Federal Election - Can that work? Habeck's course to Chancellorship
After months of debates, the de-facto decision in the exclusion proceedings was made: Robert Habeck of the Greens will be the Chancellor candidate for the next Bundestag election. Annalena Baerbock has announced her withdrawal. The Greens will nominate a Chancellor candidate for the regular Bundestag election in the fall of 2025 and thus lay claim to the top job in the government, as the German Press Agency learned from Green leadership circles. But why should that matter at all for a party that polls at 11 to 13 percent in the surveys?
Communications Advisor: The race is wider open than it looks
Green parliamentarian Sven-Christian Kindler believes that the Greens could reach a solid 25 percent in the Bundestag election. He pointed out on Deutschlandfunk that the SPD had similar survey results before the 2021 election. At that time, the party was polling at 14 to 15 percent. Currently, the party is between 14 and 16 percent, while the CDU/CSU is at around 30 percent.
However, Johannes Hillje also believes that the race is wider open than it currently appears. "The Greens winning the Chancellery is currently unlikely but not impossible." Hillje was the campaign manager for the European Greens in the European election campaign in 2014. He is now a political and communications advisor and has reportedly worked for all three traffic light parties, for companies, federal ministries, and associations.
Not only Habeck has baggage
There seems to be a confrontation between Friedrich Merz (CDU), Olaf Scholz (SPD), and Habeck. Hillje sees baggage in all three: "Merz has copied the rhetoric of the AfD, Scholz is bland, Habeck is hanging on to the heating law and the nuclear decision."
As for nominating a Chancellor candidate, he would advise the Greens to do so. The surveys are volatile, improvement is possible. "And it would be unwise to ignore the additional attention from the media that a Chancellor candidacy brings, including participation in TV debates."
From opposition party to ruling party
Unlike in the last election campaign in 2021, the Greens this time are not running with a societal mood for more climate protection in their wake. Back then, they came out of the opposition, flirted with the role of underdog and hopefuls. Today, women and men know what Green politics means - and many reject it massively. The European election result of less than 12 percent was devastating. The Greens want to avoid alienating core voters while needing to gain significant support. How to do that is unclear.
"Habeck must openly engage in dialogue with voter groups that the Greens have lost in recent years," Hillje believes. "For that to work, he must also go into painful discussions, such as with people for whom sustainability is important but whose recipes the Greens do not convince."
A challenging topic: Migration
Some Greens handle the socially topical issue of migration gingerly. The desire of left-wing Greens for more openness does not correspond to the mainstream, as the party is aware. "We can't win on this issue," they say. From Hillje's perspective, that's a mistake. "People expect migration to follow rules, but they currently only have the impression that there is too much chaos in Germany and Europe." And: "The notion that the AfD's problem-naming plays a role in the cards is wrong – problem ignorance does that. If you show up authentically, it is also possible to advocate for skilled labor immigration and humane refugee policy."
The ardor with which the Greens criticize compromises and grapple with problems is a problem for the party. Realos describe it as follows: Before there is a result on complex issues like the refugee payment card, the party has lost approval on all sides. Left-wing voters find the compromise too harsh, conservative sympathizers shake their heads at the fence-sitters. Discipline has already increased, according to an observer. Indications of this are: When Habeck, who is not a bore, recently spoke out in favor of the deportation of serious criminals and threats to Syria and Afghanistan, there was an uproar.
About Habeck
One doesn't have to like Habeck, but he's not a bore. "He quenches society's thirst for orientation, rhetorically and intellectually," says a Green about him. Smallness, standstill, caution are against the instinctive politician Habeck's nature; he sees them as obstacles for successful politics. In public appearances, he always speaks freely, unlike Baerbock, who seems to regard the abandonment of the script as a matter of honor, perhaps also of vanity. Often it goes well, even long speeches are often well-structured and entertaining.
What's next
An official application from Habeck for the green top position in the next Bundestag campaign is still missing. "All further questions for the campaigns we will then organize through the committees and report back in time," he told journalists on his summer tour in Paderborn. Those who watch him can hardly harbor the slightest doubt that Habeck wants - the question is only when he officially says it and the party endorses him. Most likely, this will only happen after the state elections in the east in September. With the expected disastrous Green results there, it would be less connected to his person.
Baerbock has spared the party a paralyzing power struggle with her declared candidacy withdrawal in the US broadcaster CNN. She herself justified the step with the crises of the world that demanded her as Foreign Minister. This is plausible, on the other hand: What else could she have said? That "Robert" was a better candidate? That's unlikely. Hillje considers the step wise. "She has opted for a self-determined retreat from a risky power struggle."
Website Hillje Overview Surveys Interview Baerbock at CNN
- The exclusion procedure led to the decision that Robert Habeck, a member of Alliance 90/The Greens, will be the Chancellor candidate for the upcoming Bundestag election in Germany.
- Despite polling at 11 to 13 percent in surveys, the German Greens aim to increase their support to a solid 25 percent in the fall of 2025, following in the footsteps of the SPD before the 2021 election.
- Johannes Hillje, a political and communications advisor, believes that the race for Chancellor in Germany is more open than it appears, with the Greens winning the Chancellery being an unlikely but not impossible scenario.
- Olaf Scholz, from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Friedrich Merz have also been named as potential Chancellor candidates, each with their baggage and shortcomings according to Hillje.
- Hillje advises the Greens to nominate a Chancellor candidate, citing the added attention and media coverage such a role would bring, as well as the potential for improvement in the surveys.
- Gaining the support of core voters while avoiding alienating others is a challenge for the Greens as they move from opposition party to ruling party in Germany.
- Hillje believes that Habeck should engage in dialogue with voter groups that the Greens have lost in recent years, including people who support sustainability but are not convinced by the Greens' strategies.
- The issue of migration is a challenging topic for the Greens, with some members adopting a cautious approach due to the lack of mainstream support for more openness.
- The ardor with which the Greens criticize compromises and tackle problems, as well as their lack of discipline in complex issues, is seen as a weakness by some, with Hillje advocating for a more authentic and rule-following approach.
- Annalena Baerbock, who announced her withdrawal as Chancellor candidate, has spared the German Greens a potentially paralyzing power struggle, opting for a self-determined retreat from a risky power struggle, according to Hillje.
