South Africa Stands at the Brink: Transformation or Anarchy?

The People's Party is looking for allies. - At the End of Hope: South Africa confronts transformation - or mayhem

Historically is a term used in journalism to indicate something significant or groundbreaking has taken place. However, in reality, it's often used when events are important but the scope is unclear. The recent election result in South Africa can be considered historic in this sense.

The African National Congress (ANC) has lost its absolute majority in the South African elections for the first time since the country's first democratic elections in 1994. This makes it difficult for the ANC to reflect on its 30 years of uninterrupted rule as it now faces the unfamiliar task of making compromises. If the ANC can't find coalition partners, there's a possibility of political stalemate or chaos.

The ANC's Election Disaster in South Africa

The election disaster is the outcome of years where a small elite treated state coffers as their own personal bank accounts. The result: South Africa has one of the widest gaps between rich and poor in the world. The top 0.01% of the population, just 3,500 people, control 15% of the total assets. Shantytowns continue to grow, and around a third of the 60 million South Africans are unemployed, with unemployment among those under 30 reaching 60%. Crime rates are high, and South Africa's murder rate is in the top 10 in the world. The streets are in poor condition, and the power grid is unreliable. This huge inequality and instability was bound to cause a political upheaval at some point. What was unexpected was the extent of it.

"Our people have spoken," said President Cyril Ramaphosa, who told General Secretary Fikile Mbalula that the ANC had listened after the ANC received only 40% of the votes on Sunday - 17% less than in the previous election. The self-proclaimed people's party must now give up 71 parliamentary seats.

Time is running out to recover from the shock: According to the constitution, the new government, including the president, needs to be in place within two weeks at most. A coalition with minor parties is mathematically impossible - the ANC needs at least one of its three biggest rivals. But even if it learns to be humble quickly and reaches out to the long-laughed-at competition, who should extend their hand?

Can the ANC Partner with the Democratic Alliance?

What enabled the ANC to rule unopposed for so long was the lack of alternatives. Four out of five South Africans are black. The unspoken rule: If someone is going to plunder the country, let it be a white person. Is the time for reconciliation finally here? Just for practical reasons?

Together, the ANC and Democratic Alliance (DA) would exceed 60%. These two powerful forces could agree on economic policy, which would reassure foreign investors. The DA might be open to a partnership with the ANC – and maybe only to keep the Left out. However, they would clash on foreign policy. The DA follows a strictly pro-Western path, while the ANC has found good friends in the East and the Far East. Has the violence in Ukraine and the Middle East turned people off? Maybe. But it doesn't have to be love. The DA could support the ANC in a minority government in exchange for concessions.

A deal with the DA could be the only option for a functioning government with Ramaphosa at the helm.

If not right-wing, then maybe left-wing? Ramaphosa-critical ANC members might look in the opposite direction. The left-radical EFF, with 9.5%, is not suitable for a junior partnership. Julius Malema, the man with the red beret, is a friend of clear, sometimes even racist words. The 43-year-old party leader is a descendant of the ANC, but has turned sharply left.

If the ANC wants the support of its EFF, that would mean: Expropriation of white farmers within six months, creation of a state bank, cancellation of all student debts, free water and electricity for the needy, and above all: a partner who is "neither a marionette nor a representative of the imperialist agenda of the West."

If neither right-wing nor left-wing adoption is an option – what about making peace with the former leader?

Jacob Zuma - South Africa's Donald Trump on a Revenge Campaign

The ANC's dominance was also due to the lack of alternatives. Over 80% of the South African population is black. The unwritten rule: If someone is going to plunder the country, let it be a white person. Has the time come for peace? For purely practical reasons?

Together, the ANC and ANC-critical members could control a majority. However, it would be difficult to agree on economic policy as Ramaphosa is seen as pro-Western, while some EFF members are pro-China. If the ANC wants the support of its EFF, that would mean: Expropriation of white farmers within six months, founding of a state bank, cancellation of all student debts, free water and electricity for the needy, and a partner who is "neither a marionette nor a representative of the imperialist agenda of the West."

If not right-wing nor left-wing, then perhaps the former head of the family?

Potential Political Partnerships

A partnership between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance could be the only option for a functioning government with Ramaphosa as the leader. But if that doesn't seem right, maybe the ANC should consider reconciliation with its former leader, Jacob Zuma. This would mean adopting policies such as expropriation of white farmers, a state bank, canceling student debts, providing free utilities to the needy, and working with a partner who is seen as anti-Western. This could be a risky move, but it might be the only way to prevent political stalemate or chaos in South Africa.

In every country, there's a notorious figure with similarities to Donald Trump. In South Africa, it's Jacob Zuma. His return to politics despite being convicted of alleged corruption and stealing millions is quite remarkable. He almost secured an absolute majority in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal but couldn't vote due to his criminal status. Suspicions of vote manipulation arose during the counting process.

Zuma's MK party is as unwavering in their ideals as their leader: uncompensated land seizures, solar instead of wind power, and even a plan to eliminate the constitution. The potential cost of this 15% could be detrimental, especially towards Ramaphosa, Zuma's former deputy. When Zuma took over MK's leadership in December 2023, it was said that his sole aim was to harm the ANC out of pure revenge, primarily because he blames his fellow party members for his legal issues. Engaging with Zuma would only serve as political blackmail and a possible return to corruption that South Africa desperately needs to avoid.

The circumstances are ripe for a designation as "historical." South Africa has drastically changed since Nelson Mandela vowed to reconcile the nation 30 years ago, both in positive and negative aspects. The dictatorship of the majority, which has only benefited a new elite while bankrupting the country, is on the verge of implosion.

Those with the best interests of the nation at heart yearn for a democratic shift. In a functioning democracy, various parties can co-exist. However, there's uncertainty as to whether the emerging government, secretly forged in Cape Town, will confront corruption or simply become part of the problem.

Compromise and corruption have muddied South Africa's political waters. The consequences would be severe if a leader bearing Zuma's dark history were to become the nation's savior, only to taint the journey to a better future. The fight against this pervading malady must not be delayed - lest the country becomes enslaved to a fraudulent solution.