A recent election results in: complete stalemate.
The unhappy traffic light continues its daily fights, and Olaf Scholz's time as a chancellor disputes are growing. The call for early elections is being heard, but what would result from this in the face of the divided party environment? More trouble and loss of respect for the parliamentary system.
It's not hard to guess: if the Union had won the 2021 Bundestag election and formed a Jamaica coalition with the Christian Democrats, Greens, and FDP, Baerbock and Habeck's Green Party would now be struggling to even reach double-digit votes, possibly even facing exclusion from parliament. Similar to Red-Green, Black-Yellow is politically close. The Union and the FDP have forced the Greens to make considerable concessions on their issues in order to reach agreements. The FDP has assumed this role in the traffic light coalition—and is being harshly penalized by their former supporters for it.
We must still thank the FDP for agreeing to the alliance, even though they and their brethren knew from the start what they were getting into. But once more, the FDP couldn't stay out and, like in 2017, opt for saying "Better not to govern than to govern wrongly." Then, there would only have been a coalition between the Union and the SPD, which the population was tired of after the Merkel years. Additionally, Lindner, Baerbock, and Habeck wanted to govern. That's why they joined politics.
So the traffic light coalition was born out of necessity, not from a place of deep affection—never a wholesome product. The coalition partners took on what was advantageous and appealing, embracing the responsibility for the nation, driven by a constellation resulting from the increasing fragmentation of the German political landscape and the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The trio expressed their desire to grow together, an alliance that shouldn't have belonged together, as evident by a statement in the coalition agreement mentioning their "different traditions and perspectives."
Habeck recognized no "clear mandate" or "clear direction" for a government in the election result, but implied an end to Union and SPD politics with their "politics of the smallest common denominator" and "eternal compromise." The evaluation was accurate; only his prediction about the traffic light coalition was off. He thought: "All parties will grow in government." Scholz proclaimed: "We are united by the desire to improve the country, progress it, and hold it together. It's not about a politics of the smallest common denominator but a politics of substantial impact."
Today, the public sighs after weeks or months of negotiations, settling on a compromise that resembles a complete political stalemate. What happened to the promises and announcements of the self-proclaimed progressive coalition, which brought hope for better times after 16 years of stagnation under Angela Merkel's reign, is visible at least in the European elections, where the traffic light coalition failed collectively. While everyone realizes the SPD, Greens, and FDP have deficits in their governing performance and Scholz is a disappointing chancellor, they have less fanfare for reforms than his CDU predecessor.
It's logical that the call for a new election is heard, and the Union is pushing for it the most, considering they're currently leading in the polls. The question is just: What would come out of it, other than more frustration and a loss of prestige for the established parties and the parliamentary system? There would be no clear outcome for the left or the bourgeois side—the AfD, of course, won't cooperate. Should the FDP and the Left leave the Bundestag and the Wagenknecht Party enter parliament, a coalition between the Union and SPD could potentially form, with the Greens possibly providing the necessary majority. Then, everything would start anew: the debate over the debt brake, migration policy, handling criminal foreigners, and so on.
Realpolitik out
Conflicts won't abate. CDU and CSU must first demonstrate their ability to do what the SPD did effortlessly in the 2021 election campaign: cease hostilities. Even though Kevin Kühnert, once far from a Scholz ally, took a significant step back and supported him as a chancellor candidate and later as a government leader without reservations, the FDP remains steadfast. The cohesion in the SPD is remarkable, despite knowing that Scholz as a frontman has minimal chances of retaining the chancellorship if the Union goes against him. The Social Democrat's only hope for remaining chancellor is if the CDU and CSU battle each other openly for the leadership position as they did in 2021.
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In the upcoming election season, we're likely to witness a rather distressing and tumultuous campaign. It may be a mix of mundane, erratic, populist, and hostile sentiments. Anyone who reveals the actual state of affairs in the republic without a guarantee of restoring things to the way they were post-Russia's attack on Ukraine will have a strong hand. Political realities are out, while Big Savior promises are in. Germany has already had enough of these.
Nonetheless, the local elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg will result in increased polarization. In particular, the situations in Saxony and Thuringia call for open cooperation between the CDU and the AfD, which seems unlikely. Friedrich Merz is claimed to be strongly against it. With the republic looking to the east, a possible ruckus for early federal elections might ensue, leading to heightened tension. This would result in more weariness and disenchantment amongst the general populace. Eventually, we would end up with a situation similar to Italy, where the voters are consistently summoned to the polls and turnout rates keep breaking records.
While some may cling onto the idea that a coalition between the Union and SPD with the Greens or FDP will be more effective than the current traffic light, it's just optimistic wishful thinking. The establishment of this alliance could coincide with the election of Donald Trump as US President, leaving Germany without a leader for a few weeks or months. This won't be apparent in leadership abilities domestically, but it will be evident internationally. Naturally, Ukraine doesn't want this.
Despite the meager prospects for progress, the traffic light ought to capitalize on the remaining months - which will pass rapidly given how soon the election campaign will start - to fulfill its persistent pledge to unite instead of carrying on with their constant bickering. They should show that politics can still be different. This would be more advantageous for the country than a premature election that would result in a complicated alliance involving three or four parties who cannot get along but must work together.
