All data on the election in Great Britain
The voting is underway - Britain is preparing for political upheaval: Surveys indicate that at the forthcoming general elections in the British House of Commons, the Labour Party is expected to secure a landslide victory. Has Rishi Sunak miscalculated? Data and infographics in the overview.
A Big Election Day in the United Kingdom: Since early morning hours, the voting for the Parliamentary election has been underway. Polling stations opened at 7:00 am (local time, 8:00 am CET). Opinion pollsters anticipate a significant victory for the Labour Party. Labour leader Keir Starmer stands a good chance of replacing the incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the British government seat in Downing Street. The Conservatives were trailing the Labour Party by around 20 percentage points in the latest polls.
A total of approximately 46.6 million registered voters in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are called upon to determine the power balance in the British House of Commons on this 4th of July. The trigger for the snap elections was a controversial decision by the incumbent Prime Minister Sunak: The Conservative Party leader sought a sort of liberation stroke following the debacle in the local elections in early May.
Note: Infographics regarding the House of Commons election 2024 will show the latest poll results up until the polling stations close at around 10:00 pm (local time, 11:00 pm CET) and will be updated live as the first projections of the election outcome become available.
Sunak's chances of being re-elected are slim: In the polls, the opposition Labour Party (Lab) was leading the ruling Tories (Conservatives, Con) by a significant margin. The right-wing populist "Reform UK" Party (Ref. UK) could potentially become the third strongest force.
The right-wing populist Reform UK Party of Nigel Farage, who once significantly influenced Brexit, could make its first entry into Parliament. Experts predict that the former Brexit Party will cost the Conservatives many votes on the right-wing spectrum.
Labour leader and opposition leader Keir Starmer - possibly Britain's future Prime Minister - spoke of a "chance for a better change". After 14 years, it's time for a change, he urged the British people during the campaign, "stop the chaos", he called out to them, "start a new chapter and begin the rebuilding."
Prime Minister Sunak, on the other hand, campaigned primarily on extensive tax cuts and a hard immigration policy to win votes. He also presented himself as a guarantee for security and economic strength.
"This is the moment for Britain," Sunak declared at the end of May during a speech before his office in Downing Street in the pouring rain, "to choose its future and to decide whether we want to build on the achievements or whether we risk returning to the beginning without a plan and without certainty."
For the 44-year-old Sunak, this election is his first real test on a national level. He was appointed leader of the Conservatives without a vote in October 2022 and subsequently became Prime Minister. "I am the one who is ready to take bold actions," Sunak asserted. "I have a clear plan and that's why I will provide you and your family with security."
It is uncertain if Sunak's announcements will be enough to steer the ship once more. "The people in Britain are longing for a change," said the leader of the Liberal Democrats (LibDem), Ed Davey. "And this election is our chance to finally bring it about." The polls indicate a strong desire for change.
Britain's incumbent prime minister seemed deserted before the election. Two weeks before the vote, Sunak had to find a new campaign chief. Tony Lee, the Conservative Party's strategy planner, found himself in the crosshairs regarding bets on the election date.
Lee's wife Laura Sanders, who is running for the Conservative Tories, is suspected - possibly with insider knowledge - of betting on a July election. Betting on insider information is illegal in Britain. The case caused quite a stir on the island.
The list of scandals, political blunders, and mistakes of the British government under Sunak is long. The Conservative Tories have been in power in the House of Commons, the British Parliament's official name, since the Labour defeat under Gordon Brown and the victory of David Cameron in May 2010.
Cameron's Conservative Party was able to defend their majority in the regular parliamentary elections of 2010 and 2015. Even in the Brexit chaos following Cameron's contested EU referendum and the extraordinary elections in June 2017 and December 2019, the Conservatives managed to stay afloat.
British politics, however, has not yet found peace: Since the 2016 vote on the United Kingdom's exit from the EU, the British have experienced five Conservative Party leaders: After Cameron came Theresa May and later Boris Johnson, then Liz Truss for a few weeks, and finally Rishi Sunak took over the reins of government in Downing Street No. 10 from Truss in the fall of 2022.
Reasons for the decline of the Conservatives in popular favor are numerous. Above all, observers emphasize that the numerous scandals and affairs, especially under the former prime minister Johnson, have destroyed the people's trust in the Tory Party, which has ruled the United Kingdom for 14 years.
Johnson's successor Liz Truss was too short-lived in office to leave a better impression. And Rishi Sunak seems to have failed so far to steer the ship in favor of the Tories. In the spring local elections, Sunak had to accept significant losses for his party in the constituencies.
At the parliamentary elections on July 4, 2024, all 650 seats in the British Parliament are up for grabs. Elections take place throughout the United Kingdom, that is, in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. One seat is won per constituency. The 650 members of Parliament represent each constituency.
According to the parliamentary constituency commission, 543 seats are allocated to England (previously: 533), Scotland will send 57 seats (instead of the previous 59), 32 seats come from Wales (previously 40), and Northern Ireland continues to contribute 18 "Members of Parliament." The number and boundaries of the constituencies - the so-called Constituencies - are aligned with population figures.
Regularly elected for five years
According to British electoral law, the relative majority decides: Voters, male and female, each have only one vote to cast. Winners in the 650 constituencies are those who receive the most votes locally. The "winner takes it all" rule of the first-past-the-post voting system favors local candidates and larger parties. The local vote shares of losing competitors expire.
Members of the British House of Commons are elected for a regular term of five years. Eligible voters must register beforehand. The deadline for registration is at the upcoming election on June 18. Following this, British citizens, Scots, Welsh, and Northern Irish are free to vote at the polling station on election day or by postal vote beforehand.
Elections in the United Kingdom are traditionally held on a Thursday. Polling stations opened on schedule at 7:00 a.m. (local time, 8:00 a.m. CET) on July 4 and will not close until late evening at 10:00 p.m. (CET: 11:00 p.m.). Immediately following the closure of the polling stations, British media will publish initial projections on the election outcome. It is to be expected that the first results from individual constituencies will only emerge in the course of the night. The counting process is estimated by the BBC to be completed by Friday morning. At the very latest, the preliminary result should indicate whether there will be a power shift in the United Kingdom after 14 years of Conservative rule or not.
- The Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is facing a tough challenge in the British House of Commons election, as surveys suggest a landslide victory for the opposition Labour Party.
- The right-wing populist Reform UK Party, led by Nigel Farage, who played a significant role in Brexit, could potentially make its first entry into Parliament, which could potentially cost the Conservatives votes on the right-wing spectrum.
- If the polls are accurate, Keir Starmer, the Labour Party leader, has a good chance of replacing Rishi Sunak in the British government seat in Downing Street, signifying a potential shift in politics in Great Britain.
- The elections come at a crucial time in British politics, as the country has had five Conservative Party leaders since the Brexit vote in 2016, and the Conservatives have been in power for 14 years, facing criticism for numerous scandals and affairs during this period.
