Approaching Election Day in a month's time. Here are the key aspects to monitor.
U.S. citizens witnessed the sitting Democratic president withdrawing from the election race, the Republican nominee evading a lethal attack, and the emergence of the first woman of color on a national ticket.
Where are the candidates spending their funds?
Money may not make politics, but it certainly has its weight. The allocation of funds by campaigns as well as the supporting super PACs provides an insight into where they see potential opportunities.
CNN's David Wright provided some insights on where the money flow is heading in these final days before the ad battles intensify. According to him,
Both sides are placing bets on their optimal path to 270 electoral votes. In the first week of October, the Harris campaign is investing the most in the pivotal trio of “Blue Wall” states – they've got over $5 million reserved in Pennsylvania, almost $4 million in Michigan, and around $2.7 million in Wisconsin. This strategy seems sensible – if Harris wins all three of those states, along with Nebraska's electoral vote in the contested second congressional district where the campaign has more than $300,000 worth of ad time this week, she will secure the presidency.
On the other hand, the Trump campaign is focusing on the Sun Belt. In this particular week, Trump's campaign is pouring the most money into commercials in Pennsylvania, $3.8 million – it's evident that Pennsylvania is a significant factor in both sides' strategies. Besides that, the campaign is also allocating $3.4 million for advertising in North Carolina and around $3 million in Georgia, their other prominent targets. If he manages to win these two states coupled with Pennsylvania, he will secure a second term in the White House.
How are the two sides getting voters to the polls?
Policy proposals have been presented, and candidates have attempted to distinguish themselves. It is now time to motivate individuals to cast their votes either in-person or by mail.
Early voting and mail-in voting is currently happening in several regions, although early voting isn't anticipated to reach the levels it did during the 2020 pandemic election. Trump remains skeptical about mail-voting, but Republicans are venturing into this practice in vital states this year in an attempt to match up with Democrats.
Some Republicans are presenting concerns regarding other components of Trump's get-out-the-vote strategy, as CNN's Steve Contorno and Fredreka Schouten report. Instead of visiting households in crucial states, Trump's allies are relying on funding from tech billionaire Elon Musk to execute some non-traditional tactics.
Contorno and Schouten write:
The Trump campaign has built a machine centered on targeting irregular voters, educating supporters to monitor polling centers, and flooding states with voting-related litigations. This strategy is a gamble, according to internal acknowledgements by the Trump campaign, but one that they're convinced is backed by data they've been gathering for almost a decade and testing for the previous six months.
Read the full report
Who is participating in the campaign trail?
Harris has support from the left and the right.
High-profile allies like the popular former Democratic President, Barack Obama, will attend events and contribute to emails and fundraising materials to appeal to the party's base. According to CNN, Obama plans a 27-day blitz for Harris.
Meanwhile, disenchanted anti-Trump Republicans like former Rep. Liz Cheney will campaign for Harris and attempt to sway moderates, independents, and even Republicans who want to move past Trump.
Trump will receive prominent backing from the world’s wealthiest individual, Musk, who is set to appear at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday at the site of where Trump was wounded in the ear by an assassin in July.
However, Trump has fewer allies who can intervene. Former Republican President George W. Bush is not a vocal supporter, and his vice president, Dick Cheney, has announced he will vote for Harris. The party has transformed so considerably that Bush and Cheney would likely not be welcomed at a Trump rally.
Is 'less pessimistic' adequate?
The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates may make it easier for people to acquire a house or a car. Strong employment numbers from September indicate that those who seek employment can find it. A short-lived strike among East Coast port laborers and a dispute between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and two dock terminals did not escalate into the issue it could have been.
However, some things will be more expensive on election day than they were when Trump was in office. Additionally, oil prices may increase in the coming month, impacting voters' wallets.
Despite larger shifts causing Harris to gain an advantage in polls during the summer, these trends have stagnated. However, according to Amy Walter from the Cook Political Report, there are shifts in perceptions regarding the economy, as she discussed on CNN's “Inside Politics.”
Walter reported that the overall race in 2024 remains unchanged, but there are shifts among key voters in vital states. Trump's lead in who voters trust to manage inflation has diminished. His advantage on immigration is lower.
“Voters … are not feeling positive about the economy, but they're feeling less pessimistic about the economy,” Walter said. Voters who feel neutrally about the economy seem to be growing more optimistic about Harris, she said.
Keep an eye on the neutral voter.
Will all North Carolinians and Georgians be able to vote?
North Carolina and Georgia are important electoral states and zones of humanitarian crisis due to Hurricane Helene.
Search and rescue teams are still looking for missing individuals, specifically in rural areas of North Carolina that suffered from flooding and have been isolated from aid. As this humanitarian situation unfolds, there will eventually come a time when it's suitable to consider if those whose homes were destroyed and roads were washed away can express their thoughts.
FURTHER READING: Dive deeper into the relief efforts in North Carolina as the clock ticks to locate Helene survivors.
Will international events impact Harris' campaign?
Democrats have attempted to move past the internal party strife concerning Middle East affairs. Progressives advocating for increased US involvement in Palestine were largely overlooked at the Democratic National Convention in August, and Harris has strived to maintain a balance between supporting Israel while recognizing the humanitarian predicament in Gaza.
However, Israel is now in conflict with Lebanon to the north and is engaging in missile exchanges with Iran. It remains unclear how, or even if, the escalating regional conflict in the Middle East will affect the US election. But within the Democratic Party, a divides simmers that could pose challenges, particularly in the crucial state of Michigan if some voters dissatisfied with US support for Israel decide to abstain from voting.
Will Trump's trial for election interference overshadow the 2022 election?
Trump's federal trial for interfering in the 2020 presidential election will not be concluded, let alone commenced, before Election Day. However, that doesn't mean there won't be developments in this lengthy court case.
The most significant development likely occurred on Thursday when much of special counsel Jack Smith's case was made public by Judge Tanya Chutkan. The court filing provided intriguing new details, but it's also possible that any anger over Trump's 2020 actions has already been factored into voting decisions.
More importantly, many of Smith's described campaign tactics echo the election skepticism being employed by Trump and his supporters in 2024. Learn more from CNN's justice team.
Have you registered to vote?
Pause and consider your own circumstances. Have you registered to vote? Do you know your voting procedure? Several states offer some form of same-day registration, but not all. Visit CNN's voter guide for information related to your state.
What happens after Election Day?
Just one month until Election Day, but that label is a bit misleading. So many Americans are currently voting that Election Day is practically here already. Furthermore, the counting of mail-in ballots and the potential need for recounts in crucial states mean that we may not know the election results shortly after polls close on November 5.
In non-2024 updates, Trump is set to be sentenced for his conviction on falsifying business records in New York regarding 2016 hush money payments on November 26.
Regardless of the 2024 election outcome, Trump is unlikely to accept the results if Harris emerges victorious. His supporters are preparing for a legal battle after Election Day to contest votes and potentially challenge the certification of election results, which must be completed by December 11 for electors to gather in state capitals and formally cast electoral votes on December 17.
Finally, as everyone should recall from 2020, the electoral votes are meant to be counted in Congress, with Vice President Harris presiding this time, on January 6, 2025. The new president officially takes the oath of office on January 20, 2025.
Money may influence politics, and the allocation of funds by campaigns and supporting super PACs reveals their strategic focus. The Democratic nominee, for instance, has invested heavily in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, aiming to secure the presidency if she wins these states and Nebraska's electoral vote. Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is pouring money into commercials in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, hoping to secure a second term by winning these states along with Pennsylvania.
Politics also involves getting out the vote, and this year, early voting and mail-in voting are happening in several regions. While Trump remains skeptical about mail-voting, Republicans are venturing into this practice in vital states. Some Republicans are also relying on funding from tech billionaire Elon Musk to execute non-traditional tactics to motivate voters.
