China is persistently increasing the tension gauges.
The inauguration of Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te, was marked by saber-rattling from Beijing. This aligns with China's recent attitude, claims Taiwan expert Klaus Bardenhagen. The author and journalist recently published a book covering the history and background of the conflict, as well as Taiwanese culture and daily life. On ntv.de, he discusses Lai's goals, economic ties between Taiwan and China, and Donald Trump.
ntv.de: Why should a German audience care about the newly-sworn-in Taiwanese president?
Klaus Bardenhagen: Considering Taiwan as a potential crisis point is no longer ignorable. Escalation could have drastic consequences, from a global economic crisis to political instability. In recent years, attention towards Taiwan has increased, but there's still a lack of understanding about its history, the conflict with the People's Republic, and their culture.
Lai Ching-te, the newly-elected president, is from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). What kind of relationship does he want with the People's Republic?
He desires a peaceful neighborly relationship on equal terms. The DPP believes Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, is an independent state - both in terms of the island's disconnected history from the mainland and its political development during the past decades.
Does he want to declare independence?
The term 'independence' is often misinterpreted. From a Taiwanese perspective, the country has been independent for a while, after adopting the name the Republic of China. Despite having limited diplomatic relations, Taiwan operates similarly to a sovereign nation. A public declaration of independence would entail changing the name, and potentially facing Chinese aggression. Lai and his party understand that this path is not viable.
What does Lai envision instead?
He hopes China will stop forcing Taiwan to remain isolated in the global community. Besides, Beijing must cease the military threats against Taiwan.
The election outcome in January is ambiguous. While Lai became the president, his Progressive Party lost its parliamentary majority. Does this suggest Taiwanese public opinion is uncertain regarding relations with China?
Although Lai secured the presidency, his party failed to retain a majority in the parliamentary elections. This shows that even the Kuomintang (KMT), considering itself closer to China, isn't completely onboard with submission to the People's Republic. This can be traced back to the historical roots of the KMT: It was founded on the mainland in 1912, ruled there until losing the civil war against the Communists in 1949, and eventually migrated to Taiwan. There, it governed until the 1980s. Unlike the DPP, the KMT struggles with abandoning its Chinese identity while opposing Beijing's regime. Facing China's current stance, the KMT perceives decreasing potential for cooperative relations.
Was Beijing's response to Lai's inauguration more intense than usual?
Although intense, it conforms to Beijing's stance over the past few years. Since 2019, China seems uninterested in a peaceful resolution. Xi Jinping has explicitly stated that the Taiwan issue cannot be put on hold indefinitely and that the use of force is not ruled out.
How does this new approach manifest concretely?
China is practicing military intimidation and maintaining a blockade around Taiwan - for example, after Nancy Pelosi, the then-Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited during the summer of 2022. This was the first instance of China instigating aggressive military exercises near the island. Beijing has been sending fighter jets over the unofficial median line in the Taiwan Strait regularly. China is reversing the role of the conflict's regulator.
Is there an informal hotline between Taiwan and China to prevent an inadvertent escalation?
There's no official hotline. In 2016, China severed all government connections when Tsai Ing-wen from the Democratic Progressive Party won the presidency. She advocated for dialogue while being accused of separatism, a charge now made towards Lai as well. Image
Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022 led to a surge in military tensions between China and the island of Taiwan. This incident was a catalyst in the People's Republic taking a more aggressive stance against Taiwan.The recent ease of tensions and the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan raised concerns about militarily conflict. The People's Republic of China conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, with over 100 fighter jets overflying the island, just one week after she left.The situation between Taiwan and the People's Republic has been heightened, given China's escalating threats and Beijing's military drills near the island. Additionally, Chinese jets have continued to overfly Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone.It is suggested that China might be attempting to desensitize the West to its threats and normalize the intimidation. By constantly demonstrating its military superiority, Beijing can gather valuable information regarding the speed of Taiwanese response. The potential for a miscalculation or inadvertent escalation is a high risk.What's more, there have been calls for the U.S. and other countries to bolster Taiwan's defenses as a response to the heightened risk of conflict with China. Image
China has suspended large amounts of Taiwan's produce imports, including vegetables and fruit. This is only the latest action in their increasing sanctions against Taiwan. They also halted the import of bilateral travel agents, among other measures. This move may be in revenge for Pelosi's controversial trip to the island.
In recent times, there was uproar in the legislature due to a KMT-initiated law, which provides the government with more authority. The Democratic Progressive Party suggests that China could be backing this move. Do you feel this is conceivable?
Recently, KMT legislators traveled to Beijing and met with government officials as well as a member of the Communist Party's Politburo. Not long after, the party attempted to swiftly pass this legislation. Though there are concerns regarding Chinese involvement, no proof has surfaced. This law serves to split the parliament and propel societal division. The People's Republic is adept at employing multiple tactics at once. They can simultaneously threaten militarily while enticing with economic advantages.
How strong is the economic relationship between these two nations?
China remains one of Taiwan's main export destinations. The majority of this trade revolves around semiconductors. These items are manufactured in Taiwan, assembled into smartphones or computers in China, and then dispersed worldwide. There is a mutual reliance: Taiwanese electronics companies like Foxconn operate factories in Mainland China with workers totaling hundreds of thousands. China has a vested interest in this arrangement functioning harmoniously. Nonetheless, Taiwan has more recently turned to Southeast Asia, India, and Vietnam. Particularly, small and medium-sized companies have reduced or even withdrawn their investments in China.
Can economic interdependence and reliance prevent an invasion of Taiwan?
In relation to the semiconductor industry, it would be incredibly unwise for China to attack Taiwan. For instance, Dutch firm ASML provides machinery for microchip production, possessing a "kill switch" that could be activated from afar. Additionally, the semiconductor industry depends on raw materials from the chemical industry - also from German companies. If China invaded the island without significant damage, the semiconductor industry would cease to operate. Consequently, a military assault, complete with its risks and costs, could be Beijing's final resort.
Has Taiwan been vying for global support for a considerable period of time? What do you anticipate from the government in this context?
The federal government could at least cease to be more cautious than other EU countries. These nations have no qualms with the Taiwanese foreign minister's visits. The highest state representatives of Taiwan are even denied entry into the country. For example, the new vice president, who was not yet in office at the time, intended to drive from Frankfurt to the Czech Republic with a rental car. This was denied. Such denials do not sit well with Taiwan, especially given that the first TSMC semiconductor factory in Europe is being established in Dresden. Germany ought to be less guarded, at the very least. Additionally, there's constant debate over whether a German navy vessel should navigate through the Taiwan Strait or not. These discussions represent small propaganda victories for China. A diminished fear of Taiwan and greater self-assurance toward Beijing would be advantageous.
Could the United States undergo a fundamental policy shift if Donald Trump is re-elected in the fall?
During his earlier term, concerns arose that Trump might consider Taiwan as a negotiating pawn to secure deals with Xi. Nevertheless, this did not transpire. Instead, the US took a confrontational stance toward the People's Republic. Joe Biden has perpetuated this stance. Nonetheless, Trump is impulsive and erratic; as president, he could alter the course of US policy with a single statement. Regrettably, Trump poses an uncertainty factor for Taiwan's future.
Read also:
Despite the tensions between China and Taiwan escalating, Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's new president, continues to advocate for a peaceful relationship with China onto equal terms. This stance aligns with the Democratic Progressive Party's belief that Taiwan is an independent state, both historically and politically. However, recent actions by China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, such as military intimidation and the blocking of Taiwanese exports, suggest a more aggressive approach towards Taiwan.
