AfD reaches new high, Greens lose slightly
The "traffic light" parties continue to stagnate at a low level, while the CDU/CSU and AfD together have 52% of the vote. In the new RTL/ntv trend barometer, CDU leader Merz also made gains. He only fails to score with women and Green supporters.
If federal elections were held next Sunday, only one in three voters would vote for one of the governing parties. In the new RTL/ntv trend barometer, the traffic light coalition together only scores 33%. In contrast, the CDU/CSU alone is at 30%, followed by the AfD with 22%. This is the party's previous high in the trend barometer, which it had already reached in mid-September and at the end of October. While the AfD gained one percentage point, the Greens dropped one point compared to the previous week. The remaining values are unchanged.
If elections were held next Sunday, the CDU and CSU would account for 30 percent (2021 general election: 24.1 percent) and the AfD 22 percent (10.3 percent). The SPD would receive 14% (25.7%), on a par with the Greens with 14% (14.8%). According to the new trend barometer, the FDP would achieve 5 percent (11.5 percent). The Left Party is at 4%, while the other parties together come in at 11% (6.7%).
In a direct comparison of the possible candidates for chancellor, Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck falls by one point and now stands at 18%. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also scores one point less than in the previous week with 16%. CDU leader Friedrich Merz gained two points to reach 24%.
If Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock were to run for the Greens instead of Habeck, she would still receive 17%. Merz also gains two points in this comparison and climbs to 27%. In this scenario, Scholz remains unchanged at 19%.
Green supporters would rather have Scholz than Merz
In a hypothetical two-party constellation in which Germans only had the choice between Scholz and Merz, Scholz comes in at 36%, while 32% say they would vote for Merz. Neither of them would be chosen by 32%. Women are more likely to vote for Scholz (40%), while men are more likely to vote for Merz (37%).
Among younger people, the difference between Scholz and Merz is even more pronounced than among women: Of those under 30, only 15 percent would opt for Merz, but 45 percent would be more likely to choose Scholz.
The survey shows once again that Scholz is more popular with SPD supporters than Merz with CDU and CSU supporters. 86% of SPD supporters would opt for the incumbent if they had the choice between Scholz and Merz. Among CDU supporters, 66% would opt for Merz.
A large majority of Green supporters (70%) would opt for Scholz, while FDP supporters tend to favor Merz (45%) rather than Scholz (28%). AfD supporters are also significantly more in favor of Merz than Scholz, but the majority (59%) would not choose either of them.
Few have hope in Scholz
However, only a minority of 23% of Germans trust Scholz to regain the trust in the federal government that many citizens have lost. Three quarters (74 percent) do not trust Scholz to do so. Even among the supporters of the three governing parties, a majority do not believe that Scholz will succeed in regaining the trust lost in the federal government.
When asked about the party that is best able to deal with the problems in Germany, 15% continue to name the CDU and CSU. The SPD remains at 7%, as do the Greens, who have lost one point. The AfD has grown from 7% to 8%. Only 2% of respondents continue to attribute political competence to the FDP. As in the previous week, 59% say that no party can deal with the problems in Germany.
50% of respondents named the Middle East conflict as the most important political issue, followed by the war in Ukraine with 30%. 29% named the situation of the German government and 28% the budget crisis. 17% were concerned about price increases and economic development and 11% about asylum and immigration. The climate issue, which is currently being negotiated at the COP in Dubai, only concerns one in ten.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany between November 28 and December 4. Data basis: 2501 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. The data on the candidacy of Scholz and Merz and on trust in the federal government were collected on December 1 and 4. Data basis: 1001 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 3 percentage points.
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In the RTL/ntv trend barometer, the SPD, led by Olaf Scholz, and the Greens, with Robert Habeck, both saw a decrease in support compared to the previous week. Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader, gained support in the same survey but failed to score with women and Green supporters. According to surveys, if federal elections were held next Sunday, the CDU/CSU and AfD would together have 52% of the vote, with the AfD reaching a new high. The FDP, led by Christian Lindner, is projected to receive 5% in these hypothetical elections, according to the trend barometer. The SPD, the Greens, and the CDU/CSU are all struggling to regain the trust of the German public, with only a minority trusting Scholz to regain the lost trust in the federal government.
Source: www.ntv.de
