, they dig tunnels under the front, use existing pipes, or an attack by storm troops with Quads and Enduros is successful.
Kiev cannot even return one of these advances. On the contrary: If the Russians have a "finger" in the Ukrainian territory, they extend it in all directions. In the language of Soviet doctrine: They are "bringing the flower to bloom." Compared to the mobile battles of the Second World War, this is all still happening in slow motion. At three decisive points, the Russians have achieved significant successes. In the city of Krasnogorovka, they have driven out the Ukrainians from the quarters with high, solid construction after months of fighting. The defenders will not be able to hold the remaining quarters from dugouts. In fact, the city has fallen, although the Ukrainians can still cling to their outskirts for a few weeks.
The situation is not yet dire at the fortress of Tschassiw Jar. Here, the Russians have taken all territory east of the Donbass Canal and are now trying to flank the western part, as they did with the eastern part. So far, the Ukrainians have only been able to slow down their advance, but not stop it. A similar situation exists near the settlements around New York, the Russian name being Nowhorodske. The Russians have reached the center and threaten to cut off the adjacent Ukrainian troops and their fortifications.
In the Donbass, firefighting units are missing
In the Donbass, there is a shortage of firefighting units.
Once again, the numerical inferiority of the Ukrainians is evident. To push back the Russians, they launch a counterattack with just one armored personnel carrier and a handful of soldiers. The elite formations, who were fighting in Charkiw, are missing. They had previously taken on the role of the front-line firefighters. Where it seemed the Russians were about to break through, they were sent and were able to hold the line in many cases. Without these well-equipped and motivated troops, it is not possible.
The better supply of artillery shells could not significantly stop the Russians. Drone footage provides a deceptive image of the war. These types of individual victories say little to nothing about the course of combat operations. They do, however, show that Kiev can at least hold its own in the drone war. However, one should not forget that the Russians also show such videos. For example, two observation drones spot a US M1 Abrams tank and then a dozen FPV drones attack it. More significant are the blows in the depth, such as the Himars rocket launchers of Ukraine. But even here, Kiev, despite the latest deliveries from the USA, does not have clear control. Russian observation drones can operate deep in Ukrainian territory and call for strikes from Iskander rockets if they deem it a worthwhile target.
How long can the Ukrainians hold out?
Kiev's hopes since the beginning of the war have been based on the assumption that Russia is suffering much greater losses than Kiev. Evidence for this includes the stopped attacks of the Russians by drones and artillery. However, it is becoming clear that many attacks have been successful recently. And the positions of Ukrainian defenders are being pulverized by weapons like Russian glide bombs and their thermobaric rocket launchers, along with the soldiers. It is currently unclear whether the months-long Russian pressure on Ukrainian positions is easing.
The second hope is based on the assumption that Russia will no longer be able to bring sufficiently armored vehicles to the front by around the end of 2025. The majority of the "new" Russian combat tanks, armored personnel carriers, and transporters consist of refurbished and modernized models that have been sitting in storage. And these storage facilities are emptying out rapidly. It remains to be seen how the Russian leadership intends to address this foreseeable shortage. Either they will be able to organize additional old material or significantly increase the complete new build. In all cases, the time until the end of 2025 is long. Too long for the troops in the east, who must hold out until then.
The short-term hope lies with the fighter jets of the F-16 and Mirage types. They are supposed to stop the Russian bomber offensive and then enable strikes in the Russian hinterland. Whether they will be successful, the next months will show. If not, it looks bad for free Ukraine.
The conflict in Ukraine has extended to the region north of Charkiw, with Russia aiming to establish a buffer zone near the Ukrainian-Russian border to reduce the shelling of Belgorod. Despite sending reserve troops and withdrawing elite units from the east, Ukraine has managed to contain but not eliminate the threat in the small town of Volchansk.
Russian troops have made significant gains in the east, particularly in Krasnogorovka, where they have driven out Ukrainian forces from quarters with high, solid construction after months of fighting. Despite Ukrainian attempts to counterattack with limited resources, the Russians continue to advance and extend their territorial control in the region.
