All data for the election to the Landtag in Saxony
The East has a choice: On September 1, nearly 3.3 million eligible voters will decide who will set the political direction in Saxony in the future. The CDU, which has been providing the state's head of government in Dresden since 1990, could lose its position as the strongest force in the state for the first time since the founding of the Free State.
The outcome of the state election in Saxony is shaping up to be close: In recent months, polls have shown the CDU and AfD running neck and neck at times. The lead of the right-wing populists seemed to be melting away in the summer, but in the latest poll, the AfD is behind the CDU.
The Saxony Christian Democrats were last seen at around 34 percent of the vote, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 30 percent. The "Alliance for Progress and Renewal" (APR) would come in at around 11 percent in a poll by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, making it the new third-strongest force in Saxony. The SPD and Greens each had around six percent in the survey from August 9. The Left is likely to miss out on re-entering the state parliament.
Hint: The data for the 2024 Saxony state election are continuously updated.
Forming a stable majority for a government could prove challenging: Until recently, the incumbent Minister President Michael Kretschmer had to reckon with the Saxony CDU even slipping to second place. In a June poll, the AfD was at around 30 percent, closely followed by the CDU at 29 percent. In this survey by Infratest dimap, the APR had a solid 15 percent approval rating.
The CDU has provided the Saxony Minister President since reunification. If CDU top candidate Kretschmer gets less than 32.2 percent of the vote in the election, he will have to take responsibility for the worst-ever CDU result in a Saxony state election.
So far, Kretschmer has relied on a black-green-red majority. However, it is highly questionable whether this constellation can continue as it is. Kretschmer himself has announced that he wants to govern without the Greens in the future. His room for maneuver depends on how many parties manage to clear the five percent hurdle. In a survey commissioned by the Saxony Zeitung on June 19, the SPD and Greens in Saxony were each seen at 5.0 percent.
Kretschmer is relatively popular among the population. In the direct election question, the CDU politician leads the AfD top candidate Jörg Urban by a wide margin. Only 17 percent of those surveyed by Infratest dimap could imagine the right-wing top candidate as head of government. In this poll, at least, the AfD top candidate performs worse than his party.
Clear majorities are not yet in sight in Saxony. If the Greens, Social Democrats, and Left actually fail to enter the state parliament, there could be only three factions in the Saxony state parliament in the future. Kretschmer would then face highly controversial decisions at the national level. In an "Early Start" on RTL and ntv, he did not rule out a coalition with the APR on request, but he did criticize the alliance. The alliance is mainly campaigning for Wagenknecht in Saxony, although the politician is not running there in the September 1 election. Moreover, hardly anything is known about the program of the Wagenknecht party. "That's also a bit of a mystery box," said Kretschmer.
CDU's Top Candidate Kretschmer Already Hinted That He Wants to Continue Governing - Possibly with the SPD and Without the Greens. A Collaboration with the AfD was Explicitly Ruled Out. Based on Current Polling Data, the CDU and Social Democrats Could Reach a Maximum of 55 out of the Regular 120 Seats. However, a Majority Requires 61.
Even with the Greens and Left in the State Parliament, a Continuation of the Black-Green-Red Coalition Would Not Be Easy: Polls Show the Saxon Greens Could Get 59 to 63 Seats - But Only if They Actually Gain Compared to 2019 by Election Day.
Together with the BSW, Kretschmer and the Social Democrats Could Reach a Clear Majority of 70 Seats in the State Parliament - As of August. With the BSW and Without the Greens, Kretschmer Would Have Significantly More Seats. However, the CDU Politician Would Then Have to Lead the First German "Blackbox" or "Magic Box" Coalition at the State Level.
The Greens' Top Candidate in Saxony, Katja Meier, Clearly Rules Out a Coalition with the BSW. "I Am a Member of Alliance 90/The Greens, a Party That Emerged from the Civil Rights Movement That Went on the Streets in 1989 for Free Elections, for Democracy, for Press Freedom," Meier Said on RTL/ntv's "Early Start". She Could Not Imagine Entering a Coalition with a Party That Not Only Speaks for an Authoritarian Regime but Also "Rules Authoritatively".
Meier, the Current Justice Minister in Saxony, Sees the Three-Party Coalition with the CDU and SPD as a Success. She Criticizes Kretschmer for Speaking Against a Renewed Coalition with the Greens. "Michael Kretschmer's Calls for Caution Are Completely Inappropriate Here, Because, as I Said, It's About Having Stable Majorities and Not Blinking to the Right Towards the AfD, Just as Much as with the Kremlin People from the BSW."
Hint: This Map Shows Results of the Local Elections in Saxony, as of June 2024
The Future Majority Relations in the Saxon State Parliament Will Be Decided on Election Day. In Saxony, the Voter Turnout Will Likely Have a Significant Impact on the Official Result, as a Well-Known Comparative Calculation Shows.
At the Previous State Election in 2019, the Voter Turnout in Saxony Was 66.5 Percent. This Means That Non-Voters - Had They Exercised Their Right to Vote - Would Have Had a Theoretical Vote Share of 33.5 Percent. A Total of 19 Parties and Voter Groups Are Running in Saxony on Election Sunday, September 1st.
In the 2019 Election, the CDU Received 32.1 Percent of the Votes, Its Worst Result in Saxony Since Reunification. The AfD Came in Second with 27.5 Percent, Followed by the Left with 10.4 Percent. The Greens Received 8.6 Percent of the Votes in Saxony in 2019, and the Social Democrats Were in Fifth Place with a Vote Result of 7.7 Percent.
The European Parliament could offer assistance to the Commission in forming a stable government after the Saxony state election, considering the close race between the CDU and AfD. The close outcome of the election could make it challenging for the CDU's Michael Kretschmer to maintain a strong position, given the potential influence of the European Parliament.
