All dates for the election in Thuringia
Political Course-Settings in Thuringia: At the beginning of September, the question of who will govern the federal state with its approximately 2.1 million inhabitants for the next five years will be decided in the middle of Germany. Will the AfD with top candidate Björn Höcke become the strongest force?
Decision Day in the Free State of Thuringia: On September 1, around 1.66 million citizens are called upon to redetermine the power and majority relations in the Erfurt state parliament. The elections could fundamentally change the political landscape in Thuringia.
In the polls of recent months, the AfD has been clearly ahead in Thuringia. New strongest force in Thuringia could be AfD top candidate Björn Höcke with his state association classified as "securely right-wing extremist". The Thuringian CDU is currently seen by pollsters in second place ahead of the "Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht" (ASW).
Hint: The infographics show the results of the most recent poll up to election day and are updated regularly.
The parties currently in power are facing significant losses. The Thuringian Left, which has been providing the incumbent Minister-President of the red-red-green government coalition with Bodo Ramelow, is only reaching 14 to 18 percent of the votes in the polls after the ASW split. This corresponds to almost half of the result of the previous state election in 2019.
It could also be difficult for the Thuringian SPD. The Social Democrats have been involved in government responsibility in Thuringia alongside the Left and Greens since 2014. In recent polls, the SPD has been between seven and nine percent. In the 2019 state election, it achieved 8.2 percent of the second votes. SPD top candidate Georg Maier wants to contribute, in his own words, to "Thuringia getting a democratic majority government".
The Greens, who are also involved in the government in Thuringia, must fear not making it back into the state parliament. In the 2019 election, the Greens only just managed to clear the five-percent hurdle with 5.2 percent of the votes. In the polls, the Greens are between four and five percent. The Greens are running in the Thuringia election campaign with the top duo Madeleine Henfling and Bernhard Stengele.
The FDP must hope for a miracle in Thuringia. The pollsters only give the FDP under its state chairman Thomas Kemmerich between two and four percent for the election on September 1. This means that the Liberals are likely to fail at the crucial threshold this time. In 2019, the Thuringian FDP only just managed to enter the state parliament. The vote then was 5.01 percent.
This means that a complex government formation is looming in Thuringia. Among other things, it is still unclear whether five, six, or even seven parties will be represented in the future state parliament. The camp of previous non-voters could have a great influence - if they decide to cast their vote on election day.
The voter turnout was 64.9 percent in 2019. This means that more than a third of eligible voters (35.1 percent) did not participate in the redistribution of political power in the Thuringian state parliament at the time.
Even in the event of an AfD victory, it is unlikely that there will be a right-wing government with Höcke as Minister-President in Thuringia. The other parties have already explicitly ruled out alliances with the AfD in advance. This means that the right-wing populists are currently without a coalition partner and without a sufficient majority.
Whether incumbent favorite Ramelow can remain in office as head of government is still unclear. As in 2019, theoretically, a minority government could come about, but the Left is no longer in first place in Thuringia's voter preference, but behind the CDU.
If the Christian Democrats actually secure more votes, it could be difficult for Ramelow. CDU top candidate Mario Voigt is already openly claiming the position of Minister President. The 47-year-old CDU faction and state leader, who has ample experience, would likely also need coalition partners.
Voigt studied politics and public law and has been in the Thuringian state parliament since 2009. He is younger than Ramelow and Höcke, and unlike them, he is a native Thuringian. For a potential cooperation with the BSW, which could become the new third strongest force in the state parliament, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has already given the green light.
Individual voter groups could be decisive in the election decision: With a share of 51.3 percent, more than half of the approximately 1.66 million eligible voters in Thuringia are female. Moreover, according to data from the state election supervisor, slightly more than a quarter of all potential voters are 70 years or older.
The share of young and new voters appears much lower compared to voters in retirement age. In the state election on September 1, around 79,000 Thuringians can exercise their voting rights for the first time due to age. Together with the age group of 23 to 29-year-olds, the camp of under-30s in Thuringia accounts for a total of just under 10.5 percent.
Note: This map shows results of the previous local elections in 2024 in Thuringia.
Eligible to vote in Thuringia are all persons who "are at least 18 years old on election day, are registered with their main residence or usual place of residence in Thuringia, and have not been excluded from the right to vote by a court ruling," according to the state election supervisor. "The final number of eligible voters will be determined by counting the voter lists on election Sunday."
The upcoming ballot is the eighth state election since the establishment of the Free State. Elections are held regularly every five years in Thuringia. The state parliament in the state capital Erfurt consists of at least 88 seats. Half of these will be allocated as direct mandates from the 44 Thuringian electoral districts, with the other half being distributed among the party lists according to the majority ratios.
Surplus and equalization mandates can increase the total number of members. As in the federal election, voters in Thuringia can cast two votes: one for the candidate in the electoral district and one for the party's state list.
"With the constituency vote on the left side of the ballot paper," the state election supervisor explains, "you can determine a member of parliament who should directly enter the state parliament." The winner in the electoral district is the one who can secure the most votes locally (relative majority).
For the allocation of the remaining 44 seats to be filled via the state list, the information on the right side of the ballot paper is decisive: "With this vote, voters decide for a specific party (state list)", explains the state election supervisor. However, only those parties that receive at least five percent of the total valid state votes cast are taken into account in this distribution. This means: Strong local candidates can also make it into the state parliament without a place on a party's state list.
Voting in Thuringia is also possible by mail. A corresponding application must be submitted to the responsible municipality at the place of residence "at the latest by 6:00 PM on the Friday before election Sunday", as the state election supervisor emphasizes. "In case of sudden illness, this can still be done up to the day of the election by 3:00 PM."
The completed ballot must arrive in the sealed return envelope at the printed address by 6:00 PM on election day at the latest. "The responsibility for ensuring that the mail-in ballot is received in time lies with the voters personally", is the regulation.
On election day itself, polling stations are scheduled to open at 8:00 AM. Voting is possible until 6:00 PM, as usual. The counting of votes begins immediately thereafter. First projections on the election outcome can be expected shortly after the polling stations close. Based on exit polls, pollsters try to estimate the likely election result.
The first more reliable projections are likely to come in the course of the election night. The state election supervisor is expected to announce a preliminary official election result after the votes have been counted, likely still on Monday night.
The Thuringian CDU, led by Mario Voigt, has indicated a potential coalition with the BSW, which could become the new third strongest force in the state parliament. Although BSW is classified as a securely right-wing extremist party, other parties have ruled out any alliances with the AfD, making it challenging for Höcke to form a government.
The BSW, led by Fredrich Merz, could potentially play a significant role in the complex government formation that is expected after the Thuringia state election on September 1. However, whether BSW can garner enough support to become a decisive factor remains to be seen.
