Thesis 1: Scholz need not fear a revolt, but clear words from his party
SPD federal party conference - Clear messages to Scholz, but no reckoning: five theses on the meeting of the chancellor's party
What will Olaf Scholz say? As things stand now: Not what his party wants him to say. On Saturday morning, the Federal Chancellor will speak at the SPD federal party conference in Berlin. Contrary to his comrades' hopes, Scholz has not yet succeeded in presenting a solution for the 2024 budget. According to SPD circles, the 2024 budget can no longer be passed this year. "Although we have done everything we can from our side," wrote SPD parliamentary group manager Katja Mast in a message to MPs on Thursday, according to stern.
This increases the pressure on Scholz. If the Chancellor cannot even announce a political consensus with the coalition partners, Scholz will at least have to explain himself to the 600 delegates. If he also holds out the prospect of cuts in social benefits - a red rag for the SPD - things will get really uncomfortable. Problematic proposals could considerably restrict Scholz's room for negotiation. This would make the tough talks with the Greens and FDP even tougher.
Although Scholz need not fear a palace revolution, the stumbling chancellor's party cannot afford to have a duped chancellor. For the comrades, Scholz is quite simply too big to fail. However, he must create clarity and show his party a way out of the misery that goes beyond his previous empty words of confidence. Otherwise the rumblings in the SPD will seek an outlet - possibly in the debate following his speech. The least that can be done is to issue clear warnings to the grassroots against a slashing of the welfare state.
Thesis 2: The party leaders must tremble - the Chancellor does not
Both promised a new beginning, both now have to justify what has become of it: Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil are standing for re-election as dual leaders on Friday. The "social democratic decade" that the co-chairs proclaimed two years ago will come to an abrupt end given the current poll figures: The SPD had become the strongest force in the 2021 federal election with 25.7%, today it is at best on 17% - far behind the AfD and very far behind the CDU/CSU.
The incessant crisis management, including within the scrappy traffic light system, and the reluctance to enter into conflict with its own chancellor have taken their toll on the party's profile. General Secretary Kevin Kühnert, who is also running for re-election, says that there is a "great need in the SPD to move from reacting to acting". They want to set issues again. Esken and Klingbeil also want to do this with their key motion. A higher tax burden for top earners, for example, should make red hearts beat faster. However, the fact that the comrades are longing for self-assurance and want more social democracy in the "progressive coalition" is also down to them. The party leadership has so far avoided confrontation with the government's course. The (dis)satisfaction with its leadership will be reflected in the election results.
Thesis 3: The secret star of the party conference could be Rolf Mützenich
After Scholz's pale government statement on the budget crisis, SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich also took the floor - and made up for what the Chancellor had previously omitted: a clear statement, both internally (to the SPD parliamentary group) and externally (to the coalition partners). An appreciative and relieved murmur went through the ranks of the SPD parliamentary group when its chairman defined the SPD's position: the debt rule in the Basic Law needs "fundamental corrections", said Mützenich, the "indiscriminately grasped political size" should not be paraded as a "monstrance". Shortly after the Karlsruhe ruling, Mützenich had already dared to come out of hiding. While Scholz was still quietly sounding out the situation, the SPD parliamentary group leader went on the attack - in interviews, in speeches. And possibly at the party conference on Saturday afternoon.
Thesis 4: The rich shouldn't come to the party conference (and the FDP better not either)
What does the SPD stand for? This is to be discussed at length from Friday to Sunday. Regardless of the sensitivities of the coalition partners. Higher taxes for the rich, an increase in the minimum wage, reform of the debt brake - if the proposals are anything to go by, the SPD will include many goals in its program that are practically impossible to achieve with its coalition partner, the FDP. A farewell to the traffic light? "We are positioning ourselves as the SPD," said co-party leader Klingbeil in the stern interview, without going into detail about the discrepancy between the party and government course. The message between the lines: The party no longer wants to play the role of mediator and moderator.
Thesis 5: Two key issues will cause a lot of controversy: migration and the debt brake
The SPD is facing a tough debate on migration policy in particular. Chancellor Scholz's slogan of "finally" wanting to deport people "on a grand scale" has caused some serious irritation among many Social Democrats. The party leadership is now apparently trying to address this displeasure: As reported by the "Tagesspiegel" newspaper, the SPD leadership intends to introduce a motion on Saturday that distances itself from the government's course. It is intended to address many aspects of critical motions from the grassroots, such as sea rescue and family reunification. The debate on the debt brake is likely to be no less controversial. The SPD leadership is aiming for a reform, but this does not go far enough for the party's new generation. "We as Jusos want to go one step further and completely remove the debt brake from the Basic Law," announced Juso leader Philipp Türmer in the "Süddeutsche Zeitung". This will also be reflected in motions.
The SPD will define its position and reaffirm its principles. But one thing is equally certain: it will not be a cuddly party conference.
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Source: www.stern.de
