Bitter winter for Ukraine: breakthrough a long way off

War - Bitter winter for Ukraine: breakthrough a long way off

The Ukrainian attempt to launch a counter-offensive far into the territory occupied by Russia has failed for the time being. A militarily important breakthrough to the Sea of Azov - across the land corridor to the Crimean peninsula conquered by Kremlin troops - seems a long way off.

A good 21 months after the Russian invasion, helplessness and nervousness are spreading in Kiev, while Western aid is dwindling. Ukraine lacks weapons, ammunition, money and, in the foreseeable future, soldiers.

Is the West's declared strategy of enabling Ukraine to defend and recapture its territories, or at least to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength, still working? "We have to be prepared for the long haul," said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently in Berlin.

The course of the war is unpredictable, but "events around a negotiating table are inextricably linked to the situation on the battlefield". Russian President Vladimir Putin must realize that he cannot win on the battlefield.

A stalemate?

However, after the military humiliation of the first few months of his war of aggression, Putin is far removed from a crushing defeat. After last year's successes in Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson, Kiev's commander-in-chief Valery Salushnyi said in the British Economist a year ago: "I need 300 tanks, 600 to 700 infantry fighting vehicles, 500 howitzers. Then it is completely realistic to return to the lines of February 23."

Earlier this month, he told the magazine: "There will most likely not be a deep and beautiful breakthrough". There is now talk of a stalemate in a war of position, similar to the First World War.

The Ukrainian advance got stuck in the dense minefields and in the fire of the Russian artillery. Salushnyi reported the recapture of the village of Robotyne in the south just in time for Ukrainian Independence Day on August 24. Since then, however, there has been hardly any movement there and the town of Tokmak, which is important for the advance, is still a good 20 kilometers away in Russian hands.

Ukrainian soldiers angry

In the meantime, soldiers are venting their anger in the Ukrainian press. German-trained company commander Mykola Melnyk told the internet portal censor.net: "The whole plan of the big counter-offensive was based on simple things: the Muscovites/Russians see the Bradley, Leopard and leave. That's it."

His newly formed 47th Brigade was supposed to take Robotyne on the very first day of operations. Instead, it took the Ukrainian troops a good two and a half months. The front line is still not far from the ruins of the village today.

Melnyk lost his left leg during the first attack when he stepped on a mine. "Every ten meters there was an explosion, explosion, explosion. It turned the sky black. I've never even seen anything like it in movies," says the 38-year-old, describing the day he was wounded. A lawyer in civilian life, he now hopes to be able to walk again with the help of a prosthesis.

The current situation

In eastern Ukraine, Russian troops are putting massive pressure on the Ukrainian army. In the destroyed industrial city of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian soldiers are threatened with encirclement. In the Kharkiv region, the front has come dangerously close to the city of Kupjansk.

A daring Ukrainian advance in the Kherson region across the Dnipro River is tying down Russian troops, but the Ukrainians are under constant Russian bombardment with treacherous Russian glide bombs and artillery shells - with high casualties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi now wants to expand shelters and fortifications along all sections of the front.

Expert: Continue to support Ukraine

German military expert and Ukraine expert Nico Lange cannot see a "stalemate" in the situation and describes the situation as dynamic. "What we will experience also depends on how we continue to support Ukraine," he told dpa.

"Putin also has considerable military problems - we should quickly help Ukraine to put him in his place now and not give him time to recover, reorganize and rebuild. This would only make the problem bigger, longer and more expensive for us too."

According to calculations by Ukrainian journalist Volodymyr Dazenko, the peak of Western arms deliveries was in January/February. Since then, the supply deliveries have leveled off. While Russia is able to deliver an average of 200 new or modernized armoured vehicles to the front every month, the Ukrainian side only receives around 60. In terms of artillery, Kiev receives one twelfth of the Russian quantity. And supported by North Korea and Iran, Russian artillery has more than twice as many shells at its disposal.

High losses

Ukrainian soldiers are complaining about increasing Russian superiority in surveillance and attack drones near the front. Russian jamming signals sometimes prevent the use of Western precision weapons. In Ukrainian air defense, everything depends on Western supplies.

Even the higher number of injured and killed Russian soldiers may not be decisive. Western observers assume that the Russian army has already suffered over 120,000 casualties, while the Ukrainian military has suffered over 70,000. However, the Russian mobilization also appears to be considerably more effective.

The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is now said to be in their mid-40s, in some brigades even in their mid-50s. Despite calls from Salushnyj and others, the government is still reluctant to call up 18 to 27-year-olds.

Tensions in politics

At least Zelenskyi has now promised the military a reform of the conscription laws. The announcement of the reform is seen as a concession to the soldiers, most of whom have been deployed on the front line without being relieved since the start of the Russian war of aggression around 21 months ago.

Dissatisfaction with the course of the war is also leading to tensions in politics. The president refuses to publicly admit the failure of the counter-offensive. He clearly rebuked Salushnyj after his interview and warned the commanders against political ambitions.

Only on Wednesday, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) was also asked in the Bundestag whether he thought the situation in Ukraine was as dangerous as military chief Salushnyj. "Who would I be to question the assessment of the leading general of the Ukrainian armed forces. In fact, we are experiencing a war that has many characteristics of a war of attrition and positional warfare, which at the same time is being waged in a massively hybrid manner, including in other ways, as we know," he says. He does not allow himself to make a prediction.