All data on the French election
Political earthquake in Paris: French President Macron pulls the trigger after the European election and announces unexpected parliamentary elections. What are the power and majority relations in the French National Assembly? Cards, data, and infographics in overview.
The European elections of 2024 have had dramatic consequences in France: State President Emmanuel Macron reacts to the weak performance of his party and the further strengthening of the French Right with a surprising move and sets short-term parliamentary elections.
In two voting rounds on June 30 and July 7, the French are to decide on the power and majority relations in the Paris National Assembly. In the first round, which takes place this coming Sunday, only a few of the 577 seats in the National Assembly are usually awarded. The first round serves only as an introduction. The crucial decisions usually fall in the second round.
First projections (exit polls) will be given on both election days at 8:00 p.m., with it being calculated that at least the rough number of seats obtained will be made public. It should be noted that parties do not have to belong to a coalition uniformly but can assign their candidates to different coalitions (so-called "Nuances") on a constituency level. Therefore, parties can be formally represented in several coalitions. Official data will be given after the counting of votes from the French Interior Ministry.
The suddenly announced elections have thrown political life in France into deep turmoil. Macron is hoping for stronger support from this step, but the French Right could potentially gain more influence in the future. The latest polls show that the Right-wing populists of the "Rassemblement National" (RN, National Rally) are currently far ahead in France. Macron's "Ensemble" alliance would be the third strongest force in the parliamentary election accordingly.
The challenges facing France required clarity, and the French deserved respect, Macron justified his decision on the evening of the European election. "I cannot, at the end of this day, pretend that nothing has happened," he said, looking at the results of the European election and his decision to call for new elections to the National Assembly. "I trust in the ability of the French electorate to make the best choice for themselves and for future generations."
Macron's "Renaissance" party suffered a heavy defeat in the European election on June 9. As part of the "Besoin d'Europe" (BE) coalition - consisting of Renaissance, the "Ensemble" parties, and the Union of Democrats (UDI, "Union des démocrates et indépendants") - it obtained only 14.6% of the votes.
This is barely half the number of votes the Right-wing populists from the RN obtained in the European election in France (31.5%). The French Socialists were in the lead at the beginning of June, with 13.8% of the votes, just behind Macron's camp.
In the overwhelming majority of French regions, the Right secured the victory: The France map with the results of the European election in the regions is deeply blue.
Until June 30th, there is not much time left. Macron's decision, as stated in Article 12 of the French Constitution, propels the parties directly after the European election into a type of blitz campaign, where this time it's not about distant Brussels, but rather about the political alignment of France.
Marine Le Pen, the RN fraction leader who intends to run for presidency again in 2027, looks at the unexpected elections with great confidence. "We are ready to assume government responsibility," she declared.
The far-right party "Reconquête" with Marion Marechal as its leading candidate has already shown openness for a coalition - the same as the head of France's Conservatives, Eric Ciotti.
The new flexibility of the conservative camp creates new realities for Macron: Ciotti's coalition signals challenge a long-standing consensus that collaboration with the RN is taboo - and thus openly against large parts of his party, Les Républicains.
A total of approximately 50 million eligible French and French citizens are called to vote in France and its overseas territories. The majority vote system favors the larger parties. Voting for overseas residents has already begun on Tuesday, June 25th. The elections have also started in the French overseas territories.
The French electoral law does not provide for postal voting. Voters can, however, grant a proxy and designate a trustee for themselves. For this, they must first identify themselves at any police station.
Most polling stations will close at 18:00 on the coming Sunday, while they will remain open until 20:00 in Paris and other major cities. This results in relatively reliable projections by 20:00.
The upcoming elections in France are attracting attention beyond national borders. It is still open how a possible victory of the right-wing populists will affect the political alignment of the second strongest economic power in Europe.
Previous statements from leading RN representatives do not indicate sudden declarations of commitment to the European unification process. The much-invoked Franco-German motor within the EU could temporarily falter.
Looking Back: 2022 Parliamentary Election
In the parliamentary election of 2022, Macron's party Renaissance (RE, formerly "La République en Marche") had competed under the Ensemble-Coalition ENS label. The ENS label stands for "Ensemble pour la majorité présidentielle" (approximately: "Alliance for the Presidential Majority") and included liberal parties of the center, as well as left-wing and right-wing parties.
In the first round of the 2022 election, Macron's centralist alliance was at least tied with the left-wing NUPES list ("Nouvelle union populaire écologique et sociale," approximately: "New ecological and social popular union").
The NUPES alliance was a serious challenger for Macron back then: The social-ecological political group was able to build a broad base, which included not only the Socialist Party and the Communist Party of France, but also the French Greens and the left-populist party "La France insoumise" (Unbeaten France).
During the 2022 presidential election, the then NUPES leading candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon came close but failed to make it to the runoff. In the second round, Macron won against the right-wing populist candidate Marine Le Pen.
Two years later, the situation looks different: The French right is sensing a resurgence after the European election. Le Pen welcomed Macron's re-election announcement and spoke of a "brave decision" and, looking at the new openness of the Conservatives, of "responsibility" from Ciotti.
The Right intends to participate in the parliamentary election under the leadership of EU deputy Jordan Bardella, who had already run as the party's candidate in the EU election. Bardella was quoted by RTL radio as saying, "He is our candidate for Matignon." Hotel Matignon is the official residence of the French Prime Minister in Paris.
Will there be "Cohabitation" in Paris?
It is still open whether the European resurgence of right-wing populists will also take hold in France: If the RN manages to secure a governing majority, it could mark the first time since 22 years that there is a "Cohabitation" in France.
The term refers to the situation where the President and the strongest political faction in Parliament belong to different political camps, and the President has no majority. This has happened three times, most recently from 1997 to 2002 with the conservative President Jacques Chirac and the socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin.
Macron's forced campaign for the snap election also affects the government camp. The Centre alliance, which had lost the absolute majority in the parliamentary election two years ago, switched to campaign mode immediately after the parliamentary dissolution.
Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, who is also the chief of Macron's party Renaissance, called for the mobilization of all Republican forces. He intends to continue exercising his ministerial duties despite the campaign organization.
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire saw the upcoming election in the context of the success of right-wing populists in the EU election. He described it as the election that would have the "most severe consequences in the history of the Fifth Republic." The outcome of the ballot box would determine "what the French nation will be in the coming years and decades."
Green-left "Popular Front" against Macron
The leftist parties in France intend to run as a coalition in the hastily scheduled new election. On the day of Macron's announcement, the Left Party, Socialists, Communists, and Greens agreed in principle on the formation of a common movement called "Front Populaire" (Popular Front).
The hastily forged coalition agreed to field only one joint candidate in each of the 577 constituencies. "We want a program for social and ecological transformation, to build an alternative to Emmanuel Macron and to combat the racist project of the extreme right."
In dry woolen coats, the Left Alliance is still far from being a reality. Although the left parties had already run together in the last parliamentary election two years ago and had formed a joint faction in parliament, the alliance was effectively broken during the dispute over the stance on the Gaza War. While the Left Party and its leading figure Jean-Luc Mélenchon were the strongest and driving forces two years ago, the resurgent Socialists, with their candidate Raphael Glucksmann finishing third in the European election, are now claiming a leading role.
577 Constituencies, 577 Seats
The new alliance is under pressure from the start. Until the election date on June 30, there is not much time left for Green and Left to align on a common platform. The French parliament consists of two chambers: The Senate and the National Assembly, with the upcoming elections only affecting the National Assembly. The legislative body comprises 577 seats. Elections are held in corresponding numbers of constituencies using the French majority voting system in two rounds.
Candidates who obtain an absolute majority, that is, more than 50% of the cast votes, in the first round do not need to participate in the second round, provided they secure a quarter of the votes in their constituency.
In constituencies where no candidate surpasses this threshold, a week later, the second round takes place: The top two finishers from the first round face off against all constituency candidates who received more than one eighth of the votes.
In most cases, parties reach an agreement before the second round, resulting in fewer than three candidates per constituency. The mandate goes to the one who receives the most votes. The reconstitution of the French National Assembly is therefore predicted to take place on the evening of July 7.
- Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right RN party, expressed confidence after the unexpected announcement of parliamentary elections, stating, "We are ready to assume government responsibility."
- The English translation of the ENS label in the 2022 parliamentary election was "Alliance for the Presidential Majority," which included Macron's Renaissance party, Liberal parties of the center, and left-wing and right-wing parties.
- The unexpected elections in France have attracted attention beyond national borders, and the outcome could potentially impact the political alignment of the second strongest economic power in Europe, Germany.
