Actually, they can't agree at all

Time is running out: The traffic light coalition wants to get next year's budget over the finishing line by Christmas. The Greens and SPD are calling for the debt brake to be suspended once again. The FDP is against it. A solution has not yet been presented and there are reasons for this.

Many nuts are cracked on St. Nicholas Day, but unfortunately not the hardest: Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Economics Minister Robert Habeck have still not found a solution to the budget dispute. They have to find 17 billion euros. On Tuesday evening, Lindner presented new facts about this sum. He said that the media always gave the impression that the sum was entirely due to the ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court. But this is not the case at all. 6 billion of this was due to additional expenditure on the citizen's income and 3 billion to the reduction in electricity tax.

All three coalition parties would have to sacrifice something from their favorite projects, it is now often said that this is the solution. But is that even possible? The most important proposals are hardly suitable.

The citizen's income: The FDP is calling for the planned increase to be suspended - even though a few months ago it was still defending it as a constitutional requirement. This is because the Citizen's Income rises in line with inflation, or more precisely: with the inflation forecast. However, the forecast was significantly higher than the actual inflation. In this respect, there is room for correction, Lindner now argues. But for the SPD, all of this is - actually - unacceptable. The citizens' income was a prestige project for the SPD, the final departure from Hartz IV, for many the fall from grace of the Gerhard Schröder era. Labor Minister Hubertus Heil has already rejected the FDP proposal. The increase on January 1 is already law and cannot be reversed in the short term.

Basic child benefit: Another proposal is to reduce or even completely abolish the basic child benefit. This is being demanded by the CDU/CSU, which is not even at the negotiating table. However, there is also great sympathy for this in the FDP. This was evident in the ongoing dispute over it - after the heating law, this was the clear number two battle between the Liberals and the Greens this year. Lindner has already rebuffed Family Minister Lisa Paus here, conceding her only 2.2 billion euros instead of the 12 billion euros originally demanded. For the Greens, going back on this in full or in part must feel like the definition of "taking the butter off the bread". For them, the basic child benefit is important because it also protects them from the accusation that they have lost sight of social problems.

The debt brake: For large sections of the SPD and Greens, the solution is to suspend the debt brake once again next year. In purely technical terms, this would allow the coalition government to solve all its acute problems. However, the FDP cites constitutional concerns. Can the emergency situation be justified again next year with the war in Ukraine? Or the energy crisis? It would be doubly embarrassing if Karlsruhe were to throw a spanner in the works again. For Lindner, however, tactics are likely to be at least as important. The debt brake is his big issue. He wants to stand for sound finances. If he then declares the emergency three years in a row, this narrative could only be sustained with argumentative acrobatics. The same applies to tax increases, which are also a red line for the FDP.

No concessions advisable for prestige projects

If all three make concessions on "their" favorite project, all three have a lot to lose. Because in the end it could say: "The SPD has caved in on the Citizen's Income." Or: "The Greens were unable to push through the basic child protection scheme." Or: "The FDP has gone soft on the debt brake." Such stories can ruin entire election campaigns. Scholz, Habeck and Lindner know that too. Quite apart from the fact that they are probably convinced that their projects make sense.

And other proposals are also falling flat: withdraw a pension increase? Have fun at the next election. Not doubling aid to Ukraine after all? Putin is looking forward to it. Cancel the subsidies already promised for the chip factories in Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt? That would be the end of Germany's good reputation as an investment location.

However, the traffic light leaders have no choice but to move forward. One way out could be the climate-damaging subsidies, which the Federal Environment Agency estimates at 65 billion euros. A closer look at the corresponding report shows that the calculations are very generous - and not just with regard to the diesel privilege or the non-taxation of kerosene. Social housing is also considered to be harmful to the climate. In addition, the latest list is from 2018 and no longer up to date - it still includes the child building allowance, which has since expired. Nevertheless, several billion euros are still lying dormant here. And cutting subsidies is fundamentally compatible with the FDP's beliefs.

Cut development aid?

Lindner is also calling for development aid to be cut back a little. Federal and state aid alone amounts to around 28 billion euros a year. If you look at what this is spent on, it all seems reasonable. But a cut could be justified in order to plug the budget holes at home. For the SPD and Greens, however, this would be a toad.

Representatives of the coalition parties now freely admit that the external image of the alliance is poor. Too much dispute, too little unity. But, they then emphasize, the results could be seen. Now would be the time to prove exactly that. Lindner said on Bayerischer Rundfunk radio that the government would submit proposals to the Bundestag "very soon". He tried to give the impression that a budget adoption in January would not be a problem. However, a delay over the Christmas holidays would be embarrassing.

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The traffic light coalition is struggling to agree on next year's budget, with the Greens and SPD pushing for the debt brake suspension, while the FDP opposes it. This dispute over the budget has been ongoing for some time, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, and Economics Minister Robert Habeck still not able to find a solution.

The FDP is calling for the planned increase in the citizen's income to be suspended, despite defending it as a constitutional requirement a few months ago. However, the SPD is opposed to this idea, as the citizen's income is a prestige project for their party.

Another proposal is to reduce or abolish basic child benefit, which is being demanded by the CDU/CSU and has support within the FDP. However, this proposal is controversial within the coalition, as the basic child benefit is important for social protection for the Greens.

The debt brake is a major issue for the FDP, with Finance Minister Christian Lindner wanting to stand for sound finances. However, the SPD and Greens see suspending the debt brake as a solution to the coalition's budget problems.

The traffic light leaders are under pressure to find a solution to the budget dispute, as a delay over the Christmas holidays would be embarrassing. One possibility for raising revenue is to cut subsidies, such as those for climate-damaging activities, which the Federal Environment Agency estimates at 65 billion euros.

Lindner is also calling for development aid to be reduced to help plug budget holes at home. However, this proposal is controversial within the coalition, as development aid is important for the SPD and Greens.

Source: www.ntv.de