Biden continues to estrange progressives, though he might not have any other option.
However, the president's weak stance on one of Donald Trump's primary election issues makes this a necessary risk for him to take. Those familiar with Biden's strategy have privately commented on how he's in a situation where he must take bold action on immigration due to Republicans in Congress not taking action after killing a bipartisan immigration bill.
If Biden wins the upcoming election, it's likely because he managed to unite the most discontented liberal Democrats behind him while appealing to moderates and dissenting Republicans who reject Trump's extremism. Many of these Republicans view the border crisis as an urgent matter of national security, and Biden needs to demonstrate that he takes the presidential responsibility of safeguarding the country seriously.
On the other hand, the president's stance has been shaky with his party's most liberal members for months, and his standing with progressives has deteriorated significantly due to his support for Israel's attack on Gaza following Hamas' October 7 terrorist attacks. This divide will be evident when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to Congress in the coming weeks - an invitation that originates from Republicans hoping to heighten Biden's political difficulties.
The president's dilemma is so significant due to indications that the coalition that brought him to power in 2016 has weakened. His support in polls compared to his 2016 performance has been particularly dubious among liberal voters and people of color. A close election that hinges on a few thousand votes in a select group of states means that every Democrat who doesn't support Biden effectively gives their vote to his opponent.
The election could hinge on another vulnerability for Biden - rising prices and interest rates - or it may be determined by his warnings that Trump is unfit for office and a threat to democracy. However, polls indicate that more voters are concerned about immigration. Out of all issues tested, Biden received his lowest approval rating on immigration in a CNN poll in February - just 30%.
Vocal opposition from progressives on Biden's immigration measures
The executive action, intended to alleviate pressure on an overwhelmed asylum system, differs fundamentally from the strict policies of Trump. During a speech on Tuesday, Biden emphasized that he's not sending the military to imprison people before mass deportations, as Trump has threatened. This Biden decision includes exemptions for unaccompanied minors and individuals deemed to be victims of a "severe form" of human trafficking. Additionally, these restrictions can be lifted if migrant arrivals fall much below current levels. Despite these distinctions, many progressives consider Biden's use of executive power to curtail asylum applications a breach of liberal values, morally abhorrent, and contradictory to the country's historic mission.
Addressing Democrats' concerns on Tuesday at the White House, Biden stated, "For those who say the steps I've taken are too strict, I say to you... be patient... (the) good will of the American people... is wearing thin right now." He continued, "Doing nothing is not an option. We have to act."
Progressives are not simply unhappy that the president's actions limit asylum rights for migrants fleeing repression, economic hardship, trafficking, gang violence, and other forms of political and social intimidation in South and Central America. They're worried that Biden's position will serve as a new standard for future Democratic immigration initiatives. Moreover, they're disappointed that there's no route to citizenship for millions of migrants already residing in the US - including those brought to the country as minors who remain in legal limbo. California Senator Alex Padilla expressed concern, saying to CNN's Manu Raju, "I guess there's still time for him to do what's right."
Biden argues that he'd rather have Congress address the issue, and Republicans refused to pass the most conservative immigration bill in decades that would have allocated more border patrol officers and allocated resources to the strained asylum system. But even that measure was watered down from the typical measures that Democrats include in comprehensive immigration plans.
Congressional Progressive Caucus co-chair Pramila Jayapal shared a common criticism among liberals that Biden can't win votes by mimicking the Republican Party's shift to the right. "We are making the same mistake again that Democrats continually make when we try to out-Republican the Republicans," Washington state Democrat Jayapal said.
Texas Rep. Greg Casar stated that Republicans "try to mask their failings for this country by blaming immigrants and trying to portray them as the source of all our problems." Additionally, Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna Pressley commented, "With all due respect Mr. President, we should not be emulating policies from the previous administration."
Any president who fails to satisfy their own supporters is in a dangerous position when seeking re-election. Biden demonstrates throughout his presidency that he is aware of the leftward shift in his party. He has provided billions of dollars to ease student loan debts - despite being hindered by the courts and criticized by Republicans as illegal. He has attempted to revive US manufacturing with hundreds of millions of dollars in public spending in his bipartisan infrastructure plan. In addition, he has passed the most substantial climate change legislation in American history, even if it did not meet the expectations of progressives initially. Biden has also established connections with noteworthy figures on the progressive left, including independent Senator Bernie Sanders, his adversary during the 2020 Democratic primary.
Biden, however, would never openly inquire this, but implicitly, he's posing a query - where else would the progressives go? Would they vote for a Republican demagogue who used Adolf Hitler's language, warning that immigrants are "poisoning the blood" of the country instead? Will progressive and Arab Americans abstain from voting in the crucial swing state of Michigan, providing an opportunity for a former president who had advocated for a Muslim ban?
This is a precarious proposition for Biden, and some Democrats privately fret that the death of thousands of Palestinians in Israel’s military operation in Gaza could be the game-changing single moral issue that could deject substantial votes in Michigan. Representative Rashida Tlaib, a representative for the pivotal battleground state's 12th Congressional District, garnered attention last month when she cautioned there would be consequences for Biden and other Democrats if they smeared pro-Palestinian protesters on college campuses. "We're not going to forget in November, are we?" questioned Tlaib.
Tlaib’s comments followed the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan where more than 100,000 people voted “uncommitted” in response to Biden's stance on Israel. While not all who voted uncommitted were explicitly indicating they would abandon Biden in November, their actions created a potential hazard. And Trump, naturally, was not on the ballot. Thus, any possible loss of Democratic votes could be a significant issue for Biden in the general election.
Nevertheless, Biden's remarkable resurgence after a disastrous start in the 2020 primary serves as a reminder that the most vociferous progressive voices do not necessarily represent the central mindset of the party. Biden performed well with moderate and African American voters, particularly women, whose viewpoints may be as significant as those of frequently cited progressive leaders in the nation's capital. Furthermore, there are certain situations where being challenged by voters like Tlaib might benefit Biden with the electorate he needs to defeat Trump in November.
"Generally speaking, for her to attack Joe Biden in this manner probably helps him politically," stated Kate Bedingfield, a former Biden White House communications director, on CNN This Morning. "I believe that the majority of voters he's trying to win over, and indeed, the majority of voters in this nation, are supportive of Israel and expect the US to stand by its ally there. And if someone who represents the farthest left of the party is attacking Biden, that probably assists him with the voters he needs."
The Biden campaign is thrilled to capture the interest of Republican voters who selected former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley over Trump months after she ended her presidential primary campaign.
Some Haley advocates lauded Biden's actions on immigration, as CNN's Kit Maher reported. "While many Haley supporters continue to have policy disagreements, this sane action is a significant step towards addressing one of the key priorities of many Haley supporters,” proclaimed the Haley Voters Working Group, a coalition of roughly 25 conservative Haley supporters. The group is insignificant, yet gaining marginal support is essential for successful grassroots campaigning in close elections. A Biden campaign official met with the group via Zoom last month.
Amanda Stewart Sprowls, a Haley backer from Arizona, expressed contentment with Biden's actions on immigration. "It was a sign of good faith," said Sprowls. "They're starting to listen to the center."
The Biden campaign eagerly strives to appeal to these Republican voters who opted for Haley over Trump, even after her presidential bid finished.
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Despite Biden's efforts to address the concerns of progressives on immigration, his executive actions have been met with vocal opposition. Many progressive Democrats believe that Biden's use of executive power to curtail asylum applications is a breach of liberal values and a contradiction to the country's historic mission.
This divide within the Democratic Party could pose a significant challenge for Biden in the upcoming election, as progressives who are unhappy with his immigration policies may choose to stay home or vote for a third-party candidate, potentially affecting the outcome in crucial swing states.
