Voting events - Center-right coalition triumphs in European polls.
The preliminary tally following the shutdown of all polling places demonstrates a triumph for the center-right coalition EVP in the European vote. This means that Ursula von der Leyen, the EVP's lead candidate and a member of the CDU, has a good chance of securing a second tenure as President of the EU Commission, as indicated by the numbers released by the European Parliament.
The center-right alliance, comprising the German parties CDU and CSU, earns 191 seats (previously 176 of 705), making up over a quarter of the upcoming 720 seats. This securely surpasses the Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals, in addition to the previously right-nationalist and right-populist alliances.
Gains for right-wing parties
Right-wing parties, like the AfD, have achieved considerable improvements compared to five years ago. The pro-European camp is still the most significant. Even if all right-wing parties joined forces, they would not reach more than roughly 200 seats and would be far from a majority (361 seats).
The social democrats are anticipated to be one of the strongest groups behind the center-right alliance EVP, regardless of the forecast. They are expected to possess 135 mandates (previously 139). The Liberals, on the other hand, suffer a loss of 19 seats (previously 102), while the two right-populist party alliances ECR and ID show significant growth: ECR garners 71 seats (previously 69), and ID has 57 seats (previously 49).
The AfD MPs are not included in these numbers. The AfD is categorized as a non-faction party, as AfD candidate Maximilian Krah was expelled from the ID faction right before the European vote due to his contentious claims regarding the SS and a China spy case involving one of Krah's assistants.
The Greens are expected to be a significant loser in the European election post-pandemic and Russia's assault on Ukraine. They will likely only earn 53 seats (previously 71).
Bargaining for power retention
The center-right alliance EVP is likely to engage in discussions with the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens over the following days concerning a loose collaboration that could potentially secure a majority for Ursula von der Leyen's re-election as Commission President. EVP leader Manfred Weber (CSU) indicated on Sunday night in Brussels that the EVP has already claimed the Commission presidency: "The winner of the election has the right to select the Commission President," Weber said. Von der Leyen declared the following day that she will converse with the Social Democrats and Liberals about a potential alliance in the EU Parliament. "I have constantly asserted that I wish to build a broad coalition for a robust Europe." She has demonstrated in her initial tenure as Commission President what a strong Europe is capable of achieving. "My aim is to continue this path alongside those who advocate for Europe, Ukraine, and the rule of law."
Representatives of the Greens, Liberals, and Social Democrats all voiced favorable sentiments on Sunday evening. The Green candidate Terry Reintke stated she was prepared to negotiate. The Liberals and Social Democrats conveyed similar perspectives.
In theory, there is also the opportunity for cooperation with individual right-wing parties. The European People's Party (EVP) has not dismissed the notion of a collaboration with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni before the election. Meloni's right-populist party, Fratelli d'Italia, which has historically been part of the conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) faction, received the most votes in Italy.
Scrambling for majorities could become more complex
The difficulty of finding a majority in the European Parliament is also impacted by the potential formation of a new alliance between the previously right-wing alliances ECR and ID. French politician Marine Le Pen has recently advocated for this with Italian Prime Minister Meloni. Le Pen's right-national party, Rassemblement National, gained between 31.5 and 32.4% of the votes in France.
The future political landscape of the parliament will not only be determined by the majorities within the newly elected assembly but also by the dynamics in the EU Council. The French presidential election of 2027 could play a crucial role in this.
Securing a majority for the parliament may become more challenging once again. According to the forecast, this will be the second time since 2019 that the center-right alliance EVP and the social democratic group S&D will be unable to form a majority together. Both groups will need to forge partnerships with other parties for staff assignments and decisions about European laws and the EU budget.
