All dates for the election in Thuringia
Political Course-Settings in Thuringia: At the beginning of September, the question of who will govern the state with its approximately 2.1 million inhabitants for the next five years will be decided in the middle of Germany. Will the AfD with top candidate Björn Höcke become the strongest force?
Decision Day in the Free State of Thuringia: On September 1st, around 1.66 million citizens are called upon to redetermine the power and majority relations in the Erfurt state parliament. The elections could fundamentally change the political landscape in Thuringia.
In the polls of recent months, the AfD has been clearly ahead in Thuringia. New strongest force in Thuringia could be AfD top candidate Björn Höcke with his state association classified as "securely right-wing extremist". The Thuringian CDU is currently seen by pollsters on the second place before the "Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht" (BSW).
Hint: The infographics show the results of the most recent poll up to election day and are continuously updated.
The parties currently in power are facing significant losses. The Thuringian Left, which has been providing the current Minister President of the red-red-green government coalition with Bodo Ramelow, is only reaching 14 to 18 percent of the votes according to polls after the BSW split. This corresponds to almost half of the result of the last state election in 2019.
It could also be difficult for the Thuringian SPD. The Social Democrats have been involved in the government responsibility in Thuringia as a junior partner alongside the Left and the Greens since 2014. In recent polls, the SPD has been between seven and nine percent. In the 2019 state election, it achieved 8.2 percent of the second votes. SPD top candidate Georg Maier wants, in his own words, to contribute to "Thuringia getting a democratic majority government".
The Greens, who are also involved in the government in Thuringia, must fear not making it back into the state parliament. In the 2019 election, the Greens only just managed to clear the five percent hurdle with 5.2 percent of the votes. In the polls, the Greens are between four and five percent. The Greens are running in the Thuringian election campaign with the top duo Madeleine Henfling and Bernhard Stengele.
The FDP must hope for a miracle in Thuringia. The pollsters only give the FDP under its state chairman Thomas Kemmerich between two and four percent for the election on September 1st. This means that the liberals are likely to fail at the crucial threshold this time. In 2019, the Thuringian FDP only just managed to enter the state parliament. The vote at that time was 5.01 percent.
This means that a complex government formation is looming in Thuringia. Among other things, it is still unclear whether five, six, or even seven parties will be represented in the future state parliament. The camp of the previous non-voters could have a great influence - if they decide to cast their vote on election day.
The voter turnout in 2019 was 64.9 percent. This means that more than a third of eligible voters (35.1 percent) did not participate in the redistribution of political power in the Thuringian state parliament at that time.
Even in the event of an AfD victory, it is unlikely that there will be a right-wing state government with Höcke as Minister President in Thuringia. The other parties have already explicitly ruled out alliances with the AfD in advance. This means that the right-wing populists are currently without a coalition partner and without a sufficient majority.
Whether the popular Ramelow can remain in office as head of government is still unclear. As in 2019, a minority government is theoretically possible, but the Left is no longer in first place in Thuringia's voter preference, but behind the CDU.
If the Christian Democrats actually win more votes, it will be difficult for Ramelow. CDU candidate Mario Voigt is already openly claiming the position of Minister President. The 47-year-old, who has been a member of the Thuringian state parliament since 2009, has extensive experience but would likely still need coalition partners.
Voigt studied politics and public law and is younger than Ramelow and Höcke, and unlike them, he is a native Thuringian. According to reports, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has already signaled green light for a potential cooperation with the BSW, which could become the new third-strongest force in the state parliament.
Certain voter groups could be decisive in the election: With a 51.3% share, more than half of Thuringia's approximately 1.66 million eligible voters are female. Additionally, over a quarter of potential voters are 70 years or older.
The proportion of young and new voters appears much lower compared to voters in retirement age. Around 79,000 Thuringians will be eligible to vote for the first time due to age at the September 1 election. Together with the 23-29 age group, the under-30 cohort in Thuringia makes up only about 10.5% of the total.
Hint: This map shows results of the previous municipal elections in 2024 in Thuringia.
In Thuringia, all persons who are at least 18 years old on election day, are registered with their main residence or usual place of residence in Thuringia, and have not been excluded from voting by a court ruling, are eligible to vote, according to the state election commissioner. "The final number of eligible voters will be determined by counting the voter lists on election Sunday."
The upcoming election is the eighth state election since the founding of the Free State. Elections are held regularly every five years in Thuringia. The state parliament in the state capital Erfurt consists of at least 88 seats, with half of them being direct mandates from the 44 Thuringian electoral districts, and the other half being distributed among the parties' state lists according to the majority ratios.
Overhang and equalization mandates can increase the total number of members of parliament. As in the federal election, voters in Thuringia can cast two votes: one for the candidate in the electoral district and one for the state list of a party.
"With the vote on the left side of the ballot paper," the state election commissioner explains, "you can determine a member of parliament who will directly enter the state parliament." The winner in the electoral district is the one who receives the most votes locally (relative majority).
For the allocation of the remaining 44 seats to be filled via the party lists, the information on the right side of the ballot paper is decisive: "With this vote, voters decide for a specific party (party list)", explains the state election supervisor. However, only those parties that receive at least five percent of the total valid state votes are taken into account in this distribution. This means: Strong local candidates can also make it into the state parliament without a place on the party's state list.
Voting in Thuringia is also possible by mail. A corresponding application must be submitted to the responsible municipality at the place of residence "at the latest by Friday before election Sunday at 6:00 PM", as the state election supervisor emphasizes. "In case of sudden illness, this can still be done until the day of the election by 3:00 PM."
The completed ballot must arrive in the sealed return envelope at the address printed on it by the latest on election day by 6:00 PM. "The responsibility for ensuring that the mail-in ballot is received in time lies with the voters personally", is the regulation.
On election day itself, the polling stations are scheduled to open at 8:00 AM. Voting is possible until 6:00 PM as usual. The counting of votes begins immediately afterwards. First forecasts on the election outcome can be expected shortly after the closure of the polling stations. Based on exit polls, pollsters try to estimate the likely election result.
The first more reliable projections are likely to come in the course of the election night. The state election supervisor will announce a preliminary official election result after the counting of votes is completed, likely still on Sunday night.
In the recent polls, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with top candidate Björn Höcke is leading in Thuringia, potentially becoming the new strongest force in the state. However, despite being classified as "securely right-wing extremist," forming a government with the AfD seems unlikely due to other parties' refusal to collaborate with them.
Despite being in power as part of the red-red-green coalition, the Thuringian Left, led by Bodo Ramelow, is predicted to receive only 14 to 18% of the votes in the upcoming election, a significant drop from their results in 2019.
