All data on the French election
Decision Day in France: President Macron Forces Early Parliamentary Elections in France. Who will get the majority in the second round of the French Parliament elections? Cards, Data and Infographics on the election outcome.
One week after the first round of the early parliamentary elections in France, the second round is taking place: In the second largest economy in Europe, an unexpected election outcome is emerging. The last polling stations closed at 20.00 CET, and the vote counting is underway.
According to initial projections, the Left Alliance "New Popular Front" (NFP) is leading in the second round. Contrary to expectations, the right-wing "Rassemblement National" (RN) may only end up in third place in the decisive second round, as reported by TF1 and France 2.
[Note: The infographics for the second round of the 2024 French Parliamentary elections are being updated regularly.]
The situation is still unclear: The French broadcasters base their reports on exit polls. The estimates for the number of parliamentary seats that have been won are initially only given with caution. The NFP could reportedly secure between 180 and 215 seats in the French National Assembly. Le Pen's RN could surprisingly only get 120 to 150 seats. An "absolute majority" for France's right is therefore far from a reality.
In the first round on June 30, Marine Le Pen's right-wing movement "Rassemblement National" (RN) made significant gains in many constituencies, causing concerns about a massive right-wing shift in France. The RN and its allies received a total of 35.8% of the votes and were therefore the strongest force. The RN itself received 29.3% of the votes.
The Left Alliance "New Popular Front" (NFP/UG) came in with 27.99% of the votes in the first round. The "Ensemble" coalition of the center around President Emmanuel Macron received 20.04% of the votes and finished in third place. France's conservatives under "Les Républicains" leader Éric Ciotti (LR) managed to secure 6.6% of the votes.
Seats were definitively allocated in 76 of the 577 constituencies in the first round on June 30, 2024. In these constituencies, the winners had more than 50% of the local votes in the first round. The majority of these early-decided constituencies went to the RN (37 seats) and the Left Alliance UG (32 seats).
The number of MPs that each block and alliance can send to the French National Assembly depends on the outcome of the second round in the 501 still undecided constituencies. This decision will be made in the runoff elections on July 7, 2024. The vote counting is expected to take a long time.
The majority of candidates in the 501 still undecided constituencies are being represented by the RN (386), although the Left Alliance UG qualified 412 candidates for the second round. However, UG withdrew a total of 131 candidacies before the second round for tactical reasons.
Tactical withdrawals aim to prevent fragmentation of voices in the Anti-RN camp by having only one candidate face each RN contender. Macron's "Ensemble" camp made 76 such withdrawals. The RN, on the other hand, withdrew only three candidates. Such agreements between the first and second rounds are common in French elections.
In total, 89 of the 501 still open electoral districts saw candidates withdrawn after the first round, leading to a duel between two candidates in round two in 409 districts. In 89 districts, three candidates faced off against each other, while in two districts, there were even four.
The RN candidate emerged as the winner in the first round in 222 electoral districts. In 37 other districts, a candidate from the Union of Extreme Right was the strongest. The Left Bloc was the strongest force in 124 districts, while "Ensemble" was in 60 districts.
[Note: This France map shows the results from the first round in all electoral districts where the winner is already determined.]
The seat distribution in the preliminary results of the first round remained largely open with only 76 seats definitively assigned. Approximately 49 million French voters were called upon to cast their ballots for the re-election of the French National Assembly.
A shift to the right in France after the first round was not to be overlooked: RN leader Jordan Bardella was already celebrating the results on the evening of the first round.
The second round would be "one of the most decisive in the entire history" of the 1958-founded Fifth Republic, declared the RN party chief in Paris. If the predictions from the polls hold true, the surprising victory of the Greens and the Left in France would be a clear indication of whom the voters trust to make legislation in the Paris National Assembly.
The 28-year-old Bardella, who aspired to become the Premier Minister of all French people if his party secured an absolute majority, declared after the first round that he wanted to be "the Premier Minister of all French people." In case of cohabitation, where the President and the Prime Minister come from different camps, he vowed to be a Prime Minister who respected the "Constitution," but was "unyielding."
The chairman of France's conservative party "Les Républicains" (LR), Éric Ciotti, called on all conservatives to join his controversial alliance with the RN and Marine Le Pen.
"Victory is in sight tonight," Ciotti declared after the strong performance of the RN and LR candidates, who had decided to support the RN.
[Note: This France map shows the results of the first round on June 30, 2024.]
Unsettled with his party, Ciotti had arranged a cooperation with Bardella and the RN, leading to several attempts by leading forces within the party to expel him. The court halted this move initially. The majority of Republican candidates ran independently in the parliamentary election, while Ciotti and some followers switched to the RN camp before the vote.
The far-right party "Reconquête" (R!) with Marion Marechal Le Pen as the lead candidate showed openness for a coalition. However, R! candidates could only secure 0.75% of the votes in the first round according to calculations.
The upheaval in French politics caused by the sudden announcement of new elections had been foreshadowed in the pre-election surveys. State President Emmanuel Macron aimed to react to his party's disappointing result in the European elections. However, after the crushing defeat of his centrist alliance in the European elections, the French right was poised to gain significant influence.
Macron justified his surprising decision on the evening of the European elections, stating, "I cannot, at the end of this day, pretend that nothing has happened."
"I trust in the ability of the French electorate to make the best choice for themselves and for future generations," Macron explained his surprising decision to initiate new elections for the National Assembly.
Macron's "Renaissance" party had suffered a heavy defeat in the European elections on June 9. As part of the centrist alliance "Besoin d'Europe" (BE) - consisting of Renaissance, the "Ensemble" parties, and the Union of Democrats (UDI, "Union des démocrates et indépendants") - they only managed to secure 14.6% of the votes.
France in Blue: European Elections 2024
Note: This France map shows the results of the European elections in 2024.
In the European elections, Macron received less than half the number of votes compared to the right-wing RN, which garnered 31.5% of the votes on June 9. The French socialists followed Macron with 13.8% of the votes. In the overwhelming majority of French regions, the right-wing parties secured the victory, as evidenced by the France map displaying the European election results in the regions, which is deeply blue.
In France and its overseas territories, the French electoral system applies the majority vote, generally favoring larger parties. Overseas voters could already cast their ballots online as early as Tuesday, June 25. The elections had already started earlier in the French overseas territories.
The French electoral law does not provide for postal voting. Voters can, however, grant a proxy and designate a representative. For this, they must first identify themselves at a police station. Unlike Germany, there are no fixed coalitions in France but rather loose electoral alliances. At least 15 deputies are required to form a faction. The factions do not necessarily correspond to the alliances formed before the election.
Warning: This infographic displays results of the previous Parliamentary election in 2022.
Macron's centralist coalition, Renaissance (RE, formerly "La République en Marche"), had entered the 2022 Parliamentary election under the Ensemble-Coalition ENS banner. The label ENS stands for "Ensemble pour la majorité présidentielle" (approximately: Coalition for the Presidential Majority) and included liberal parties of the center, as well as left-wing and right-wing parties.
In the first round of the 2022 Parliamentary election, Macron's centralist alliance was at least even with the leftist NUPES list ("Nouvelle union populaire écologique et sociale", approximately: New ecological and social popular union).
The NUPES coalition was a serious challenger for Macron at the time: The social-ecological group could rely on a broad base, consisting not only of the Socialist Party and the Communist Party of France, but also the French Greens and the left-populist party "La France insoumise" (Unbeaten France).
In the presidential election of 2022, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the NUPES' leading candidate, came close but failed to make it to the runoff. In the second round, Macron ultimately defeated the right-wing populist candidate Marine Le Pen.
Two years later, the political landscape looks different: The French right is experiencing a resurgence following the European election. Le Pen welcomed Macron's announcement of a new election and spoke of a "brave decision" and, with a nod to the new openness of the conservatives, of "responsibility" from Cottis.
The right intends to enter the Parliamentary election under the leadership of EU deputy Jordan Bardella, who had already been the party's leading candidate in the European election. Bardella was quoted by RTL radio as the "candidate for Matignon," referring to the official residence of the French Prime Minister in Paris.
Will there be "Cohabitation" in Paris?
If the RN manages to secure a governing majority, it could mark the first time since 22 years that there would be a "Cohabitation" in France.
The term refers to the situation where the President and the strongest political faction in the Parliament belong to different political camps, and the President has no majority of his own. This has occurred three times, most recently from 1997 to 2002 with the conservative President Jacques Chirac and the socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.
Macron's forced snap election campaign dealt a heavy blow to the government camp. The center alliance, which had lost the absolute majority in the Parliamentary election just two years prior, went back into campaign mode immediately after the election's dissolution. Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, who is also the chief of Macron's party Renaissance, called for the mobilization of all republican forces. Séjourné plans to continue managing his ministerial duties despite the election campaign.
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire saw the upcoming election as having historical significance in light of the success of the right-wing populists in the European election. He described it as the election that would have the "most severe consequences in the history of the Fifth Republic." The outcome of the ballot box would determine "what the French nation will become in the coming years and decades."
The left parties in France formed an alliance for the unexpected new election. On the very day of Macron's announcement, the Left Party, Socialists, Communists, and Greens agreed in principle to form a common movement named "Front Populaire" (People's Front).
This hastily forged alliance decided to field only one joint candidate in each of the 577 constituencies. "We want a program for social and ecological transformation, to build an alternative to Emmanuel Macron and to combat the racist project of the far-right extremists."
577 Constituencies, 577 Seats
The French Parliament consists of two chambers: The Senate and the National Assembly, with the announced elections only affecting the National Assembly. The legislative body comprises 577 seats. Elections are held in corresponding numbers of constituencies using the French majority voting system in two rounds.
Candidates who obtain an absolute majority, i.e., more than 50% of the cast votes, in the first round do not need to participate in the second round, provided they receive over a quarter of the votes in their constituency.
In constituencies where no candidate surpasses this threshold, a week later, the second round takes place: The top two candidates from the first round face off against all constituency candidates who received more than one eighth of the votes.
In general, parties reach agreements before the second round, resulting in typically fewer than three candidates per constituency. The mandate goes to the one with the most votes. The new composition of the French National Assembly is thus set to be determined by the evening of the 7th of July.
- Contrary to predictions, Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance, "Ensemble," withdrew a significant number of candidates before the second round of the parliamentary elections to prevent fragmentation and strengthen their anti-RN campaign.
- Marine Le Pen's right-wing party, "Rassemblement National" (RN), performed exceptionally well in the first round of the French parliamentary elections, securing the majority of votes in many constituencies, sparking concerns about a shift to the right in France.
- The second round of the French parliamentary elections was described by RN party chief Marine Le Pen as one of the most decisive in France's history, as the results could determine who holds the majority in the National Assembly and ultimately influence the political direction of France.
