Blinken journeys to Egypt instead of Israel, with slim prospects for a Gaza truce and hostage agreement.
For the first time since the October 7 incidents, Blinken has made a trip to the Middle East without visiting Israel. His usual visits typically involve pressuring the Israeli government on crucial war-related issues, such as the hostage and ceasefire deals. However, following these meetings, Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel has often been in open defiance towards the administration.
During Blinken's previous visit in August, there was a sense of optimism among US officials that a resolution could be close. This optimism, however, has significantly decreased.
According to the State Department, Blinken's purpose in Egypt is to discuss ongoing initiatives for a ceasefire in Gaza that would result in the release of all hostages, alleviate Palestinian suffering, and promote regional security. He will also lead the opening of the US-Egypt Strategic Dialogue with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, aiming to strengthen their relationship, promote economic development, and enhance people-to-people ties through education and culture.
Egypt plays a significant role in these efforts, but Blinken's trip is unlikely to result in a major breakthrough. The agreement's success ultimately depends on the political will of two individuals: Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and there is doubt concerning their willingness to reach a deal.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield also emphasized that an agreement hinges on political will.
During Blinken's visit to Egypt, families of the US hostages held by Hamas will be in Washington, DC, continuing their efforts to secure their loved ones' release.
Nevertheless, a clear timeline for the next steps remains elusive. The US proposal to mediate between Israel and Hamas has not been presented to both sides, with the exact timing of this presentation still unclear, despite US officials claiming earlier this month that it was close to completion.
Bill Burns, CIA director, mentioned on September 7 that "we will offer this detailed proposal, I hope in the coming days, and then we'll see."
Hamas is accused of adding new demands to the proposal following the murder of six hostages in their custody in Gaza. US officials have declined to specify these new demands.
Similarly, Netanyahu is accused of imposing new conditions on the negotiations.
After Blinken's previous visit to Israel, Netanyahu reportedly agreed to the "bridging proposal" aimed at bridging the gap with Hamas. However, the next day, Netanyahu reportedly told hostage families that Israel would never leave the Philadelphi corridor—a key aspect of a deal—a statement that a senior administration official dismissed as "maximalist statements" that were "not constructive to getting a ceasefire deal across the finish line."
Less than two weeks later, with six hostages executed by Hamas, Netanyahu stated that no deal was in the works.
Despite Netanyahu's unhelpful public comments, US officials have been cautious about directly criticizing him.
Blinken recently reiterated that "it's incumbent on both parties [Israel and Hamas] to get to yes on the remaining issues[related to a ceasefire and hostage deal]."
However, Sinwar wrote a letter to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah just over a week ago, expressing his commitment to fighting Israel, and Netanyahu's statement that "there is not a deal in the making" was a stark rebuke of the Biden administration's claims that an agreement was nearly completed.
A senior Biden administration official stated earlier this month that the majority of the details of the first phase of the agreement had been resolved. The remaining obstacles, they said, revolve around the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza's populated areas and the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
Blinken said last week, "we're down to a handful of issues – not even a handful of issues – that are hard but fully resolvable, in our judgment."
"Right now, we're working intensely with our Egyptian and Qatari counterparts to work together to bridge any remaining gaps. And in the coming time, very soon, we'll put that before the parties and we'll see what they say," he added.
Blinken's sentiments were echoed by his comments from late July, stating that the talks were "inside the 10-yard line," but also noting that the last 10 yards can often be the hardest.
Recent statements by US officials have been careful to include a dose of apprehension. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stated on Thursday that the US was still working on the bridging proposal. He acknowledged that it remains unclear if "we're going to be able to get there" on a deal.
The ongoing Politics in the Middle East has made Blinken's efforts in Egypt challenging, as the success of the ceasefire initiative in Gaza relies heavily on the political will of leaders like Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Despite Blinken's recent statements emphasizing that only a handful of issues remain resolvable, Netanyahu's public comments suggest a lack of agreement, potentially hindering the Biden administration's claims of an impending deal.
