Parliament - British general election: Premier Sunak threatens to go bankrupt
The United Kingdom is electing a new parliament. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party are facing a historic defeat, according to pollsters. The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, is expected to secure a landslide victory. Starmer, 61, would then move into 10 Downing Street as Sunak's successor. The polls are expected to close at 10:00 PM (GMT).
"Vote for Change", Starmer wrote on the platform X. In his last speech before the voting, he emphasized that Britain could not afford another five years of conservative government. Under his leadership, the country would begin a new chapter.
Projections suggest Labour will win over 400 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, making it on course to secure the largest majority since around 1900.
However, Labour is not particularly popular. "This is a Tory loss election, not a Labour win election," said polling expert John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow to Politico. Surveys show Labour receiving less than 40 percent of the votes.
In the British first-past-the-post electoral system, only the candidate with the most votes in a constituency wins the seat. All other votes have no effect.
Another reason is the growing support for smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats, who, according to some surveys, could replace the Conservatives as the strongest opposition party, as well as the right-populist Reform UK party.
The individual constituencies are still being counted. King Charles III. will officially commission the new prime minister for government formation on Friday.
Sunak cast his vote in the morning
Sunak voted at around 7:00 AM (local time, 8:00 AM GMT) after the polling stations opened. Accompanied by his wife Akshata Murty, the 44-year-old appeared at Kirby Sigston Village and waved to the photographers. It is possible that Sunak, as the incumbent prime minister, loses his constituency - Richmond and Northallerton in the North of England - and fails to secure re-entry into parliament.
"Vote Conservative to prevent a Labour supermajority, which would mean higher taxes for a generation," Sunak wrote on X. However, such a "supermajority" does not exist in the British parliamentary system. It is the same whether a party has a majority of 20 or 200 seats in the House of Commons.
Over 46 million people are eligible to vote, each having one vote. It is the first parliamentary election where an official ID is required for voting. Nearly 6.7 million people opted for postal voting.
All 650 seats in the House of Commons are given out by direct mandate. The absolute majority in the House of Commons is 326 seats. The Conservatives had won 365 seats in the last election in 2019, while Labour had 202 seats.
Conservatives hope for damage limitation
Experts emphasized that the Conservatives were now only focusing on damage limitation. Before the polling stations opened, Sunak frequently posted on X that Labour planned to raise taxes on a broad scale. However, Labour leader Starmer denied the allegations.
The former head of the CPS (Crown Prosecution Service) announced a "new era of hope and opportunities." "This is a great nation with limitless potential," Starmer stated on the eve of the election. "The British people deserve a government that matches their aspirations. Today we have the chance, together with Labour, to begin the rebuilding of Great Britain."
Reasons for the decline of the Conservatives are numerous. Above all, numerous scandals and affairs, particularly under the former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have destroyed the trust of the people in the Tory Party, which has been in power for 14 years. In addition, economic stagnation.
Right-wing populists take votes away from Conservatives
The right-wing populist Reform Party of Nigel Farage, who significantly advanced the Brexit cause, could be elected to the House of Commons for the first time. It remains open how many constituencies the former Brexit Party can win. Experts mainly calculate that Farage and Co. could cost the Conservatives many votes on the right-wing spectrum.
The election could also have consequences for the debate on Scottish independence. If the Scottish National Party (SNP) led by First Minister John Swinney, who advocates Scottish independence and a return to the EU, loses fewer seats in the northern British region than Labour, the issue may not play a role for the time being.
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The United Kingdom's Parliamentary election is expected to see a significant shift, with the Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, forecasted to face a substantial defeat. The Labour Party, under Keir Starmer's leadership, is projected to secure a majority, potentially winning over 400 seats in the House of Commons. Starmer has highlighted the necessity of change and the dangers of another five years of conservative rule.
In contrast to these projections, polling expert John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow stated that this is indeed a Tory loss election, not a Labour win election, as Labour only seemed to receive less than 40% of the votes. Despite this, the British first-past-the-post electoral system allows only the candidate with the most votes in a constituency to win the seat, potentially leading to larger parties not benefiting as much as the smaller ones.
If Keir Starmer becomes the new Prime Minister, he would move into 10 Downing Street, replacing Rishi Sunak. However, Sunak's political future is uncertain as he might lose his constituency - Richmond and Northallerton in the North of England - and fail to return to Parliament if another candidate garners more votes.
As the British people head to the polls, they have the chance to rebuild Great Britain, according to Keir Starmer. He emphasized the nation's limitless potential and claimed that the British people deserve a government that matches their aspirations. The election could also shape the debate on Scottish independence, with the Scottish National Party's position potentially affected based on how well they perform.
