US election campaign - Candidacy on the brink: What's next, Joe Biden?
It has been four years since Joe Biden said, "I see myself as a bridge, as nothing else." There is an entire generation of leadership figures coming after him. "They are the future of this country."
At that time, Biden was still a candidate, and eventually, at the age of 78, he became the oldest President in US history to move into the White House. Today, the focus of the 81-year-old seems not to be quite so much on the new generation as the future of the country - but rather on himself. The Democrat intends to be re-elected in November - once again to defeat the Republican Donald Trump. There is no doubt about it.
The old man and the White House
The fact that his age could become a problem for him was never a secret. Awkward mistakes, stumbling, and forgetfulness during Biden's appearances have long been part of the daily routine of the US President. When he announced last year that he would run again for the Democrats for the presidency and extend his term by four years, it was already clear: Biden's age and the debate about his condition would be his biggest problem in the campaign.
Biden's party, his political allies, and above all his staff have been working hard to conceal his age-related weaknesses and highlight his political achievements. They particularly emphasized Biden's rich experience.
Biden's disastrous performance in the TV debate against Trump, however, resembles a turning point: Suddenly, for everyone to see - and in painful clarity - how it is with that man who shows himself convinced that he can lead the USA for another four years.
NATO summit to be a test
In the coming week, there will be a NATO summit in Washington - supposedly a welcome opportunity for Biden to showcase himself and his leadership skills as the leader of the West. It is certainly no coincidence that the grand jubilee summit falls into the hot phase of the US election campaign in Washington.
However, the NATO meeting and the planned closing press conference now seem more like a test. Every move by the Democrat is closely monitored. A nimble performance alongside foreign state and government heads, on the other hand, could strengthen Biden's position.
Above all, the question hangs over everything: Is Biden capable of doing the job for another four years? The Democrats need an answer - and quickly. After all, the election is only four months away. What could happen then?
Scenario 1: Biden withdraws from the presidential race soon
Biden could announce his withdrawal from the presidential race in the coming days. The important NATO summit would be overshadowed. If Biden waited until after the NATO meeting, the world would only have to look on as a promise-maker and stumbler during his appearance. Originally, the summit was supposed to be about the Ukraine war and the strengthening of the deterrence and defense capabilities of the alliance.
Here is the translated text:
So or so: The chance that Trump will move back into the White House after the election has grown significantly since Biden's TV debacle, according to polls. The Republican has built up his lead over Biden. The affiliated parties must reckon with the fact that the leader of the western world will soon no longer be Biden. Long- or medium-term commitments of the USA should be approached with caution - and Biden might in the current chaotic situation look a bit like a lame duck.
Should Biden resign noticeably, there are still roughly one and a half months until the Democrats' convention in Chicago. Then Biden is supposed to be officially endorsed as his party's candidate - he has already amassed the necessary delegate votes in the primaries. Only he himself can decide how it goes further. If Biden were to resign soon, there would be enough time for an intraparty fight for the succession of the 81-year-old.
Biden should take a defensive stance behind his vice president Kamala Harris to reduce the chances of a dirty power struggle. The lines would then be clear, and the Democrats could focus on their political opponent Trump. If the lot falls on the 59-year-old Harris, she could also potentially tap into the millions in campaign funds raised in Biden and Harris' names during the campaign. In the case of another candidate, that would not be so simple.
Scenario 2: Biden drops out before or during the convention
If Biden waits for weeks to clarify things, that could be a painful time for him and the party. The Democrats could continue to lose ground in polls, and more big donors could withdraw their support.
What Biden would undoubtedly achieve with such a move, however, is pressure for a quick decision. The party would have to come to an agreement in a few days or even hours. There would be little time for public, effective division of labor. Various election scenarios with intense lobbying from candidates would be possible. Besides Harris as an alternative, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, and the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, are mentioned as options. The convention in Chicago would certainly go down in history.
Scenario 3: Biden drops out after the convention
If Biden changes his mind after the Chicago convention, the decision would fall to a party committee with several hundred members. Party loyalists might take offense if the decision were made solely in such a circle. For positioning the successor in the campaign, there would be little time left.
There are also deadlines in the states for when parties must confirm their candidates to appear on the ballot. If Biden waits until after the convention, some of these deadlines could have already passed. It's unclear whether Harris, who is also on the ballot as vice president, would receive Biden's votes as a potential presidential candidate. Conservative groups have already announced that they will take legal action against this.
Scenario 4: Biden stays in the race.
It's possible that Biden insists on staying in the race and doesn't give in to the pressure. Surveys show Trump leading in particularly contested states that neither the Republicans nor Democrats can claim for certain. This doesn't mean Biden will lose in November. But it's a very realistic option. Trump would be happy if he could continue to work on his well-known opponent.
The difficult situation of the Democrats must be a burden for Biden. The seven-time grandfather claimed multiple times that he is the most qualified person for the job and the only one who can beat Trump. However, it doesn't look that way currently.
Partisan supporters could be turned off by Biden's stubbornness: What some see as a sign of strength, others perceive as dangerous stubbornness. Biden himself often says that the election is about nothing less than democracy in the USA.
- The Democrats are focused on ensuring Biden's candidacy for the presidency once more, aiming to secure his victory against Donald Trump in the upcoming US election campaign.
- The Republicans, on the other hand, are hoping to leverage Biden's age and perceived weaknesses to their advantage during the campaign.
- The future of the Biden presidency has become a topic of interest for the USA and the international community, particularly concerning Biden's participation in the NATO summit in Washington.
- Despite his age, Biden remains an influential figure in the US political landscape, with a rich experience that has contributed significantly to his party's achievements.
- The prediction for the November election is that Donald Trump has strengthened his lead over Biden, with recent polls reflecting this trend.
- If Biden were to withdraw from the presidential race, the Democratic Party would be forced to make a quick decision on a new candidate, with Kamala Harris and governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer being considered potential alternatives.
- The timing of Biden's withdrawal would be crucial, as earlier withdrawals would allow for more time for intraparty fights and later withdrawals could lead to missed campaign funding opportunities.
- The upcoming NATO summit is not only a significant event for the US election campaign but also serves as an opportunity for Biden to demonstrate his leadership and diplomatic skills, potentially strengthening his position.
- The future of the USA and its role in the global arena hinges on the outcome of the #USElection2024, with potential implications for alliances such as NATO and actual governance within the White House.
