19:54 Analysis: It'simplistic to believe that Ukraine can sustain its current pace
In order to gain the upper hand against Russia on the battlefield, Ukraine must employ "unorthodox" techniques, asserts Dmytro Schmajlo, co-founder and executive director of the strategic think tank "Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center" based in Kyiv. This involves long-range strikes, such as artillery and missile attacks. By employing such tactics during the autumn 2022 counteroffensive, Ukraine could have disrupted Russian logistics routes and bases for several months, forcing Russian troops to retreat from parts of the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. According to Schmajlo, Ukraine's military strength in manpower is insufficient in comparison to Russia's. Consequently, the focus is on disrupting the enemy's logistics and targeting the "core" of the military-industrial complex behind it. Currently, Ukraine is utilizing its locally developed long-range drones to strike targets located deep within Russian territory, more than 1000 kilometers away. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, this demonstrates Ukraine's capability of launching attacks on Russian soil; however, Western precision weapons with a more extensive range would inflict significantly more damage. The Western alliance is reticent to authorize the use of Western weapons for this purpose due to concerns of escalating the conflict. According to Schmajlo, their deployment could significantly impact the situation on the frontlines within a few months.
19:20 Röttgen: "A political solution requires a military prerequisite" German CDU politician Röttgen redraws expectations of a swift peace. "Diplomacy may only have a chance again when Putin realizes that he can accomplish nothing through war," Röttgen tells "Der Spiegel." He criticizes that the West is not doing enough to bring about this realization. "A political solution will be required. However, it will have a military prerequisite: This does not entail the retrieval of all Ukrainian territories. Rather, it necessitates Ukraine acquiring a military advantage until Putin understands: There is nothing more to gain through war." To achieve this, Ukraine requires continuous and effective support.
18:36 Ukraine: More than half a million bombs and mines clearedSince the inception of the Russian full-scale invasion, Ukraine's demining teams have identified and neutralized over 533,200 explosive devices. They have cleared 148,858 hectares of land of mines and 4,018 aerial bombs. In the previous 24 hours alone, the units of the state emergency service addressed 173 calls and neutralized and disposed of 293 explosive devices, including two aerial bombs. The most affected regions were Kharkiv (35,815 times), Kherson (16,560 times), Donetsk (14,826 times), Kyiv (11,393 times), Mykolaiv (9,360 times), Chernihiv (6,948 times), and Sumy (4,425 times). Ukraine is the most heavily mined country in the world. The experts of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense have cleared 30,000 square kilometers of land from mines in the last two years - an area the size of Belgium or Moldova. Since 2022, approximately 174,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory have been contaminated with explosives.
17:54 Former NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg: Ukraine could join the alliance despite Russian occupationNorway's former Secretary-General of the defense alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, suggests an alternate method for Ukraine to join NATO prior to the cessation of hostilities with Russia. While Ukraine has long been expected to join NATO following the conclusion of the conflict, with the objective of reclaiming its entire territory, Stoltenberg proposes that Ukraine could potentially join beforehand. The region of Ukraine considered NATO territory does not necessarily need to be the internationally recognized border. "You need a line that determines when Article 5 comes into effect, and Ukraine must control all the territory up to that border," Stoltenberg explains. Article 5 is the defense clause that obligates other states to militarily defend the member. West Germany saw East Germany as part of a larger Germany, Stoltenberg stated. "But NATO only protected West Germany." Additionally, the United States provides security guarantees to Japan, not for the Kuril Islands, which Japan considers its territory, but are controlled by Russia. Ukraine submitted an application for NATO membership in 2022. Currently, approximately one-fifth of Ukraine's territory is under Russian control.
17:19 CDU politician Röttgen accuses Chancellor Scholz of "fear rhetoric"German CDU foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen blames Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz for the declining popular support for providing weapons to Ukraine. Röttgen claims that the "fear rhetoric" of the Federal Chancellor is responsible for this decreasing support. "Olaf Scholz consistently rejects measures to support as too dangerous, as if Ukraine's self-defense is the escalation and not the Russian attack," Röttgen criticizes in an interview with "Der Spiegel." According to Röttgen, utilizing the intimidation rhetoric of the warmonger and conveying it to the Germans with the authority of the Chancellor is irresponsible. "A Chancellor should not be influenced by fear. He should not make fear the basis of his political action."
According to Ukrainian military leaders, Russian troops are planning an imminent attack towards the significant city of Saporischschja. This move, among other things, aims to cut off the supply lines to the eastern defense sectors around Donbass, as suggested by the military representative responsible for the region, Vladislav Voloshin. He notes, "The fact that the situation there is challenging is evident from the ongoing counter-battery war, along with continuous shelling of our positions and attacks on our lines." Counter-battery war refers to the artillery fire on identified enemy artillery positions. Furthermore, there are heavy air and missile attacks on this front section south of Saporischschja: "The situation is quite intense." In the Saporischschja region, Russian troops have taken control of the southern part of the area, including the same named nuclear power plant, but not the major city itself.
16:17 Updates: Russia Mistakes, Downs Its Own Unmanned Combat Vehicle
Reports suggest that Russia has lost a stealth drone in Ukrainian airspace. Several pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian Telegram channels reported that the unmanned combat aircraft, a S-70 Okhotnik, crashed in the Donetsk region. A member of the Ukrainian Air Force claimed that the S-70 fired cluster bombs at Ukrainian positions before being shot down by friendly Russian fire to avoid its capture. This novel drone, capable of carrying up to 2,000 kilograms of weapons, was expected to start mass production later this year, according to Russian reports.
15:44 Report: Russia Relies Heavily on North Korea for Artillery Shells
Half of all artillery shells used by Russia in Ukraine are said to be supplied by North Korea, according to a report by "The Times" citing Western intelligence services. North Korea allegedly provides around 3 million shells to Moscow annually, with a significant portion likely being faulty. Despite this, these defective shells have played a critical role in Russia's advance in eastern Ukraine, including the recent capture of Wuhledar in the Donetsk region. As Russia's munitions stocks dwindle due to heavy use in Ukraine, North Korea has emerged as Russia's leading external arms supplier. In August, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported that North Korea had received technology from Russia to aid in the use of spy satellites, tanks, and aircraft in exchange for artillery shells. In June, the two countries signed a military defense agreement.
15:16 Russia Increases Use of "Undisclosed" Drones Against Ukraine
In addition to Shahed-type drones, Russia's military is reportedly increasing the use of "undisclosed" drone models against Ukraine, according to former Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat, as reported by "Kyiv Independent." Ihnat did not specify the type of these drones. Russia has intensified its drone attacks in recent weeks, with daily attacks on cities and towns in Ukraine for the first time since the full-scale invasion, both in September and so far in October.
14:51 Kara-Mursa Wins Human Rights Award: "Battle Between Good and Evil"
Russian Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Mursa and his wife Yevgeniya are being awarded the human rights prize of the Bruno Kreisky Foundation in Vienna. The couple is advocating for the release of other dissidents from Russian detention. For prisoners like Moscow district council member Alexey Gorinov and Siberian journalist Maria Ponomarenko, this is a matter of life and death. Both were sentenced to long prison terms for criticizing Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Kara-Mursa was himself imprisoned in Russia for a long time and was only released in August as part of a prisoner exchange. The Kara-Mursas urge Western politicians to take a more active stance: "When there's a real struggle between good and evil, dictators unite, and the survival of democracy worldwide is at risk, you can't be neutral," says Yevgeniya Kara-Mursa.
14:23 Concerns about long-range missiles? Russia reportedly moving personnel and equipmentA partisan group named Atesh, active in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, reports the relocation of military equipment and personnel to secure locations in Mariupol. "Due to the threat posed by the Ukrainian army's long-range rockets, Russian military commanders are seriously concerned about the safety of their troops and have no choice but to change their positions," the group states. They aim to further uncover movement routes and share this information with the Ukrainian army.
13:45 "Herculean efforts" - Ukraine aims to reclaim gas platformsThe Ukrainian state border guard has published a video of an operation with the military intelligence to reclaim gas platforms in the Black Sea near the Snake Island. "With herculean efforts, we have seized some of these strategically important facilities that serve as our sea fortresses and brought them under our control. If we keep them, we can control a significant part of the water area and strengthen our defense," the caption reads.
12:50 Unavailability of Renowned Russian Propaganda Channel on Platform XOne of the prominent Russian propaganda channels, labeled as Rybar, has been rendered inaccessible on the X platform. The channel, boasting over 1.3 million subscribers, reported its deactivation on Telegram, expressing frustration towards Elon Musk. The reasons behind the blockage remain unspecified. Rybar identifies itself as the "most referenced Russian Telegram channel in international media" and focuses on military analysis, information warfare, and visual propaganda.
12:03 Unconfirmed Reports of Russian Combat Aircraft DowningUnconfirmed reports suggest that Ukraine might have downed another Russian combat aircraft. This allegation has been circulating on social media platforms and has also been reported by Nexta. At this stage, there is no official confirmation from authorities. The incident is reported to have occurred over Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian journalist Illia Ponomarenko speculates that it could be an instance of friendly fire, caused by the Russians themselves.
11:44 Capture of Ukrainian Village by Russian Troops According to TASSAs per reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense and TASS, Russian troops have seized control of the village of Schelanne Druhe in eastern Ukraine. The village, located in the Donetsk region, is under partial Russian control. These reports of conflict cannot be independently verified.
11:32 Post-War Order Suggestions by Merz Involving Germany, France, UK, and PolandUnion's chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz proposes the establishment of a contact group comprising Germany, France, the UK, and Poland to outline suggestions for a European post-war order in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict. Merz stresses that any proposals for peace must be collaboratively presented, not solely by Germany, and that the perception should not emerge that Europe's political map is being redrawn without due consideration for Eastern and Central European states, particularly Ukraine. Alongside the USA, these four nations possess the political, economic, and military strength to influence Europe's post-war political order.
11:15 Ukraine's Strategic Plan Ahead of Ramstein MeetingUkrainian President Selenskyj plans to present a "victory plan" at the upcoming Ramstein meeting, which will be conducted at the level of heads of state and government. This plan will encompass "clear, concrete steps towards a just resolution to the conflict." Corresponding footage suggests that Kyiv relies on arms deliveries from its allies to confront Russia with "strength." The clip showcases fighter jets, tanks, and artillery. The video highlights the need for long-range capabilities and reinforcement of frontline positions. Additionally, aerial images of allegedly damaged Russian ammunition depots are shown. Destroying these depots serves as an effective means to curb Russia's ability to sustain its aggressive war. However, these ammunition depots are often located away from the front lines and are well-protected, necessitating powerful long-range weapons with high explosive capabilities.
10:42 Economic Influence Consolidation by Chinese Companies in RussiaFormer National Bank of Ukraine president, Kyrylo Shevchenko, points out on the X platform that Chinese companies are increasingly gaining influence in Russia's economy. This year, 34% of new businesses have Chinese ownership, a significant increase from 13% in 2021. Shevchenko notes that monthly registrations have reached 200, with wholesale accounting for 26% of turnover. He expresses concern regarding the Chinese companies' dominance in key sectors, suggesting that it challenges Russia's economic sovereignty.
10:08 Outrage Over Appeal by Kretschmer, Woidke, and VoigtThe chairman of the European Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, Anton Hofreiter, has criticized the appeal from politicians Michael Kretschmer, Dietmar Woidke, and Mario Voigt, calling for more diplomatic engagement with Russia, as irresponsible. Critics argue that such appeals undermine support for Ukraine, strengthening Putin's resolve to continue the conflict. Left-wing members have politically split over the Russian invasion, with some downplaying or denying the blame, and accepting Ukraine's subjugation by Russian invaders.
09:31 Regret over Participation in Peace Demonstration in BerlinMax S., a left-wing member from Saxony-Anhalt, has expressed regret for participating in a recent peace demonstration in Berlin. He criticized the hostile response towards SPD politician Ralf Stegner when he mentioned the Russian attack, and the "warmonger" chants from BSW members. He emphasized that Ukraine has a right to self-defense and that such responses should not be tolerated in a peace demonstration. He has vowed not to participate in such events in the future.
08:49 Confession of Mistake in Weapons Policy by Stoltenberg
Previous NATO leader Jens Stoltenberg openly acknowledges that Ukraine did not receive sufficient weapons support. As stated in an interview with the "Financial Times", he admits, "We should have provided them with more weapons before the invasion, and more advanced weapons after the invasion. I accept my share of the blame." There was a considerable debate among allies prior to Russia's attack in February 2022 concerning whether war supplies should be granted to Kyiv. At the time, most allies were against it, citing significant concerns.
08:07 Ukraine Launches Drone Attacks on Voronezh Region
According to the governor of Voronezh, Alexander Gusev, Ukrainian drone attacks transpired throughout the night. Several companies producing civilian products were targets, resulting in one injury and a fire, Gusev declared. Burn injuries are evident in unverified videos on social media. Traditionally, Russian authorities minimize the impacts of Ukrainian attacks.
07:31 Russian Defense Ministry Shares Bizarre Training Video for Drone Defense
The Russian Defense Ministry has released a video depicting Russian troops undergoing anti-drone training. Drones pose a significant threat on the battlefield, and the most efficient way to counter them is through electronic jammers. Should electronic jammers not be accessible or successful, defending against drones is often challenging. Shooting down drones with infantry weapons is challenging, and shotguns tend to be the most suitable option. In the Russian video, a soldier is observed using a roll to evade a ground attack temporarily. Another soldier is shown lifting his rifle skyward and hitting a drone with it. Such scenes have frequently been observed in footage from the frontline, where drones typically explode.
06:45 OSINT Expert Reveals High Casualty Figures for Russian Troops near Pokrovsk
The ruthless approach of Russia in their war, involving mass forced assaults, is evident in the data presented by an OSINT expert from the Oryx project. According to these statistics, Russian troops are enduring significant casualties near Pokrovsk, the current conflict's epicenter, that far surpass those of Ukraine. Data suggests that within the previous year, the Kremlin's forces have lost 539 tanks, while Ukraine has reportedly lost 92. In military terms, attackers typically require a threefold advantage to be successful against defenders. This disparity is even more apparent in armored combat vehicles, like APCs, with 1020 destroyed, abandoned, or damaged Russian vehicles compared to 138 Ukrainian vehicles. Lee, a former United States Marine from the Foreign Policy Research Institute, characterizes these losses as "abnormally high". OSINT experts usually gather their information from publicly accessible image and video sources online, and the actual losses likely exceed these figures.
06:06 Former Commander Saluschnyj Opposes Lowering Conscription Age
Valeriy Saluschnyj, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces and the current Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom, believes that Ukraine should avoid lowering the conscription age. He considers the age group of 18 to 25-year-olds as the future of Ukraine, and only in extreme cases should the mobilization age be decreased. As he previously explained, this age group should be protected as much as possible since they will ensure Ukraine's future growth.
05:29 Second Attempt: Establishment of Ukrainian Volunteer Legion in Poland
Deputy Defense Minister Pawel Zalewski announced on Friday that the Ukrainian consulate in Lublin has commenced recruiting Ukrainian citizens living in Poland to be taught by the Polish military. Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz stated that Poland was prepared to start training in September, but the lack of volunteers postponed the beginning: "At that time, not enough volunteers had come forward. As far as I know, Ukraine has now stepped forward to notify, recruit, and promote this process, so we should expect results," Kosiniak-Kamysz informed Wnp.pl. The legion was introduced in July as a volunteer military unit consisting of Ukrainian residents in Poland and trained by the Polish military.
04:00 Stoltenberg Regrets Allies' Delayed Weapon Delivery to Ukraine
In an interview with the "Financial Times," former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg laments the delayed delivery of weapons to Ukraine during his tenure as NATO leader. He indicates, "If there's one thing I regret, and see much more clearly now, it's that we should have given Ukraine much more military support much earlier." The debate concerning the deployment of lethal weapons was intense. Most allies opposed the delivery of weapons before the invasion, claiming to have significant concerns. Stoltenberg is proud of the assistance that was provided, but admits that earlier support would have greatly benefited Ukraine and may have even prevented the invasion or made it more difficult to carry out.
02:01 Heavy Casualties for Russian Elite Units in Wuhledar CombatAs revealed by BBC News on a recent Friday, Russian elite forces have endured four times as many casualties during their year-long combat around Wuhledar in the Donetsk region compared to the ten years of the Second Chechen War. The Ukrainian forces declared their departure from the substantial settlement in the Donetsk region on a Wednesday, following Russian troops' conquest of the city's peripheries and their entry into Wuhledar itself. The Russian army's 155th and 40th elite brigades, also known as the "Black Knights," took part in the initial onslaught on the city. According to BBC reports, at least 211 marines from the 155th Brigade perished during the Battle of Wuhledar, with another 42 going missing. This significantly surpasses the unit's losses during the prolonged Second Chechen War (1999-2009). BBC journalists also registered the fatalities of 72 soldiers from the 40th Brigade.
23:55 Belarusian Opponents Sentenced for Sabotage Act - Up to 25 Years ImprisonmentA Belarusian court has handed down prison sentences ranging from two to 25 years to 12 opposition figures for allegedly participating in a sabotage attack on a Russian military aircraft in February 2023. The Minsk court ruled the twelve defendants guilty of involvement in the "terror attack," as declared by the prosecution. Five of the convicted are present in Belarus, while the rest were tried in absentia. Among those convicted abroad, including the presumed mastermind of the attack, Nikolai Shvets, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison. He had left Belarus during the summer as part of a prisoner exchange with Ukraine. In February 2023, pro-Ukrainian activists claimed to have brought down a Russian military aircraft at the Matschulischtschi airport near Minsk. The aircraft was reported to be an A-50 reconnaissance plane.
22:19 Report: Russia Plans to Accruit 225,000 Contract Soldiers in Three YearsThe Russian Ministry of Defense is reportedly planning to enlist at least 225,000 contract soldiers over the following three years, according to the independent Russian online media outlet "Important Stories." This is indicated by the proposed budget for the years 2025 to 2027. Approximately $335 million in one-time sign-up bonuses for contract soldiers is planned for each year.
21:44 Romanian Discovers Russian Drone on NATO TerritoryThe NATO member Romania reported finding a Russian drone on its territory. The Ministry of Defense posted on its X-platform that fragments of a Russian drone were discovered in the vicinity of the Litcov Canal, close to the border with Ukraine. These fragments are being examined. A week prior, there was an incident involving a Russian drone. The drone may have briefly breached Romanian airspace, the ministry explained. The drone was involved in an attack on the southern Ukrainian city of Izmail. The city is located on the Danube, with Romania situated across the Danube at that point.
21:10 Johnson: If Trump Were President, Putin Wouldn't Have Invaded UkraineFormer British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes that it's no mere coincidence that Russia did not invade Ukraine when Donald Trump was U.S. President. "One of the advantages of Trump is his sheer unpredictability," he tells the "Telegraph." He proposes that Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president. "From the Kremlin's perspective, there was a genuine fear that Trump would consider an attack on a European nation as a challenge to America and the world order, and respond harshly," according to the "Telegraph." Johnson believes that Trump's unpredictability by itself would have been enough to dissuade Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin from launching a war against a sovereign nation.
20:03 Russians Closing in on Pokrovsk - Seven Kilometers AwayRussian troops are reportedly advancing towards Pokrovsk, now positioned seven kilometers from the city's outskirts, according to Mayor Serhii Dobriak in Ukrainian television. Formerly, the distance was reported to be less than ten kilometers. The mayor highlights bombings; the city center alone sustained two bombings the previous day. Now, 80% of the city's critical infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed. "The enemy leaves us without power, water, and gas. This is preliminary for winter," he says. Over 13,000 people remain in Pokrovsk, including nearly 100 children who failed to heed evacuation orders. The city's pre-war population was 60,000.
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The European Union could play a crucial role in providing Ukraine with the necessary support to achieve a military advantage and eventually negotiate peace with Russia. This would require continuous and effective aid, potentially including Western precision weapons with a more extensive range than Ukraine's current locally developed drones.
In light of the Russian troops planning an imminent attack towards Saporischschja, Ukraine's military leaders must employ effective countermeasures, such as counter-battery war (artillery fire on identified enemy artillery positions). This would help weaken Russian forces and disrupt their logistics, resulting in a military advantage for Ukraine.
