A superstar like Oprah would win against Trump
Joe Biden argues that Kamala Harris is fighting for the presidency, but there are other capable people in the Democratic ranks. Would they have better chances if an actual primary process was allowed? US expert Simon Wendt explains where the pitfalls lie and where the chances are.
ntv.de: Within the Democratic Party, there are some voices that say: Kamala Harris might not be the best solution, but there's no one else and it's too late anyway. Was there more music in it if the party had only dared to allow a mini-campaign to continue?
Simon Wendt: Before Joe Biden announced his renunciation of his candidacy yesterday, there was a series of Democrats who advocated for a short, compact nomination process by organizing a kind of mini-primaries, or mini-primaries, in which the best minds of the Democrats could present themselves. The goal of this proposal was also to take away Trump's free advertising in the media. On television and in social media, there was only reporting on Trump. An open process in the nomination process could shift the focus to the Democrats. However, the pendulum is now swinging towards Kamala Harris in reality.
She could simply take over the 90 million US dollars that are available for Biden's campaign. Another candidate couldn't do that. Isn't it harder content-wise to march to the front and take over, or?
Kamala Harris was already part of Joe Biden's campaign. The campaign could quickly shift to Harris. However, this would create a kind of dynasty, in which the staff is passed on to the successor, but many other voices would not be heard. Harris giving up her candidacy freely like that, that's not how primaries are meant to be. And that presents obvious attack surfaces for the Republicans. Even leading Democrats like Nancy Pelosi are advocating for an open, competitive process. Because the result and thus the candidate or candidate would then be legitimate. Ideally, the Democrats would need a counterpart to Trump, a prominent figure, a superstar. Oprah would be super. Oprah would win.
Oprah Winfrey, the TV moderator? Would she be a serious option?
She has been in the conversation again and again in the last ten years, half-seriously, but still. The Democrats need someone like her.
Michelle Obama is prominent - and also in the conversation.
In the African-American community in the USA, the effect would certainly be high if she ran. But that usually doesn't suffice. And many Americans look at Michelle Obama with full hatred. Due to her connection with former President Barack Obama, due to her skin color and origin. Racism and white arrogance are extremely strong in the USA. Sexism is just as strong.
How much of a problem would both factors be for Kamala Harris' candidacy?
I believe that racism and sexism would play a major role in the campaign. Let us remember the attack on Donald Trump and the question of whether the Secret Service made mistakes and was responsible for the attack. Many Republicans immediately referred to the fact that a woman currently leads the Secret Service. They meant: A woman at the helm, that must be the reason why the attack was possible in the first place.
Is there anything similar for Kamala Harris?
She is already being insulted as the first diversity candidate of the Democrats. The Republicans argue: The Democrats cannot find a competent person to be their candidate for the White House because they are so focused on this "diversity track," meaning they insist on nominating a woman and, in particular, an African-American woman. Trump's camp uses the allegation that the Democrats are in the "diversity trap." This is certainly dangerous for Harris' campaign. But it's unclear how effective this strategy will be. Above all, the question is, how many people will actually go to the polls? This was also the decisive question in 2020 and 2016: How do you mobilize voters, both women and men, to physically go to the polls?
How much is Trump currently benefiting from this?
In terms of voter mobilization, Trump is significantly stronger after the attack. His supporters now believe that "he is the chosen one," meaning a person chosen and protected by God. For him, people must definitely go to the polls to save the country. In addition, we cannot forget that it's all about the results in the Swing States. For example, in Wisconsin. Biden won there in 2016 with a margin of only 20,000 votes. It's about states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Arizona, and in some states, 10,000 or even only 5000 votes could decide the election. How do you reach these people there?
Perhaps with a Democratic governor, preferably from one of these states, who would enter the race for the White House? He or she could win the trust of the people in other Swing States more easily than Kamala Harris from the Washington political bubble.
That could potentially be an advantage. And all the names that have been circulating so far are capable, experienced politicians who also perform well on television. Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro - they all would do a good job in the White House. But what the Republicans could do against them in the campaign is crucial. Governor Gavin Newsom comes from California, a state that is perceived as extremely left-wing by many. California is seen as the stronghold of diversity, environmental protection, and provides an attack surface for Trump's campaign.
Then maybe Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan is better?
She is also perceived as a very left-wing politician in the American public. As a white woman, she does not speak to potential black voters as effectively. A good compromise candidate could be Josh Shapiro, the Governor of Pennsylvania. He comes from a state that the Democrats must win at all costs, won 2022 against his Republican opponent with a landslide, and has good poll numbers in Pennsylvania. The problem with someone like Josh Shapiro as a candidate is the factor of time. To make Shapiro known to the American public and clear that he is the better president, time and effort are necessary. Imagine: When a US politician has presidential ambitions, they write an autobiography two or three years beforehand and then gradually try to get involved in the race.
**He wrote a very successful book in 2016 called "Hillbilly Elegy". Due to this, he is already well-known and a kind of hero for the Republicans, "our Obama", as a Republican commentator once called him. Someone as prominent as Vance is not something the Democrats have right now, and they won't be able to build it up quickly. I mentioned before that one of the governors has much less money available for the campaign than Harris. It would be difficult to establish Shapiro with limited financial resources in a short time.
Can they really make Trump a competitor?
The Democrats need a Trump competitor. And they need to get the campaign back on track, which was originally planned: a vote about Donald Trump. It suddenly became a vote about Joe Biden's age. The question is: Can the Democrats turn it back around?
Can they only pin it on the person Trump?
That's also about the political decisions he's made. For example, on the topic of abortion. The right to abortion no longer exists in the US, each state makes its own laws regarding it. In many Republican-governed states, abortion is almost completely banned. The abortion pill is even being considered for abolition in some states.
Can this topic be scored in the campaign?
It can be, because a majority of Americans still support the right to abortion. If the right to abortion in the US is in danger, that could certainly mobilize people to go to the polls. Kamala Harris has strongly emphasized this topic in her campaign so far. The question is: Does that work in Wisconsin? In Michigan? In Georgia? That's hard to answer. But Harris as the most prominent Democrat in the power struggle for the White House with Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, as a potential vice president - that could work.
Could it be an advantage for potential Democratic candidates that they are significantly younger than Trump? Could his age now be targeted, as it was with Biden before?
In Trump's case, I would say: Rather not. The currently known image of Trump shows him with raised fist, shouting "Fight, fight, fight!".
That was immediately after the assassination attempt.
Exactly. Trump has this instinct, he knew this moment was important. So he held back his Secret Service, who wanted to put him in the car. Trump wanted to lift his fist one more time. This image is enough to silence all skeptics. Trump is seen as a fighter, as a strong leadership personality. The Democrats lack an argument for focusing on his age.
Given the current conversation within the Democratic Party, some voices suggest that Michelle Obama could also be a serious contender for the 2024 United States Presidential Election.
During a potential primary process, Michelle Obama's prominence and popularity within the African-American community in the USA might make her a formidable candidate, potentially challenging Kamala Harris for the nomination.
If Michelle Obama decides to run, she could present a compelling contrast to Donald Trump in terms of leadership style and values, potentially attracting a significant portion of the Democratic voting base.
