Biden waits, waits - and throws Harris into uncertainty
In less than four weeks, the end of US President Biden's career is decided: First, he causes panic within his party. Doubts from voters make it through to the Congress. Eventually, he reluctantly gives up his candidacy. What does his Vice President Kamala Harris do now?
Now, just over three months before the November election: US President Joe Biden will not run again and instead supports his Vice President Kamala Harris. For months, rumors have swirled around the White House, but the Democrats kept quiet, business as usual in Congress. While Republicans' sympathetic media outlets focused on Biden's age, portraying him as weak and unfit. They are now in the driver's seat, basking in their "We told you so." And they attack Harris.
Many things are now possible, from a chaotic primary showdown between various contenders within the Democrats, even from outside the party, in just four weeks. And in a system designed for the opposite. Whether Republican or Democrat: The political giants of the USA move in long, ritualized processes for their presidential candidates. Just like the Republicans in the days leading up to Biden's announcement, who nominated Trump.
In their primary campaign, the Democrats decided to support Biden's desire for a second term. He is already the US President and had already kept Trump in check in 2020. Why shouldn't it work again in November? But they were torn from their familiar routines. Biden had to recognize: It made no sense anymore. How did it come to this? And what does Harris do now?
A political blink
There is this book, a bestseller in the USA, that deals with how the mind works: "Quick Thinking, Slow Thinking," or simply put: intuitive or rational. The rational thinking of the Democrats ended on the evening of June 27th, just a few minutes into the TV duel against Trump. Biden was never in control of the situation, barely managed to get a coherent sentence together, and made Trump look reliable in contrast. No wonder the Democrats panicked intuitively. With a candidate in this state, they couldn't win the election.
Three and a half weeks later, Biden announced his withdrawal; a political blink later. Supporters of the party broke away incessantly, prominent donors spoke out against him. The logic for a second term for Biden, in long deliberation and with much "We've always done it this way," had collapsed due to the shock of the television debate and its consequences. One by one, doubts and decisions against Biden were made public; most TV networks declared his campaign a failure on the same night. Voters had long expressed in polls that Biden was too old for another term. They could confirm it.
What's next, that was the question. The US media realigned; not just the usual suspects with a conservative bias, but also others like the "New York Times" called for Biden to abandon his candidacy. The machine was in motion; day by day, there were reports about who had left him. He acknowledged in a campaign appearance that he was no longer the old Joe. In the first interview, the President had to apologize to a journalist, an odd occurrence. He claimed only God could keep him from his candidacy.
Biden wanted to prove that he could still do it, he admitted that he had to slow down and was no longer a young horse, but he believed he could still make possibly the most important job in western democracies last for four more years. His argument: Wisdom and experience were important and Trump posed too great a risk.
They took him at his word and saw how Biden was becoming more and more of a shadow of himself. The world heard last week at the NATO summit how he momentarily mistook Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for Putin's Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, later calling his vice president Donald Trump instead of Kamala Harris. His team tried to deflect with pre-prepared questions in radio interviews and campaign appearances during the discussions about how long he would last.
Biden's End is in Sight
Biden phoned party leaders and congressmen, whom he had known for decades. He emphasized at every opportunity that he was the candidate, that he would stay in the race, and that no one would take the flag from him. Members of Congress called on Biden to withdraw out of fear that his weakness could cost them in the election. When Nancy Pelosi, the grande dame of the Democrats, made her way through the House of Representatives, the end was in sight.
Trump was shot, Biden's already shaky poll numbers dipped slightly, Republicans celebrated and nominated Trump in Milwaukee. On Wednesday, the White House announced: The President has tested positive for Covid. Instead of campaigning, Biden hid out at his beach house in the state of Delaware. There, he was "foaming at the mouth" in anger, the "New York Times" wrote, because he was being abandoned by his allies. Congressional Democrats gave an anonymous estimate on Thursday: three to five days, then he would announce his withdrawal.
They were right. On Saturday, Biden summoned two close advisors to his house and shared his decision with his family. On Sunday, the President announced his decision via tweet - a minute after informing his campaign team. Shortly thereafter, he declared his support for Harris. In recent weeks, Biden had praised Harris' abilities several times, saying she could easily step in as president.
Gargantuan Challenge
But Biden declared in his letter that he would complete his term. If it stays that way, Harris can now focus on the campaign. The challenge is gargantuan; Biden's delegates, whom he had won in the primaries, are now free in their decision. Harris must convince them, as well as congressmen and senators. Other candidates can do the same. The party has announced that there will be a "transparent and orderly" process. Harris has the advantage of being able to use Biden's campaign war chest directly. If the party were to choose another candidate, a significant portion of the money could likely be transferred to them.
On Sunday, the Vice President had already called Congressmembers. In her home-state California, delegates organized their support for her. The independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy junior stated that the Democrats had decided on Harris because of the money, and claimed that only he could beat Trump. If the party therefore offered him the nomination, he would be open to discussions. However, it is unlikely that this will happen. Party representatives from all states have already signaled their support for Harris. Among others, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the most influential voices of the progressive faction, has rallied behind Harris. Biden is scheduled to give a television address to the nation this week.
The Democrats are taking a risk, as it stands, there are already surveys of a potential Harris vs. Trump duel, in which she does not outperform Biden. But within the party, among campaigners, and among Trump's opponents, one could hope for a landslide effect. Harris would be the first President of the USA, her word carries more weight on the essential issue of abortions, she is also not White; all significant factors to motivate certain voter groups, including their vote. With a "rainbow coalition" of young, Black, and female voters, Biden could have defeated Trump in 2020. Harris must achieve something similar.
In light of Biden's decision not to run again and his support of Harris for the US Presidency Election 2024, the spotlight now shifts to Vice President Kamala Harris. She must navigate a potentially chaotic primary within her party, with various contenders vying for the nomination.
As Biden steps down, Republicans seize the opportunity to attack Harris, turning their focus away from their previous criticism of Biden's age and fitness for the role. In a system that typically favors long, ritualized processes for presidential candidates, the future of the US Presidency Election 2024 is shrouded in uncertainty.
