BND President: Situation in Afghanistan misjudged
The Bundesnachrichtendienst did not expect such a rapid takeover of Kabul by the Islamic Taliban in 2021. BND-President Kahl has now admitted this error before a parliamentary committee. The intelligence service had based its forecasts on "tipping points" that had directly occurred.
BND President Bruno Kahl has acknowledged an incorrect assessment of the pace at which the Taliban took over Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, in 2021. The BND had long provided reliable situation reports for the Bundeswehr, which had saved lives on multiple occasions, said Kahl during the Afghanistan investigation committee of the German Bundestag in Berlin. And the fact that the Taliban wanted to establish an "Emirat 2.0" was also correctly assessed. "What we didn't correctly anticipate was the script that played out on the last centimeters," Kahl admitted in relation to the Taliban's advance.
The fact that the Taliban's pace "picked up significantly on the last mile" was also not hidden from us," said Kahl. This was evident, described, and integrated into the prognostic parts of the situation reports. However, the crucial question at the time was "What does this development mean for the capital Kabul?" The BND, along with all other present intelligence services, assumed that the Afghan security forces would hold out longer and not surrender immediately, said Kahl. It turned out to be an incorrect assessment that Kabul would not fall before the weekend of August 14/15, 2021. Even other friendly services had no corresponding indications.
Kahl: BND named tipping points
The BND's predictions were based on conditions - so-called tipping points, which were named in writing even before the crisis staff meeting at the Foreign Office on August 13, said Kahl. We had clearly stated that the forecasts would be unreliable if these tipping points occurred. This included the nearly complete isolation of the capital Kabul, the capture of provincial centers in their vicinity, and the withdrawal of US troops and most embassies. These points occurred immediately after the crisis meeting up to August 15. Therefore, the BND's forecast was unreliable, said Kahl.
There were no indications whatsoever before August 15, 2021, that one of the mentioned indicators would become reality, emphasized Kahl. Neither the BND nor any other intelligence service had such an indication. This would have been a sign that the Americans were withdrawing from their embassy on the 14th to the 15th, explained the BND President. There was no such indication - and there should not have been for security reasons, said Kahl. Because in that case, the withdrawal of the USA would have been at risk - "and it would have resulted in a race to the airport that would have been even more chaotic than what we experienced," declared the BND President.
I had a "certain hesitation" during the exchange of messages with friendly services before August 15th, the BND president admitted - apparently also with regard to the USA. Kahl emphasized at the same time that the BND itself had "the greatest interest" in clarifying the matter and contributing to the truth. For this reason, the clarification was supported with all efforts, for example through an intensive presentation of files.
The Afghanistan investigation committee in Berlin received insights from BND-President Kahl about the intelligence service's miscalculation regarding the Taliban's rapid takeover of Kabul in 2021. Kahl acknowledged that the BND's predictions were based on tipping points, which included the capture of provincial centers and the withdrawal of US troops, but these occurred too quickly, making the forecasts unreliable. The BND had not anticipated the specific developments in Afghanistan's capital late in the timeline, which ultimately led to an incorrect assessment.
