A paralyzed France would be the best thing for Germany
A pat at the upcoming Sunday's parliamentary election would allow President Macron to breathe and prevent a EU- and Germany-hostile prime minister. As there is one from the right as well as from the left.
In this second round of French parliamentary elections, the extremes have suddenly become a distinct possibility: a clear victory for the far-right camp of Marine Le Pen or that of the left-extremist alliance "New Popular Front". The country can hardly fall apart any more, the political center is largely pulverized.
Historians will decide how much Emmanuel Macron contributed to this by blurring the traditional left-right divide with his movement or party. By monopolizing the political center, Macron left voters with no alternative but to look massively towards the left or right.
Now, in almost all public appearances, it's only about preventing an absolute majority of the Le Pen camp. That sounds honorable. But an absolute majority for the left alliance would be just as disastrous from a German perspective.
At the helm of the left alliance, open antisemitism is being practiced. Social and pension policy would not take into account debt and Euro stability, the EU is critically viewed in parts. Furthermore, Ukraine could no longer count on support, Moscow's influence in the EU would grow. And Germany serves as a bogeyman for French left-wing circles similar to how the far-right circles view them. Regardless of what the democratic majority of the French want: For German interests specifically in the Euro, EU, Ukraine, and friendly relations with the French government, it makes no great difference whether a Le Pen prime minister rules alone or one from the left alliance. Instead, a stalemate in parliament would be best for Germany - as well as for President Macron.
A stalemate between the three camps (including his own) would have the following advantages:
Firstly: The momentum of the Le Pen camp would be stopped. If it comes to a march through next Sunday, it would bring the president to the brink of resignation and make a further march of the radical right into the presidential palace more likely.
Secondly: A stalemate in parliament and longer negotiations for the next government could open up the political culture in France for coalition governments, as known in Germany. Macron would have some breathing room and time to think. He has missed that greatly, as the parliament was dissolved that very evening of the European election and his political party base shattered. As president, he can at best dissolve the parliament again in a year - it's quite possible that's his plan now. A powerless parliament benefits him more than it harms him.
Thirdly: The French president could probably develop no more grandiose plans in the EU. President Macron would be supported, but still strong enough to prevent a broad anti-European rollback - and thus remain a partner who fits better with the hesitant federal chancellor than before.
States have no friends, only interests, once remarked France's political godfather Charles de Gaulle. If this is true, Germany currently has an interest in a remnant of French reliability following the deliberate downfall of the Parisian government. This remnant of reliability is all the more significant in a parliamentarily restrained France than under a clear majority for Right or Left. In short: A political stalemate in France is a lesser evil for Germany.
The Rassemblement National, led by Marine Le Pen, poses a threat to German-French relations if they were to gain an absolute majority in the French parliament, as they have critical views towards the EU and Ukraine. Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, is currently focused on preventing such an outcome in the upcoming parliamentary election, understanding its implications for France's relationship with Germany and the EU.
