All of a sudden, the CDU finds itself in need of the BSW.
This coming Sunday, individuals in Saxony and Thuringia will cast their votes for new state legislatures. What was once a routine democratic process could potentially result in a victory for the AfD this time around. The last remnant of centrist opposition against this is the CDU. However, they might require unconventional aid.
If you encounter Michael Kretschmer recently, he appears primarily: weary. For weeks, months, even years, the Minister-President has been striving to persuade the people of Saxony of his "Saxon Approach," as he refers to it. Countless meetings and discussions with local councilors, firefighters, craftsmen, and workers - this has been ongoing since he assumed office in 2017. Explain, explain, explain - that's his strategy. Be accessible. Avoid coming across as aloof.
He has adhered to this approach in handling the refugee situation and the COVID-19 crisis. He has patiently listened to criticism, even at his own front door. Until Putin invaded Ukraine. Since then, he has transformed into something of an eastern voice. Nationwide, he is the only prominent CDU politician advocating for halting weapon supply to Ukraine and resuming Russian gas imports.
But that's exactly what many individuals in the region are saying, and what few other prominent politicians are asserting - except for the AfD and the BSW. Behind every seemingly peculiar statement, there are ten pleas for democracy and the rule of law in Zwickau, Görlitz, or Chemnitz. That's what it's all about this Sunday in Saxony. Will people vote for centrist parties or for the AfD, which is deemed "firmly right-wing extremist" even in Saxony? Many in the CDU forgive Kretschmer his public disagreement with the party line for this reason. They call it "freedom of movement" in the federal CDU. And hasn't he, as a state politician, anyway, have little influence on foreign policy?
In the latest poll conducted by RTL and ntv, Kretschmer's CDU continues to lead. 33 percent of respondents would vote for the party that has been in power since 1990. 31 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for the AfD. Unlike the right-wing populists, Kretschmer has coalition possibilities. According to the same poll, the SPD and the Greens have decent chances of re-entering the state parliament - a situation that was once uncertain. This could result in a repeat of the Kenya coalition, i.e., black-red-green.
However, Kretschmer doesn't miss an opportunity to emphasize that he doesn't want to govern with the Greens again. In an interview with ntv.de, he called for a "strategic" vote. Those who genuinely prefer the SPD and the Greens should vote for the CDU this time. Either way, it's clear: Those who wish to avoid the Greens need an alternative. The alternative that claims itself as such is off-limits for the CDU. Kretschmer is just as resolute in this regard as he is with the Greens or the Left. Interestingly, not all CDU voters between Bautzen and Plauen share this view.
The actual alternative could be the coalition led by Sahra Wagenknecht. Ironically, the BSW, a splinter group from the Left Party, is led by the former communist Wagenknecht. She's mixing things up: economically left, socially conservative-authoritarian. Specifically, that means higher wages, but also law and order and a firm limit on immigration. Unsurprisingly, Wagenknecht remains as anti-American as ever. Kretschmer isn't ruling anything out, but he's keeping his cards close to his chest. "I don't know this crowd," he told ntv.de.
Different dynamics in Thuringia
Just next door in Thuringia, Mario Voigt aims to reach the position that Kretschmer currently holds. The CDU state chairman aims to succeed Bodo Ramelow as Minister President. The Left Party politician has been in office for ten years. For the past five, he's led a minority government with the SPD and Greens - an unpleasant interim following FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich's brief tenure. Even Ramelow himself does not desire a reprise of that coalition, as he stated in the debate with ntv and Antenne Thuringia. SPD candidate Georg Maier, the interior minister for seven years, also told ntv.de that the state requires a majority government. Maier would gladly switch from a Red-Red-Green coalition to the CDU. It might seem opportunistic, but it's not. The SPD is equally compatible with the CDU and the Left Party.
In Thuringia, the AfD remains the strongest force at 30 percent, but unlike in Saxony, it's not unchallenged. Its figurehead is Björn Höcke, the most prominent and feared AfD politician. His state branch is also deemed "firmly right-wing extremist." He's an effective orator who can fill marketplaces and stir up crowds. But only 16 percent of Thuringians want him as Minister President, according to a Forsa poll for ntv. In contrast, incumbent Bodo Ramelow would be supported by 44 percent.
The Left Party isn't looking forward to much benefit from the current situation. Currently at 14%, they're unlikely to be involved in the next government as no one wants to form a coalition with the far-right AfD. This leaves the other parties to form a majority, making the CDU unavoidable due to its 22% strength. However, the CDU rarely coalitions with the AfD and Left across Germany, leaving SPD, Greens, and BSW as potential partners. The Greens might not clear the 5% hurdle, so Mario Voigt would need support from BSW. Their candidate, Katja Wolf, is practical and understands local issues, making her an asset.
As for the AfD, it's not just about governing.
Nonetheless, this can't be said about Wagenknecht herself. She has put forward strict conditions for collaboration with the CDU. She stated three weeks ago that the BSW would only join a state government if US missiles are not stationed in Germany. This is a non-starter for the CDU. International policy matters are usually sidestepped at the state level, as these decisions are made elsewhere. Voigt told ntv.de: "As long as Sahra Wagenknecht is setting demands for Saarland from Thuringia, we have no base for talks with the BSW. I'd be open to discussing Thuringian issues and solutions with Mrs. Wolf."
Therefore, it's improbable to see an AfD Minister President in either Saxony or Thuringia. However, the far-right can still exert influence. If they secure a third of the seats, they'd have a blocking minority for decisions requiring a two-thirds majority. These situations are rare, but when they occur, they concern crucial matters - changes to the state constitution, appointments of the state auditor, and state constitutional judges - here, the AfD could veto unacceptable candidates. They could become the needed nuisance to further dent democracy and its institutions. And if governments are formed around them, they could once again position themselves as the only alternative to the other parties. Successes are still within reach for the AfD, even without a shot at government.
The BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, is an alternative for some CDU voters in Saxony. Despite her strict conditions for collaboration with the CDU, Wagenknecht's economically left and socially conservative-authoritarian stance is attracting support.
In the ongoing negotiations for a potential coalition government in Thuringia, the CDU's Mario Voigt has ruled out collaborating with the BSW as long as Sahra Wagenknecht sets conditions from Thuringia for Saarland's politics.
