Can Hungary be thrown out of the EU?
Hungary no longer seems to have any interest in the Western world. Prime Minister Viktor Orban is meeting with Putin and using Ukraine aid for a blackmail maneuver. He can get away with it because NATO and the EU only have limited means to keep Hungary in check.
As the heads of state and government of the EU countries meet in Brussels, it is getting lonely around the Hungarian head of government Viktor Orban. France's head of state Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen & Co. greet each other in a friendly manner and take selfies together. Meanwhile, the Hungarian Prime Minister stands apart from the others, all alone, his hands in his pockets.
The scene from the EU summit at the end of October is symbolic of Hungary's role within the Union. Prime Minister Orban has maneuvered his country into an outsider role, primarily due to his Russia-friendly policies.
His meeting with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin in Beijing on October 17 may have finally tipped the scales. Orban defended the appointment, justifying it by saying that he was pursuing a "peace strategy". He was "proud" of this.
His counterparts in the EU see things differently. For Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the handshake between Orban and Putin was "tasteless". Luxembourg's outgoing head of government Xavier Bettel spoke of a verbal "stink finger".
Orban undermines the EU
Orban has further isolated Hungary within the EU with the meeting, says Andreas Bock, Hungary analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, in the ntv podcast "Wieder was gelernt". "Orban is still seen as a strategic ally of Putin and is currently relying on weakening support for Ukraine in Europe. In many ways, he is undermining the unity of the West and, above all, the EU's ability to act."
Hungary's head of government has concluded further energy agreements with Russia, is attempting to limit or completely block aid to Ukraine and is publicly calling on Brussels to lift the economic sanctions imposed on Moscow.
However, Hungary has been pursuing its own course in the EU not only since Putin's troops invaded Ukraine. Decisions have been regularly blocked and rules broken for some time now. The EU also accuses the country of failing to adhere to the principles of the rule of law and not initiating necessary reforms. As a result, billions in payments that Hungary is actually entitled to from the European budget have been frozen.
However, Hungary obviously does not want to wait any longer for the payment. Orban seems to be using every means at his disposal to force the release of the payments. Most recently, according to reports from EU diplomats, he is said to have made approval for support for Ukraine dependent on whether Brussels pays out the frozen funds or not.
Putin meeting? "Additional moment of shock"
The situation within NATO is similarly tricky. Orban's meeting with Vladimir Putin even prompted an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors. Hungary's NATO allies have "legitimate security concerns", says expert Bock. Orban's meeting with Putin was an "additional moment of shock". "People then reconsidered whether Orban's Hungary is actually a kind of Trojan horse within NATO."
You should get rid of a "Trojan horse" before the enemy climbs out of its hiding place and launches its attack. Voices are getting louder in the EU and NATO to kick Hungary out - but this is not possible on the basis of the existing treaties, says Andreas Bock. The following applies to both the EU and NATO: member states can only leave voluntarily. And Hungary has no interest in this. "As a NATO member, the country benefits from collective security. Hungary can take part in multinational military exercises and Hungary naturally has a certain diplomatic influence as a member of the world's most powerful military alliance."
The situation is similar in relation to the EU, Bock makes clear in the podcast. "Hungary needs EU funds and wants to enjoy the benefits of the single market, so leaving is not an option."
Suspension procedure unlikely
The EU's most powerful lever would be an Article 7 procedure. This can be initiated "if there is a risk of a serious breach of the rule of law", as analyst Bock explains. In extreme cases, such proceedings could lead to Hungary losing certain membership rights, including the right to vote in the European Council.
But even such a measure can only be decided unanimously. The EU's biggest opponents of Hungary would have to convince all other EU states that Hungary must be punished. Not a realistic scenario.
The EU's only feasible lever therefore remains the freezing of funds in order to exert pressure on the Hungarian government. However, it is more than questionable whether this will work. There is already speculation that the EU will release some of the frozen funds to Hungary in return for Hungary no longer blocking aid to Ukraine.
Orban's blackmail maneuver seems to be working. Hungary's head of government knows that his country cannot be thrown out of the EU. The same applies to NATO. Putin's "Trojan horse" is doing a great job.
- Despite the EU's concerns about Hungary's actions, such as meeting with Vladimir Putin and using Ukraine aid as a bargaining chip, Hungary's removal from the EU is not possible due to the treaties, as Prime Minister Viktor Orban benefits from collective security in NATO and the advantages of the EU's single market.
- Andreas Bock, a Hungary analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, stated in the ntv podcast "Wieder was gelernt" that Orban is undermining the EU's unity and acting as a strategic ally of Putin, by weakening support for Ukraine, concluding energy agreements with Russia, and blocking or limiting aid to Ukraine.
- Hungary's meeting with Vladimir Putin caused concern within NATO, prompting an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors, as Orban's actions may make Hungary act as a "Trojan horse" within the alliance, potentially allowing Putin's attacks on Ukraine to go unchecked.
Source: www.ntv.de
