Advisors of Harris are strategically focusing on Michigan, aiming to mitigate potential setbacks in certain segments of the Democratic voter base.
The problem areas identified are among White working-class voters, young Black men, and certain members of the Arab American community. The plan to make up for their low support includes improving standing with White college-educated suburban voters and young voters, drawing some Republicans and utilizing early voting in Michigan, which along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, is a potential key to victory for the Democratic nominee.
In 2020, President Joe Biden barely won Michigan by just under 3 points after Donald Trump had narrowly claimed it four years earlier. Recent polls from Quinnipiac University suggest Harris' lead has narrowed in Pennsylvania and vanished in Michigan, while Wisconsin remains closely contested.
Michigan Congresswoman Debbie Dingell, a Democrat, recently told MSNBC, "I don’t believe either candidate has won this state yet. I think it’s going to be very close. I think it’s going to come down to who shows up to vote. And I think either candidate can win this race right now."
The Harris campaign has identified three groups in Michigan as strengths: older Black voters, young voters, and White, college-educated voters disenchanted with Trump.
"Where we are with older Black voters, what we’re accomplishing with youth, and the support and engagement among some suburban voters, is something that I think we can surpass, or have significant chances to surpass, what we’ve seen in prior cycles," said a senior campaign official.
The strategy consists of enhancing the number of people casting early votes in Michigan, and as Election Day approaches, focusing more on persuading those who haven't yet voted.
Much of this depends on the campaign’s on-the-ground effort, which includes 52 offices across the state – both in Democratic strongholds and traditionally conservative communities. The campaign has also put staff on college campuses to target younger voters.
"It’s a tremendous challenge to present someone to a segment of voters and build trust, then convert that trust into a vote on Election Day. But that’s the hard work we’re doing," said another senior hash campaign official.
Older voters make up a larger share of those requesting ballots thus far, as compared to this point in 2020. In Michigan, they account for 51%, up from 40%. The racial breakdown of voters requesting ballots in Michigan remains nearly the same as it was in 2020.
This year, Michigan voters will have the option to vote early in person for the first time in a presidential election.
The campaign is also focusing on addressing its weaknesses with targeted outreach efforts.
For instance, this week, Harris will introduce economic proposals appealing to Black voters, and the campaign will dispatch surrogates to engage with people in the community. She will also visit Detroit for a radio town hall hosted by Charlamagne tha God, a well-known figure with a large following across digital platforms, and a vast nationwide audience, much of it Black.
However, another area of concern is the Arab American community. During the primary, Biden's victory in Michigan came with a warning from progressives, young voters, and Arab American Democrats in the form of an "uncommitted" protest vote that garnered over 100,000 votes. They urged change in Biden's position on Israel's conflict with Gaza or risk losing significant support in a closely contested state.
Since then, Harris hasn't significantly deviated from Biden's stance on Israel. But earlier this month, she met with Arab American leaders in Michigan, a state with a large Arab American population.
Emgage Action, an organization aiming to boost the Muslim American vote, endorsed Harris last month while expressing "major disappointment" with the Biden administration's stance on Gaza. However, divisions within the community persist.
"We’re kind of doing our best to hold onto the ground or minimize losses," said the first senior Harris campaign official when asked about potentially losing votes in the Arab American community. "We may not get all the votes we’d have anticipated from previous cycles, but we believe we’ll make up for it when considering the path to victory."
Despite identifying the Arab American community as a potential area of concern due to their protests during the primary, the Harris campaign is focusing on minimizing losses in this group rather than significantly changing their stance on Israel. Meanwhile, politics in Michigan remain close, with the Democratic nominee needing to pay attention to various voter groups, including White working-class voters, young Black men, and certain Members of the Arab American community.
