Biden's security cabinet hasn't planned any immediate action to put forth a revised truce proposal.
Some high-ranking officials in the US suggested lately that a so-called interim proposal was nearing completion for Biden's approval, before it was presented to the other mediators participating in the ceasefire discussions, such as Qatar and Egypt. However, according to these senior officials, Biden's advisors first want to be certain that Hamas would eventually agree to a "yes" on this revised accord – and they doubt that such a desire exists.
A significant hurdle in the negotiations revolves around the controversy surrounding Palestinian prisoners, who would be freed as part of the exchange for the hostages seized by Hamas on October 7. Hamas recently proposed that life-sentence detainees be released in exchange for civilian hostages – a shift from previous negotiation discussions, where it was only proposed that prisoners be released in exchange for Israeli soldiers and soldiers who had been taken captive.
US officials primarily blame Hamas and its leader, Yahya Sinwar, for the impasse, stating that it's unclear whether Sinwar is genuinely interested in reaching an agreement. The recent execution of six hostages in Gaza – including one American of Israeli descent – enraged administration officials who have been deeply involved in the negotiations.
On top of that, doubt has been creeping into Washington about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political readiness to conclude the conflict. Netanyahu has been firm about deploying Israeli troops along the Philadelphi Corridor after a ceasefire goes into effect, which has led some US officials to imply that his insistence on maintaining control over the crucial land strip running along the Egypt-Gaza border border has not been beneficial.
Ending the Israel-Hamas conflict before leaving office is one of Biden's most significant foreign policy objectives. Despite numerous efforts, there's been increasing skepticism within the administration about whether a deal can be reached before the end of the president's term in January.
However, officials maintain their optimism and plan to keep engaging in negotiations, despite the slim chances of a ceasefire at the moment.
Last week, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby declined to forecast when the interim proposal would be ready, but he stressed that the administration was working diligently to make progress.
“The discussions are ongoing,” Kirby said. “What's not clear to us, especially considering the execution of those six hostages, is whether we'll be able to get there. What's not clear to us is whether Hamas will ever be able to attend the table sincerely and sign on to something.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken became the latest high-ranking American official to visit the region, returning to Egypt on Wednesday. However, given the slim possibility that Blinken's trip will result in a significant breakthrough on the ceasefire agreement, Blinken's Middle East journey will mark the first time since Hamas' October 7 attacks that he has not set foot in Israel.
The politics surrounding the release of Palestinian prisoners and the hostages held by Hamas have seen a shift in negotiations, with life-sentence detainees now proposed for release instead of only prisoners in exchange for soldiers. Despite the ongoing discussions, there's doubt within the administration about whether Hamas will attend the negotiations sincerely and sign on to a revised accord.
