Biden encounters doubt and possibility with Sinwar's demise, serving as potential leverage in addressing the Gaza conflict.
The impending course of events following several days remains uncertain. Deprived of Sinwar's unilateral command authority, Hamas's hierarchy of leaders, believed to be holding a considerable number of Israeli captives in the Hamas tunnels, may assume control and potentially adopt a new strategy.
The process of negotiating a hostage and ceasefire agreement, as well as identifying potential partners, has become a source of uncertainty for American officials, who spent the hours post-Sinwar's demise examining potential successors.
In August, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the fate of the agreement, referring to the ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, relied on Sinwar's hands. However, US officials refrained from announcing that his death would prompt an immediate agreement.
One US official commented, "We don't know what this means yet," adding that there could be a swift transition towards a ceasefire and hostage agreement, or alternatively, a prolonged period still ahead.
Another senior US official acknowledged, "It would significantly aid the process if Sinwar's death were to occur."
The general atmosphere within the White House and the Biden administration regarded Sinwar's demise as a pivotal turning point.
Sinwar's death is considered by many US officials as the most significant potential turning point in the Israel-Hamas conflict, particularly considering the looming American presidential election. Sinwar's death has the potential to reshape a conflict that has long undermined President Joe Biden's political standing, and in turn, Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign.
Despite Sinwar's death, there is little chance that the broader Middle East conflict will be resolved before Election Day, given Israel's impending retaliation against Iran's ballistic missile attack from the previous month. Negative sentiments towards the conflict have solidified among voters, with few expecting resolution before Election Day. Nevertheless, any development that helps alleviate regional tensions would be welcomed, both within the White House and Harris' campaign headquarters.
As ceasefire talks aimed at securing a hostage deal to halt the conflict remained interminably stalled for months, senior administration officials had persistently hoped for Sinwar's removal. This goal was seen as the key to unlocking concessions in the negotiations that would not be feasible with Sinwar in power.
"It all boils down to Sinwar," a senior administration official had straightforwardly stated as talks stalled in the early stages of the year.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had erected his own roadblocks to a hostage deal, prompting substantial frustration within the White House. However, Netanyahu had openly declared his intention to pursue Sinwar until his demise. From the US perspective, Sinwar represented Israel's most desired adversary to signal their successful withdrawal from the Hamas conflict.
"Sinwar's death would offer a new avenue to President Biden to once more advance the first phase of the ceasefire agreement and intensify pressure on Netanyahu to execute it," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence analyst specializing in the region. "For months, Israel has maintained that Sinwar is the primary obstacle, that he does not seek a deal, and constantly alters prisoner demands in exchange for hostages. However, rumors persist that much of Hamas is drained and would welcome a respite."
"Whether a deal could be structured for a cessation of hostilities will depend on the next leader, but at the very least, it presents an opportunity that has not existed for several months," Panikoff concluded.
The persisting military conflict between Hezbollah and Israel complicates any prospective opportunity to bring the extensive conflict to an end, according to a US official. US intelligence has shared information with Israel to help identify Sinwar's whereabouts, but it remains unclear whether this collaboration contributed to this specific operation.
"The IDF is more taken aback by this than we are," the official added, acknowledging that this was not an operation Israel had been undertaking to specifically target Sinwar.
Increasingly over the previous several months, American assessments found Sinwar to be entrenched, fatalistic about his chances of survival, and committed to prolonging the Israeli-Hamas conflict, which has tarnished its international reputation. This outlook has only strengthened as the Gaza war reached its one-year mark, leaving American officials skeptical that Sinwar would ever agree to a hostage and ceasefire deal.
With Sinwar's demise, the future trajectory is not immediately apparent.
"This is a significant pebble dropped into a lake, and the ripples are substantial," said Aaron David Miller, a seasoned Middle East negotiator who has served various American administrations, elaborating, "Will this prompt the kind of political justification and explanation that Benjamin Netanyahu needs to seriously consider cooperation to attempt to deescalate the war in Gaza? The answers are indeterminable at the moment, but the ripples are evident."
Replacing Sinwar's leadership within Hamas
Among the queries US officials are now investigating is who will assume strategic decision-making duties for Hamas in the wake of Sinwar's leadership vacancy. Sinwar's orders to eliminate hostages if besieged by Israeli forces was unclear whether this decree would be extended under new commanders.
If we're discussing a negotiation scenario, if there's a Hamas negotiator named Sinwar who recognizes negotiations as the sole path for Hamas' survival, you might have an opportunity. However, inertia and the desire to keep searching for hostages could hinder this, warned Miller. The Israeli government's stance on ceasing hostilities and initiating talks isn't likely to shift quickly, he added.
Sinwar, known for his secluded life, has been a barrier to Hamas reaching a ceasefire-hostage exchange agreement, as negotiators from Qatar and Egypt have found it challenging to gain access to him.
Officials from the US suspected that Sinwar had abandoned electronic communication and relied solely on human sources for information exchange. For a considerable period, there was uncertainty over his life or death status.
According to Miller, a former senior State Department official focusing on Middle Eastern affairs, Sinwar has been Hamas' main hindrance in reaching a ceasefire-hostage deal in Gaza. His demise could potentially revive hopes for a peace agreement, provided Netanyahu is willing to make a deal amidst his government's talks about reestablishing Israeli settlements in the territory.
During his conversations with his Israeli counterpart, Biden attempted to persuade an end to the Gaza conflict that didn't preclude efforts to locate and eliminate Sinwar.
At a July news conference, Biden expressed regrets over missed opportunities to convince Israel to halt its actions against Gaza. However, he stressed that there's potential now to conclude the conflict. It's not about abandoning attempts to capture Sinwar and Hamas, he clarified.
Although operations in Gaza decreased as Israel switched its focus to the northern border with Hezbollah in Lebanon, lethal airstrikes continued, causing a surge in civilian fatalities. With the US election approaching, the administration has intensified efforts to urge Israel to improve humanitarian conditions within Gaza, which have deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks.
This week, a severe letter from Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was released, warning Israel of potential military aid cuts if it failed to enhance aid to the enclave.
The course of the conflict in the three weeks leading up to Election Day remains uncertain for both presidential campaigns. While not a high priority issue for many voters, the crisis has complicated Harris's bid to win Michigan, a state with a significant Arab American voting population. She is campaigning in Michigan for three days this week.
(Paraphrased without acknowledging the source)
Following the release of the severe letter from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, urging Israel to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza due to potential military aid cuts, US officials are now focused on identifying who will replace Sinwar as the strategic decision-maker in Hamas. The uncertainty over whether Sinwar's decree to eliminate hostages if besieged by Israeli forces will continue under new commanders is a significant concern in potential ceasefire negotiations. The demise of Sinwar, who had long been a barrier to Hamas reaching a ceasefire-hostage deal, could offer a new opportunity for peace, but Israel's stance on ceasing hostilities and initiating talks may not shift quickly.
