Anticipated Economic Downturn in Germany's International Trade by Exporters
German merchants anticipate a decrease in business for the year, as well. As Dirk Jandura, President of the BGA (Federal Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade, and Services), stated in Berlin on Wednesday, "Germany's international trade is on the brink of a recession."
There's a forecasted decline of 0.3% in exports and a potential 2.0% drop in imports for 2024. Jandura added, "We're sandwiched between worldwide economic instability on one side and local issues on the other." Germany's economic structure is under strain. "We're worried about the deceleration in the EU market, continual poor performances from China, and of course, the ambiguous outcome of the U.S. election in November," Jandura continued.
The present sentiment is also shown in the most recent BGA survey of businesses, which Jandura shared. "The already dismal mood has worsened since the start of 2022/23." Particularly concerning is the evaluation of future business expectations. "These are lower than the current situation and thus at an all-time low," Jandura explained.
A significant number of companies surveyed by the government link the situation to the coalition's policies. According to the survey, 70% of respondents think the traffic light coalition is off-course. Moreover, half of the companies have no optimism for the recently implemented measures to bolster the economy.
The regional trade within the EU is a cause of concern due to the deceleration, as mentioned by Jandura. The current economic instability worldwide and local issues in Germany are negatively impacting regional trade.
