Blinken sets off to the Middle East with diminishing expectations for a swift diplomatic resolution, following Sinwar's passing.
American officials, spearheaded by President Joe Biden, hold onto hope that diplomacy can eventually triumph — there's hardly another option they claim — and have endeavored in their dialogues with regional allies to spark enthusiasm behind a new truce initiative resulting in hostage releases, even if it lacks the grandeur of the previously proposed three-phase agenda.
However, following Sinwar's demise at the hands of Israeli troops in southern Gaza, the foundations of the stalemated discussions remain unaltered.
There seems to be no consensus on who will succeed the militant faction, making it challenging to gauge the likelihood of reaching a fresh agreement. Hamas has shown no propensity to revise its stance on hostage and truce negotiations.
"Their internal dynamics will take some time," a regional diplomatic official told CNN. What's apparent, though, is that Hamas isn't budging on truce and hostage negotiations and will only reconsider the three-phase deal that was under discussion for several months prior to Sinwar's departure.
US officials anticipate gaining insights into who might assume Sinwar's position over the upcoming week after Blinken's regional engagements.
While Israel has maintained a tenacious military offensive in northern Gaza since Sinwar's demise, there's been no signs of abating its northern front in Lebanon. The specter of Israel's response to Iran following Tehran's missile attack earlier this month still lingers, potentially escalating regional instability.
Last week, Biden conveyed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the phone that it's time to "move on" from the Gaza conflict. However, there's scant evidence over the past year of Netanyahu heeding Biden's advice, and the Israeli premier has vowed since Sinwar's demise that the conflict is "far from over."
"Israel will continue forward until the end," Netanyahu stated Saturday in terse remarks to Israeli media.
Requested if anything could deter him, Netanyahu responded: "No, nothing will deter us. We continue until victory."
Netanyahu's words seemed to contradict the Biden administration, which promptly commenced advocating for a turning point in the fighting following Sinwar's death.
"We think that there's a possibility of working towards a truce in Lebanon. And it's going to be harder in Gaza, but we agree that there has to be an outcome: what happens the day after," Biden told reporters at the end of last week.
Doubts among Diplomats and Allies
Despite Biden and his entire national security team publicly expressing optimism about concluding the Gaza conflict following Sinwar's demise, US diplomats and regional allies harbor private reservations. Some speculate whether Israel's interpretation of Sinwar's death is that American peace appeals from recent months were misjudged.
They are uncertain about how the Biden administration plans to garner support for a post-war strategy that has been in the works for most of the past year, especially with the US elections nearing and questions arising about who will carry the torch for Sinwar.
Some officials predicted a new strategy emerging that calls for a temporary truce to facilitate hostage releases, shying away from an immediate cessation of hostilities. Such a strategy would also advocate for renewed dialogues toward a more enduring ceasefire.
The White House acknowledged Monday the frailty of a diplomatic resolution in Gaza or Lebanon, conceding that ceasefire negotiations are not "on the verge of resuming."
"I cannot stand here today and assure you that negotiations will resume in Doha or Cairo or anywhere else for that matter," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.
Uncertainty persists about Sinwar's demise's impact, both in facilitating hostage repatriations and easing regional tensions.
Negotiations appeared to be on the brink of collapse only weeks ago, and US officials have played down the possibility of their swift revival — in part due to the uncertainty surrounding who would serve as Hamas' ultimate decision-maker should negotiations rekindle.
The regional diplomatic source described it as a "secure bet" that Sinwar's brother Mohammed could take control of the hostage issue within Gaza. Mohammed Sinwar's name "keeps surfacing," admitted the official, albeit with caution, acknowledging that it's yet to be confirmed. Yahya Sinwar's brother was a close confidant and "possesses a network and the relationships within Gaza to discuss the hostage issue."
Mohammed Sinwar is perceived as being as hardline as his brother and a key architect of Gaza's formidable tunnel system, where hostages are believed to have been held. In September, a senior Israeli official told CNN that Mohammad Sinwar had assumed control as Hamas' military commander after the assassination of its pre-war leader Mohammed Deif in an Israeli airstrike in July.
Mohammed Sinwar's ascension could mean "negotiations are doomed," one US official advised CNN last week after Yahya Sinwar's demise.
To lead the overall organization, top Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya, based in Doha, is gaining backing from pro-Iran, pro-Gaza circles, the regional official said. However, external factions of Hamas could advocate for an alternative candidate.
Yahya Sinwar was named overall leader after the previous chief negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an assassination in Tehran, believed to have been perpetrated by Israel. This meant that Israel was eliminating and hunting the very Hamas figures involved in the faltering truce talks.
Coercion on Hamas to engage again
In the meantime, Hamas is being pressured by Qatar and Egypt to rejoin truce negotiations, but the mediators have been advised "unequivocally" that Hamas has no intention of amending the three-phase plan proclaimed by the Biden administration in late May and subsequently approved by the UN Security Council.
Blinken is projected to interact with leading Israeli figures, such as Netanyahu, on Tuesday, although analysts anticipate that he won't have achieved any substantial advancements in the hostage negotiations by the time he returns to Washington.
However, American officials suspect that Blinken's most significant strides can be made in addressing the critical humanitarian predicament in Gaza, as per a senior US official. Recently, the Biden administration dispatched a missive to the Israeli government, urging them to address Gaza's humanitarian situation within the subsequent 30 days or risk infringing upon US regulations regarding foreign military aid, hinting at potential threats to US military aid.
Historically, Israeli leaders have demonstrated a greater propensity to tackle humanitarian issues following pressure from Biden and face-to-face dialogues, according to the official. They are optimistic about this trend continuing during the current visit.
In spite of the daunting odds, some US officials continue to harbor hopes that they can bring about an end to the Gaza conflict. This optimism stems from Netanyahu's ambition to strike a deal that normalizes relations with Saudi Arabia, as per the official. US officials are resolute that the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, would not endorse such a deal without an end to the conflict and a path to establish a Palestinian state.
With a hint of global political realignments, numerous regional leaders will be in Russia during Blinken's visit this week, attending a summit convened by President Vladimir Putin of the BRICS nations. This event underscores the belief that few are putting all their eggs in the American basket in these uncertain times.
Despite the Biden administration's hopes for diplomacy in resolving the Gaza conflict, private doubts among US diplomats and regional allies persist. Some question whether Israel interprets Sinwar's demise as a misjudgment of American peace appeals.
The uncertainty surrounding who will succeed Sinwar as Hamas' leader complicates efforts to garner support for a post-war strategy. Some officials suggest a temporary truce for hostage releases and renewed dialogues towards a more enduring ceasefire, acknowledging the frailty of a diplomatic resolution.
