Blow to Iran's 'Axis' - Attacks in Tehran and Beirut: The threat of a major war
For over ten months, the Gaza conflict has raged on with no signs of easing - the killing of a key figure in the Islamic Hamas has added another dramatic chapter to the conflict. Hamas' external chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was reportedly killed in an Israeli attack while visiting the Iranian capital, Tehran. Just hours earlier, Israel's army claimed to have killed the top military commander of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Fuad Shukr. Two of the most influential men in their fight against Israel are now dead.
Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian Hamas are important allies, both supported by Iran. They are part of Tehran's self-proclaimed "Axis of Resistance" in the fight against Israel. Therefore, the danger of a larger regional war has increased following the attacks in Beirut and Tehran. Other militias in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, also part of the "Axis," could potentially join in. A coordinated attack by these groups could even overwhelm Israel's missile defense system.
Iran vows revenge
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, immediately vowed revenge for Haniyeh's death. Tehran considers retaliation for the act "our duty," Khamenei was quoted as saying on his official website. Especially since Haniyeh was "a highly esteemed guest in our house."
Khamenei had met with Haniyeh just the day before, who had traveled for the inauguration of new President Massoud Peschkian. The Hamas chief, against whom the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague had requested an arrest warrant, might have felt well-protected. But at 2:00 AM local time (00:30 CET), Haniyeh was reportedly killed by an "object from the air" in a supposedly "secure house" in northern Tehran. The exact circumstances of his death remain unclear.
Regional war? Attack on Tel Aviv possible
Will Iran become more involved in a regional conflict after this provocation? The deadly attack on its state guest is certainly a heavy insult. However, the incident came at a very inconvenient time for Iran. Peschkian was inaugurated on Tuesday, with representatives from over 80 countries in attendance, and Tehran wanted to present its best side. But things turned out differently.
Moreover, Iran is in the worst economic crisis in its history. Peschkian plans to improve relations with the West for this reason. Starting a military conflict with Israel at this critical juncture would be a disaster for Peschkian, both economically and politically - and could lead to a financial collapse in the country. For Peschkian, these are certainly remarkable first days in office.
For Hezbollah, an attack on Tel Aviv is conceivable. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has repeatedly threatened this in case of an attack like the one now on Beirut. At the same time, Hezbollah has not yet confirmed the death of its commander Fuad Shukr, just as Israel has not yet commented on the killing of Haniyeh. Perhaps both sides want to give the opponent some room to maneuver.
What is Israel's goal?
Israel has repeatedly accused Iran of only using its proxies in the region in its fight against the Jewish state and paying hardly any price itself. Critics in Israel, however, have repeatedly accused the government under Benjamin Netanyahu of only reacting to attacks by the "Axis of Resistance" and taking little initiative itself.
The attacks in Beirut and Tehran are seen as Israel's attempt to go on the offensive and shift the war into enemy territory. Israel also appears to be trying to restore its deterrent capability, which was severely damaged by the devastating surprise attack by Hamas on the Israeli border region on October 7 last year.
Hopes for a swift Gaza ceasefire fade
The deadly strikes in Beirut and Tehran demonstrate Israel's extensive intelligence and military capabilities. They can be interpreted as a message to Iran and its allies that no one is invulnerable. After October 7, Israel had announced that it would eliminate the entire Hamas leadership. If the death of Hamas leader Mohammed Deif is confirmed, Yahya al-Sinwar would be the last surviving senior Hamas leader who violently seized sole power in the Gaza Strip in 2007. It is suspected that he has been hiding in the tunnel network under the coastal strip since the start of the war.
Hamas chief Haniyeh was an important contact person in the indirect negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza war and the release of more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. A commentator for the newspaper "Haaretz" wrote that Haniyeh's death would negatively impact the talks, which were already at a standstill after Netanyahu hardened his positions.
Regional war could drag the USA into the fray just before the fateful election
A regional war could force Israel's main ally, the USA, to become more involved in an armed conflict with an uncertain outcome just before the US election. Israel may be hoping for a significant weakening of its enemies in the entire region with the help of its strong ally in such a scenario. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed that the USA had nothing to do with the attack on Haniyeh and was not informed beforehand.
Just before the incidents in Beirut and Tehran, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin answered a journalist's question about whether Israel could count on American help in a broad war with Hezbollah by saying that in the event of an attack, they would stand by their partner. "If Israel is attacked, yes, we will help Israel defend itself," Austin said. However, they are seeking a diplomatic solution.
For months, the USA has been using air strikes in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria to prevent new attacks on its bases without being fully drawn into a new war. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden seems half out of office, with his successors warming up in the election campaign.
Because there is no clear leadership, the Middle East is trapped in a dangerous limbo, wrote the magazine "Foreign Affairs" in March about the situation in the region. "No one is in charge." The camps are escalating against each other more and more.
The United States of America, as a key ally of Israel, could potentially be drawn into a regional war if tensions escalate further between Israel and its adversaries, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, supported by Iran. The situation in the Middle East is currently in a state of limbo, with no clear leadership, making it vulnerable to further escalations.
