Ceasefire: An "unwelcome event" for Israel's army
The agreement between Israel and Hamas is a blessing for the released hostages and the suffering civilian population of the Gaza Strip - for Israel's military, however, it is a setback. "From a military point of view, it is an extremely unwelcome event," says military historian Danny Orbach from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, summarizing the ceasefire from the army's perspective. "The greatest danger is that it will lose its momentum."
The military has continued to improve its strategy in recent weeks, explains Orbach. Interrupting the army's operations now is like stopping a well-oiled machine. "It will be harder to get it going again."
The ceasefire, which came into force on Friday, should initially last four days until early Tuesday morning and could then perhaps be extended again. According to the agreement, military activities on both sides could even be suspended for a maximum of ten days.
Orbach: Hamas emerges stronger from the ceasefire
Hamas will emerge stronger from the pause in fighting, emphasizes Orbach. "It is a terrible dilemma for the Israeli government and Israeli society," says Israel's former deputy national security adviser, Eran Lerman, in the magazine "Foreign Policy". However, the army is in a position to resume fighting after the ceasefire.
According to Orbach, Hamas will use the time to reorganize itself. At the same time, the Islamist organization will try to gain insights into the positioning of the Israeli military, among other things. The advantage for Hamas is that its members can move around relatively freely during the ceasefire without fear of attack.
Israeli media also warn that Hamas will use the ceasefire to rearm itself with weapons smuggled from Egypt and to stockpile supplies from the aid. Orbach assumes that the Islamist organization will also secure fuel, which will be delivered as part of the deal with the expanded aid shipments.
The military historian also fears that Hamas could try to bring fleeing residents back to the north via its tunnels, for example. This would thwart the army's evacuation efforts, which could fight more freely without the presence of civilians. "Hamas wants battles in densely populated areas, because civilians are their defense strategy," explains the military historian. The army repeatedly accuses Hamas of abusing civilians as shields.
Hundreds of people return to their homes
According to eyewitness reports, hundreds of people have managed to return from the south to their - largely destroyed - homes in the north since the ceasefire began. Many wanted to look for relatives, check on their homes or fetch things. Israel's military, which issued a ban on return, used tear gas and in some cases live ammunition against Palestinians to prevent them from doing so.
Part of the agreement between the two warring parties is an exchange of up to 100 hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip for up to 300 Palestinian inmates in Israeli prisons. The Islamist organization will therefore continue to hold many of the 240 or so people abducted from Israel as bargaining chips even after the end of the pause in fighting.
Orbach assumes that the ceasefire will remain in place despite possible incidents. "Hamas has no interest in breaking it." Rather, it will try to extend the ceasefire for as long as possible.
The terrorist organization hopes that Israel will gradually reduce its deployment in the Gaza Strip in the course of ceasefires and ultimately agree to a permanent ceasefire, writes the newspaper "Israel Hayom". Despite many good results, Israel is still a long way from achieving its war aims.
The shorter the ceasefire, the better for Israel's army
Following the unprecedented massacre on October 7, Israel's army wants to destroy the military capabilities and leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and bring all the hostages home. The shorter the suspension of fighting, the better from the point of view of the Israeli army, explains military historian Orbach.
According to the army, the Israeli soldiers will remain inside the Gaza Strip during the ceasefire. During this time, the military should concentrate on planning the next phases of the battle, emphasizes spokesman Daniel Hagari. According to Defense Minister Joav Galant, the military should also supply weapons during the "brief respite".
According to military expert Orbach, Israel's forces are also trying to gather information about the enemy during this time. They used eavesdropping technology and binoculars for this purpose. As part of the deal, Israeli air surveillance has been completely suspended in the south of the coastal strip and for six hours a day in the north.
After ceasefire: Israeli army wants to continue campaign
The army is also strengthening its defenses in the Gaza Strip, for example by building barriers and hiding in conquered areas. "From the Israeli army's perspective, the disadvantages of the ceasefire outweigh the advantages," summarizes military historian Orbach. After the ceasefire, the army intends to continue its intensive campaign in the Gaza Strip for at least another two months, announced Defense Minister Galant.
Israeli media speculate that a strengthened Hamas could then put Israeli soldiers in additional danger. Orbach also assumes that significantly more Israeli soldiers will be killed after the resumption of fighting in the coastal area than before. "Ultimately, the lives of the soldiers are being risked to save those of the abductees." But this sacrifice is worth it for the Israelis, the military expert emphasizes.
According to Orbach, the ceasefire is not really decisive for the outcome of the war. Israel could win the war as long as the pressure to conclude a permanent ceasefire is not too great - whether from abroad or from the relatives of the hostages at home.
The ceasefire provides Hamas with an opportunity to regroup and strengthen its position in the Middle East, as highlighted by military historian Orbach. This period of pause in conflicts could allow Hamas to reorganize, gather insights into Israeli military positioning, and potentially rearm, which could pose challenges for Israel in the future.
The military historian also emphasizes that the ceasefire, although unwelcome for Israel's army, provides an opportunity for the army to plan its next moves and gather intelligence, setting the stage for a potential resumption of the intense campaign in the Gaza Strip.
Source: www.dpa.com
