- Challenges in assembling a coalition government in Thuringia
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) triumphs, the left-leaning coalition falls apart: Following the remarkable performance of the AfD in the state election, a complicated process of government formation awaits in Thuringia. At present, a potential alliance between the CDU, BSW, and SPD is not expected to garner a majority of seats in the state legislature. Consequently, they would need to incorporate The Left; however, the CDU has ruled out collaborating with this party at their federal congress.
In accordance with estimates from ARD and ZDF, the AfD, led by state chairman Björn Höcke, has finished first, marking the first instance since its establishment in 2013 where the AfD has secured the highest number of votes in a state election. The AfD, classified as a reliable far-right extremist party by the Thuringian Office for the Protection of the Constitution, seems unlikely to forge a coalition, as all other parties have rejected the possibility of working with it.
The Left, headed by Minister President Bodo Ramelow, has suffered substantial losses and dropped to fourth place. The SPD has secured a seat in the state legislature, while the Greens have fallen short. The FDP has also failed to qualify.
Forecast: Greens and FDP fail to make it into state legislature
As per estimates, the AfD has increased to 32.9 to 33.2 percent (2019: 23.4 percent), while the CDU has strengthened to 23.6 to 23.7 percent (21.7). The BSW has entered the fray with 15.6 percent, leaving The Left, with which it split, in the dust. The Left has experienced a severe decline and is now at 12.7 to 12.9 percent (31.0).
The parties that comprise the Berlin coalition government have sustained significant losses: The SPD is at 6.0 to 6.1 percent, just above the five percent threshold (8.2), and is on course for its worst result ever in Thuringia. The Greens, formerly part of the state government, are not expected to enter the Erfurt state legislature, along with the FDP, which is projected to drop to 1.2 percent (5.0) according to ARD.
As per projections, the AfD would secure 32 seats (22), the CDU 23 seats (21), and the BSW 15 seats. The Left would claim 12 mandates (29), and the SPD 6 (8). Taken together, CDU, BSW, and SPD would command 44 seats, one short of a majority.
Approximately 1.66 million individuals were entitled to vote. The projected voter turnout is 73.5 to 74.0 percent, compared to 64.9 percent in 2019.
Ramelow: Will take part in government formation negotiations
The existing left-leaning minority coalition, which relied on support from the CDU, no longer has the opportunity to be reinstated. Ramelow, who has presided over the Free State for ten years, now faces the task of forming a government with the CDU's top candidate, Mario Voigt. "The individual from the democratic spectrum who has the most votes must initiate talks, must issue invitations. I will assist anyone responsible for helping us attain a democratic majority in parliament," said the Left official in ARD.
Despite the universal refusal from other parties, AfD top candidate Höcke has declared his intention to engage in negotiations about potential coalitions. The 52-year-old failed to secure a direct mandate in his constituency of Greiz II.
BSW could play a pivotal role in the current scenario. Federal party leader Wagenknecht, who did not run for office herself, has signaled her intention to be a part of potential coalition talks. She wished that the BSW, along with the CDU and, according to current numbers, also the SPD, could establish a sound government in Thuringia, Wagenknecht stated during her election-night celebration in Erfurt.
Wagenknecht reiterated her conditions for her party's participation in a state government. Numerous individuals are deeply disturbed by the issue of peace and reject the proposed deployment of US intermediate-range missiles in Germany by the federal government, she asserted at her election celebration in Erfurt. A state government should consider this desire of the people and advocate for it at the national level.
CDU federal general secretary Carsten Linnemann rejected Wagenknecht's demands to incorporate peace policy as a topic in potential joint government formations in Saxony and Thuringia. "In Erfurt, world politics are not established, but rather, it's about education policy, economic policy, internal security, the issues that truly impact people," he said in ZDF.
CDU leader and state chairman Mario Voigt declared that he would engage with the SPD and its top candidate Georg Maier. Regarding the BSW, he stated: "We will also remain open to dialogue there."
Volatile discourse during the election campaign
The climate during the election campaign was turbulent. The Russian occupation of Ukraine and Germany's role as Ukraine's ally served as a major point of contention.
If the AfD manages to secure more than one-third of the seats in the Thuringian state legislature, it would possess a so-called blocking minority: Decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority would necessitate its approval. For example, the constitutional judges are elected by the parliaments with a two-thirds majority.
In light of the AfD's refusal to collaborate with other parties due to their classification as a far-right extremist party by the Thuringian Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the need for the CDU, BSW, and SPD to incorporate The Left to form a majority becomes crucial. However, the CDU's stance against working with The Left at their federal congress presents a significant challenge in the protection of the Constitution, ensuring a stable and democratic government formation in Thuringia.
