Based on the ZDF Political Survey, the AfD maintains its lead in Thuringia, while the CDU holds the top spot in Saxony.
Approximately a week before the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the polls are indicating a clear trend: As per ZDF Politbarometer, the AfD is leading in Thuringia, with the CDU taking the lead in Saxony. Among the coalition parties, the SPD is predicted to make it into the state parliaments in both states, while the Greens are at a mere 4% in Thuringia. The FDP is not being mentioned due to low scores.
In Saxony, the CDU is polling at 33% (a drop of 1% from two weeks ago), with the AfD remaining steady at 30%. The Left would fail to secure a spot in the state parliament with a 4% score, while the Greens and BSW are at 6% and 11% respectively (all remaining unchanged). The SPD has seen a 1% increase, now at 7%. As the CDU has no interest in forming a coalition with the AfD, a coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD is mathematically viable.
In Thuringia, the AfD continues to lead at 30%. The CDU sees an increase of 2%, now at 23%, with the BSW dropping 2%, now at 17%. The Left, which was the strongest party five years ago, would now only secure 14% (a drop of 1%). The SPD also experiences a loss, dropping to 6%. A coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD is mathematically possible. The CDU has ruled out any cooperation with the Left. All parties have declined any form of collaboration with the AfD, considered right-wing extremist. However, BSW top candidate Katja Wolf has not ruled out supporting AfD legislative proposals on a case-by-case basis. The survey responses can sometimes be contradictory. For instance, when asked about their preferred minister-president, the incumbent head of government, Bodo Ramelow (Left), outperforms AfD leader Björn Höcke and CDU state leader Mario Voigt.
In the analysis of the ZDF polybarometer, the AfD is still leading in Thuringia with a score of 30%, while in Saxony, the CDU has taken the lead with 33%. Despite the CDU leading in Saxony, a coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD is mathematically viable due to the CDU's unwillingness to form a coalition with the AfD. In Thuringia, a coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD is also mathematically possible, with the CDU ruling out any cooperation with the Left, which is currently at 14%.
