Upcoming European polls - Center-right coalition triumphs in forecasted results.
Following the conclusion of all polling stations, early calculations point towards a triumph for the centrist coalition EVP in the European election. Ursula von der Leyen, the EVP's leading candidate and CDU member, may anticipate a second term as the President of the EU Commission, as the figures released by the European Parliament corroborate this.
The EVP coalition comprising the German parties CDU and CSU has achieved 189 seats (previously 176 out of 705), marking more than a quarter of the total upcoming 720 seats. They still surpass the Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals, as well as the erstwhile right-nationalist and right-populist groupings.
Sizable advancements for right-wing parties
Right-wing parties, like the AfD, have witnessed considerable progress in comparison to the election held five years ago. Although, the clearly pro-European faction still exists as the largest. Despite all right-wing parties uniting, their total seats would likely amount to less than 200, and they would be far from amassing a majority (361 seats).
The second-strongest entity behind the EVP alliance is the Social Democrats, with a projected 135 seats (previously 139). Following them are the Liberals, who have lost 22 seats (previously 102), and the two earlier right-populist party alliances EKR and ID, both of which significantly gained seats: EKR boasts 72 seats (previously 69), and ID has 58 seats (previously 49).
Left out of these projections are the AFDP MPs. The AfD will be categorized under non-fraction parties as they were expelled from the ID alliance due to controversial comments by AfD candidate Maximilian Krah about the SS and a China espionage incident that involves one of Krah's employees.
The Greens are projected to endure massive losses after the first European election post-devastating Corona pandemic and the beginning of the Russian invasion war against Ukraine. They are expected to secure only 52 seats (previously 71).
Negotiations for retaining power
It is speculated that the EVP coalition will engage in talks with the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens in the coming days to reach a loose collaboration that could potentially maintain a majority for Ursula von der Leyen's election. The EVP had already asserted their right to the Commission presidency: The winner of the election is eligible to appoint the Commission President, stated EVP leader Manfred Weber (CSU) on Sunday evening in Brussels.
Representatives from the Greens, Liberals, and Social Democrats hinted at positivity towards negotiations. Green candidate Terry Reintke stated her readiness, while the Liberals and Social Democrats conveyed similar sentiments.
Theoretically, potential collaborations with individual far-right parties could also be considered. Therefore, the EVP had not dispensed with the possibility of cooperating with the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni prior to the election. Her right-wing party Fratelli d'Italia used to belong to the right-conservative EKR faction and secured the highest votes in Italy.
Finding a majority may prove challenging.
The future power dynamics in the parliament also hinge on whether parties from the existing right-wing alliances ECR and ID may merge to form a new alliance. The Frenchwomen Marine Le Pen has been lobbying for this with Italian government leader Meloni. Le Pen's right-wing party Rassemblement National received 31.5 to 32.4% of the votes in France.
Whether the EU policy as a whole will tilt towards the right depends not only on the majorities in the newly elected parliament. The power balance in the EU Council of States is also vital. The result of the French presidential election in 2027 may hold significant implications.
In principle, it could be that the process of finding a majority in the European Parliament becomes more challenging. Based on projections, this marks the second time since 2019 that the center-right coalition EVP and the social democratic group S&D will be unable to form a majority together. Thus, both factions will likely need to seek alliances with other parties for individual votes. Though, the parliament, along with the EU Council of Ministers, is responsible for enacting EU laws and the EU budget.
Higher voter turnout
A preliminary estimation reveals a voter turnout of approximately 51% throughout the EU in the European election. This figure is likely to exceed the participation rate registered five years ago, as announced by the parliament. In 2019, the participation rate was 50.66% as per EU figures.
The European Parliament stands as the solitary directly elected institution in the EU. Its members have been elected by European citizens since 1979. [End of paraphrase]
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- Maximilian Krah, an AfD candidate, has been excluded from the ID alliance due to his controversial comments and the China espionage incident involving one of his employees.
- Despite the progress of right-wing parties like the AfD in the European elections, the centrist coalition EVP, led by Ursula von der Leyen, is projected to secure a majority of seats, likely ensuring her second term as EU Commission President.
- The CDU and CSU, German parties part of the EVP coalition, have achieved significant gains in the European elections, currently holding 189 seats (previously 176 out of 705).
- Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, and her right-wing party Fratelli d'Italia, though not part of the European elections, have secured the highest votes in Italy, potentially opening up cooperation opportunities for the EVP coalition.
- The European Parliament has released figures indicating that the Social Democrats are the second-strongest entity behind the EVP alliance, with a projected 135 seats (previously 139).
- Following the elections, the Liberals have suffered a significant loss of 22 seats, decreasing their total seats to 80 (previously 102).
- Negotiations for forming a coalition to maintain a majority will take place between the EVP coalition, Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens; the AFDP MPs are categorized under non-fraction parties due to their expulsion from the ID alliance.
- Based on current projections, the center-right coalition EVP and the social democratic group S&D will be unable to form a majority together, potentially requiring alliances with other parties for individual votes.
