Alliance meeting - A NATO summit in the shadow of Putin and Trump
When this Wednesday following the grand ceremony for NATO's 75th anniversary for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other heads of state and government begins the real work, two persons will influence the events, who are not even present. One is named Vladimir Putin and has bestowed upon NATO a second spring with his military aggression against Ukraine. The other is named Donald Trump and represents the uncertainty and concerns that NATO faces despite its new significance due to the brutal war in Europe.
Would NATO survive if Trump were to win the US presidency again after a four-year hiatus? And if not, what would the world look like then?
There will be no answer to these questions at the NATO summit. However, it is established that Trump's chances of winning the US presidential election in November have increased in the past few days. After his disastrous performance of his Democratic opponent Joe Biden in a TV debate a few days ago, Trump gained ground in the polls. The Republican, who was president from 2017 to 2021, was able to expand his lead over Biden. If Biden makes a poor showing at the summit, this could further bolster Trump.
Concerns over dealing with Russia over Ukraine's head
Trump's possible re-election raises concerns for many not only because of Ukraine. Trump claimed in the US campaign several times that he could end the Russian aggression war in 24 hours. However, it is clear that he does not want to help Ukraine win against Russia with additional military support.
Politico reported, citing Trump's environment, that Trump is considering a kind of deal in which NATO would commit not to expand further to the east. At the same time, he wants to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin about how much Ukrainian territory Moscow could keep. From the perspective of most European countries, such an approach would be an enormous and dangerous taboo break. Putin could then claim victory in his war and be encouraged to engage in further aggressions.
Doubts about the commitment to support
Further reasons for concern are the experiences with Trump during his tenure from 2017 to 2021 and the latest campaign statements. In his first term, Trump frequently criticized the supposedly too low defense spending of European allies and threatened to withdraw the US from the alliance at times. In the latest campaign, he repeated these accusations and portrayed the US under Biden as a country that lets itself be drained by European freeloaders.
At the beginning of the year, Trump threatened NATO countries that did not meet their financial obligations with no longer providing American protection - and effectively encouraged Russia to do as it pleased with them. And in an interview, he reminded: One should not forget that NATO is more important for Europe than for the US, because there is an ocean, "a beautiful, great, magnificent ocean" between the US and "some problems" in Europe.
Problematic is all this, as NATO relies on the deterrence principle, for which Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is relevant. It regulates the commitment in the alliance and states that an armed attack against one or more Allies shall be considered as an attack against all.
NATO wants to secure Trump
The current efforts to at least secure Ukraine support a little further in the direction of Trump-proofing are evident. Therefore, NATO intends to take over the international coordination of weapons deliveries and training for the Ukrainian armed forces in the future - in case the Americans, who have been responsible for this task so far, were to reduce their engagement under Trump.
At the same time, the Alliance is aware that a total withdrawal of the NATO partner, the USA, would not be compensatable. According to current NATO figures, the United States will spend approximately 968 billion US dollars on defense this year, and thus almost twice as much as the European Allies and Canada combined.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg remains optimistic, however, and refers to the positive developments in recent years. "I expect the USA to remain a strong Ally, regardless of the outcome of the US elections," he told the German Press Agency shortly before the summit. One reason is that NATO also makes the USA stronger and more secure. In addition, there is strong bipartisan support for NATO in the US Congress and in US public opinion, and European Allies have recently done a lot. "Today, 23 Allies contribute two percent of their Gross National Product for defense - in comparison to three in 2014, when we agreed on the two percent goal," he said. "This shows that the USA does not bear the burden alone."
- Despite Olaf Scholz and other leaders' attendance at the NATO summit's ceremonial festivities for its 75th anniversary, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump's influences loom large.
- Putin's military aggression against Ukraine has given NATO a new sense of urgency, while Trump's potential return to the US presidency after the November election causes uncertainty and apprehension.
- If Trump wins the US election, there are concerns about NATO's survival, and the impact on the world is unclear.
- After his poor performance in a recent TV debate, Trump's chances of winning the election have improved, and his lead over Joe Biden has grown.
- Trump's campaign statements and actions during his previous term as president raise further concerns for European countries.
- He has frequently criticized European allies for allegedly low defense spending and threatened to withdraw the US from NATO.
- In the past, Trump threatened NATO countries that did not meet their financial obligations with reduced protection, effectively encouraging Russia.
- Putin could potentially exploit such situations, further exacerbating conflicts and aggressions in Europe.
- The NATO summit aims to secure commitments to support Ukraine, as Trump may reduce US engagement for the task.
- NATO plans to take over international coordination of weapons delivery and training for the Ukrainian armed forces if necessary.
- Stoltenberg maintains optimism, citing bipartisan support for NATO in the US and recent increases in European defense spending, reducing the US burden alone.
