Chancellor question: Merz is clear ahead of Scholz among Germany's Elite
The next Bundestag election is still some time in the future. For the upcoming German chancellor, it is clear for the German elite: Merz, the CDU chairman. Corporate executives, top politicians, and civil servants have lost faith in Chancellor Scholz.
Almost 14 months before the Bundestag election, the decision-makers in Germany are clearly leaning towards Friedrich Merz as the next Federal Chancellor. This is one of the results in the latest "Elitepanel" of the Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach on behalf of "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" (FAZ) and the business magazine "Capital". When asked which candidate would make a better chancellor in the current situation, 64% of the top managers, top politicians, and civil servants now favor Merz, while only 33% prefer Scholz. In the last survey before about eight months ago, both were neck and neck - with 47% for Merz and 49% for Scholz, even with a slight advantage for the incumbent from the SPD.
The advantage for crisis manager Scholz is hardly visible today. In response to the question of whether they would give Chancellor and potential SPD candidate Olaf Scholz a chance for a spectacular catch-up campaign similar to 2021, about 86% answered "No". Only 12% believe Scholz and his SPD can make up the gap to the Union and Friedrich Merz again. The repeated attempt by Scholz to position himself as a "peace chancellor" regarding further arms deliveries to Ukraine falls flat among the decision-makers: 56% consider this course incorrect, and 67% also do not believe that Scholz's restraint will politically benefit him.
In general, the work of the traffic light coalition is finding less and less approval - in the "Elitepanel", 85% of the respondents now say they are disappointed with it. Only 9% say they are satisfied. Energy and economic policy perform particularly poorly: Almost 73% say that the German location is "not good" or "less good" for them, 27% consider the economic location "good" or "very good". Almost 70% agreed with the statement from BDI President Siegfried Russwurm that the last two years of the traffic light government have been "lost years" - interestingly, not only mainly supporters of Union parties (89%), but also 76% of FDP supporters. The mood picture is exactly reversed among SPD and Greens supporters.
The "Elitepanel" of the IfD Allensbach on behalf of FAZ and Capital is the most prominent survey in Europe. From June 17 to July 5, 2024, 484 decision-makers from business, politics, and state administrations were interviewed. Among them were 136 members of the boards of large corporations, 89 top politicians, and 44 top civil servants.
The entire Elitepanel article appears in the new issue of "Capital" (issue 8/2024) and online here.
- The Business Federation of German Industries (BDI) president, Siegfried Russwurm, referred to the last two years of the TrafficCoalition government as "lost years."
- Despite his efforts to position himself as a "peace chancellor" regarding arms deliveries to Ukraine, Olaf Scholz's approach is deemed incorrect by 56% of the surveyed elite.
- Friedrich Merz, the CDU chairman, has gained significant support from corporate executives, top politicians, and civil servants, with 64% preferring him as the next Federal Chancellor.
- The TrafficCoalition's work, led by Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz, has received less and less approval, with 85% of the surveyed elite expressing disappointment.
