Approximately one-quarter of Ukrainian displaced individuals express a desire to reside permanently outside of Ukraine.
Approximately a fourth of Ukrainian refugees in Europe have no intentions of returning home long-term. According to a study by the Ifo Institute in Munich, around 25% of these refugees want to establish permanent residency abroad. Nearly 35% express desire to return to Ukraine once it's safe again. As Panu Poutvaara, head of the Ifo Center for Migration Research, stated, "Only 4% are planning to return soon, regardless of the situation in Ukraine."
About 11% of the refugees have already returned home, while another 25% are still unsure.
Ifo migration researcher Yvonne Giesing shared, "Our findings demonstrate that while many Ukrainian refugees still hold the dream of returning to their homeland, the outcome of the war plays a significant role for most." She added, "The longer the conflict persists, the more these refugees can envision a life beyond Ukraine."
The survey, conducted in June, showed that initially, only 10% of Ukrainians intended to live abroad permanently. However, by the end of 2023, this figure had increased by an average of 1.6 percentage points every 100 days, while the actual return rate was 2.7 percentage points. Initially, around 60% showed interest in returning to Ukraine once they felt safe, but this percentage has dropped by an average of 4.7 percentage points every 100 days since then.
Russia initiated an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and there's currently no end in sight to the war. Russia continues to bombard Ukraine daily with drones and missiles, and has been advancing on the eastern front for months.
The study also revealed that some refugees are contemplating a permanent life abroad, making up around 35% of those who remain uncertain about their future. Despite the hopes of many refugees, the prolonged conflict in Ukraine is causing some to reconsider their long-term plans, potentially leading to an increasing number of refugees establishing permanent residency outside of Ukraine.
