Ampel is anticipated to face electoral setbacks from 2023, with a single notable exemption.
The outcomes from Saxony and Thuringia mirror the dismal performance of the coalition government: Since the last national election, the SPD, Greens, and FDP have seen a majority of state elections result in losses. This trend currently stands at an alarming 80%.
In contrast, the 2021 national election saw 51.8% of voters casting their ballots for one of the coalition parties. Regrettably, the SPD, Greens, and FDP have seen a significant decrease in their support since then, with polls suggesting they now barely reach 30% overall.
The situation in recent eastern state elections is especially concerning. In Thuringia, the SPD managed to secure only 6.1% of the vote, causing the Greens (3.2%) and FDP (1.1%) to fail in their attempts to enter the Erfurt parliament. The SPD, Greens, and FDP also struggled in Saxony, with the SPD (7.3%) and Greens (5.1%) barely making it into the state parliament, and the FDP falling behind with just 0.9% of the votes. The FDP recorded a 3.9 percentage point drop in Thuringia (2019: 5.0%) and a 3.6 percentage point drop in Saxony (2019: 4.5%). The Greens saw a decline of 2.0 percentage points in Thuringia (2019: 5.2%) and 3.5 percentage points in Saxony (2019: 8.6%), while the SPD's losses were the least severe at 2.2 percentage points in Thuringia (2019: 8.3%) and 0.4 percentage points in Saxony (2019: 7.7%).
Saxony and Thuringia have not traditionally been strongholds for the coalition parties, but these losses are part of a disturbing pattern of defeats. Since their majority win in the 2021 national election, new state parliaments have been elected in 10 of the 16 federal states. Notably, the SPD saw a significant improvement in the Saarland election in March 2022, increasing its support by 13.9 percentage points and securing a 43.5% victory. Since then, the Social Democrats, led by Minister President Anke Rehlinger, have been able to govern the smallest federal state in Germany alone. While the Greens (4.9%) and FDP (4.5%) narrowly missed re-entering the state parliament, they at least made some gains. However, two and a half years later, it is evident that the election in Saarland was the sole instance where all coalition parties saw an increase in votes.
FDP's setbacks in subsequent state elections
Six weeks following the Saarland election, the SPD suffered a significant defeat in Schleswig-Holstein, falling to 16% support. The FDP also experienced a substantial decline, dropping from 11.5% to 6.4%. Only the Greens managed to post a positive result, increasing their support by 5.4 percentage points to become the second-strongest force in the state parliament, trailing only the CDU. In the 2022 elections, the Greens also made substantial gains in North Rhine-Westphalia, recording their historically best result (18.2%) with a significant upswing. They made it clear that they had become a double-digit force in Lower Saxony (14.5%).
Such results were a dream for the FDP in 2022, despite their continuing losses. They still managed to secure a place in the North Rhine-Westphalia state parliament (5.9%), but the second state election since their involvement in the federal government was a precursor of things to come for the Free Democrats. In Lower Saxony, the Liberals failed to remain in the state parliament for the first time since the national election (4.7%). For the SPD, the subsequent elections were also disappointing, as they only managed to secure 26.7% of the vote in their former stronghold of NRW, while still managing to maintain a majority in Lower Saxony despite losses.
Poor results for the coalition parties since 2023
Since 2023, the election outcomes for the coalition parties have been consistently poor. In February 2022, the trio suffered a disastrous defeat in the Berlin House of Representatives repeat election, with the SPD handing over the Red City Hall to the CDU. The Greens managed to preserve their result, while the FDP was ousted from parliament.
In the Bremen Citizens' Assembly election in May 2023, the Greens experienced substantial losses, and the FDP managed to barely re-enter the parliament of the Hanseatic city with slight losses. The election was successful for the SPD, who surpassed the CDU to become the strongest force. The 4.9 percentage point increase was the last time one of the coalition parties improved its result in a state election. Since then, there have only been losses and electoral debacles. In October 2023, the trio lost between 2.5 and 5.0 percentage points in Hesse. In Bavaria, the losses were less severe but particularly painful for the FDP, who also lost their state parliament seats there.
With the recent elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the SPD has faced defeats in eight out of ten state elections since the last federal election. In Berlin, they even lost the iconic Red City Hall. However, the party managed to regain its position as the leading force in Saarland and Bremen. On the other hand, the Greens saw a downfall in seven out of ten results. The FDP only managed a minor victory in Saarland, while being ousted from the state parliament in Lower Saxony, Berlin, Bavaria, and Thuringia. In summary, the SPD, Greens, and FDP have faced setbacks in 24 out of 30 instances, accounting for an 80% failure rate.
Conversely, the significant opposition parties in the Bundestag have been experiencing growth in the federal states. Although suffering a 12.2% loss in Saarland, the Union only suffered one major defeat in Lower Saxony with a 7.6% loss. With the exception of Saarland, the CDU or CSU in Bavaria saw improvements or minimal losses in their state election results. The AfD's performance, however, can be compared to a roller coaster, with a 5.4% loss in Berlin and a 9.4% gain in Thuringia, along with failure to be admitted in Bremen.
A closer look at the government's recent history also reveals that state-level defeats are not uncommon for the federal government's leading parties. Throughout their joint term of government between 2017 and 2021, the Union suffered losses in 10 out of 13 state elections, while the SPD lost in 11 out of 13 elections. In total, the Union and SPD faced defeats in 80% of the state-level elections during this timeframe.
During the 2013 to 2017 legislative period, the CDU endured fewer defeats with only 7 losses in 13 state elections, whereas the SPD suffered losses in 10 instances. Overall, there were losses in 65% of the state elections during this period.
The silver lining for the current ruling coalition is that, as long as it doesn't collapse beforehand, the remaining state elections to be held are only in Brandenburg on September 22 and in Hamburg on March 2, before the next federal election in September 2025.
In light of these trends, it's no surprise that the 'Elections to the Landtag of Saxony' also resulted in challenges for the SPD, Greens, and FDP. Despite the coalition parties seeing a significant gain in Saarland in 2022, they have consistently faced losses in subsequent state elections, including a 2.3 percentage point drop for the SPD in Saxony.
The poor results in Saxony continue a concerning pattern for the coalition parties, as they have now failed to secure a majority in eight out of ten state elections since the last federal election, with a disappointing performance in the 'Elections to the Landtag of Thuringia' as well.
