18:02 Nuclear escalation risk assessment by specialist: What's the potential likelihood?
Regarding the recently released information by the Peace Research Institute SIPRI on global nuclear arms race, Nico Lange proposes reinforcing the "traditional defense" of Germany and Europe. Yet, he advises caution at this point in time.
17:39 NATO aircraft execute eleven sorties to intercept Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea. It is claimed that NATO fighter jets have repeatedly taken off to confront unrecognized Russian military aircraft in the international airspace above the Baltic Sea. As per Lithuanian reports, approximately eleven sorties were conducted within the past week, with approximately two dozen Russian fighter jets, bombers, spy planes, and transport aircraft, in addition to a commercial plane, being monitored. Many of these aircraft were flying without a flight plan, transponder signal, or any radio communication.
17:10 The Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine suggests that Russia is escalating its attacks in anticipation of announced deliveries of combat aircraft and other Western military assistance to Kiev. Russian military forces are reportedly heightening their assaults, understanding that the arrival of the initial US F-16 fighter jets will offer an advantage for Ukraine. Consequently, it is believed that Russia is making every effort to broaden their military operations.
16:42 Vladimir Putin has reportedly removed four deputy defense ministers and appointed a relative, Anna Zivileva, to replace one of the vacant positions. According to Reuters news agency reports, Zivileva, who is believed to be the daughter of one of Putin's cousins, is now holding the position of deputy defense minister.
16:22 A rocket attack by Russia has led to power outages in the Ukrainian region of Poltawa. Approximately nine people were harmed, and power lines were damaged in this attack. Around 53,000 private and 2,400 industrial consumers were affected by power outages, as outlined by Governor Filip Pronin. Several high-rise buildings also sustained damage.
15:58 Military analyst Ralph Thiele criticizes the Western approach towards Ukraine. He points out that promises are not kept, and the delivery of weapons is continually delayed. Thiele, a retired colonel, contends that the supposed success reports cannot mask this truth. Putin's ceasefire proposal is "malicious."
15:33 Joachim Rukwied, the head of German farmers, warns against Ukraine's entry into the EU due to the potential adverse effects on European farmers. According to Rukwied's statements to the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung," immediate EU membership for Ukraine could spell disaster for family-run European agriculture. Integrating an additional 32 million hectares of farmland would significantly undermine the competitiveness of numerous EU farms. He believes that, compared to Ukraine's large-scale agricultural enterprises, a 200-hectare farm in Germany cannot compete. To ensure the survival of domestic agriculture, Rukwied asserts that "immediate import restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products are vital." Apart from addressing subsidy and corruption issues in Ukraine, "politics should not disregard this," he warned. Otherwise, a politically devastating outcome could occur in rural regions during future elections.
15:14 An explosion at a training site in the Czech Republic for Ukrainian troops resulted in nine soldiers getting injured. Two of the injured were airlifted to the University Hospital in Olomouc with severe injuries, while six were taken to a military hospital in Olomouc by ambulance, and one was treated on site. Since the latter part of 2022, the Czech army has trained Ukrainian soldiers at a site in Libava east of Olomouc. However, it was mentioned that the injured soldiers were "not foreigners." The army stated that a "non-specific explosive device" went off, without providing further details.
Update 17:00 hours: The Czech army disclosed that one soldier had succumbed to their injuries in the explosion.
14:52 Ukraine claims the capture of the "Tortoise Tank" for the first time, following its observation of Moscow's army utilizing these vehicles. These tanks are said to be exceptionally violent and destructive. Now, videos have emerged allegedly showing the acquisition of the weapon and the arrest of its crew.
14:23 Putin is supposedly visiting North Korea and Vietnam, adhering to an invitation extended by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during Putin's recent visit to North Korea. This visit is described as a "friendly state visit." He is then scheduled to stay in Vietnam for two days. Russia maintains close ties with North Korea, receiving criticism from the West for doing so. The isolated communist country, which aspires to have nuclear weapons, is speculated to provide Russia with munitions for its hostilities against Ukraine. Kim Jong Un had made a rare overseas visit to Russia in September 2023.
13:58 "Ramped-Up Conflict": Peskov Slams Stoltenberg's Nuclear Weapons RemarksRussia views Stoltenberg's statements about potential deployment of additional nuclear weapons as provocation, according to Presidential Press Secretary Dmitri Peskov. "This is simply another escalation of tensions," Peskov explained. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told "The Telegraph" that discussions are ongoing regarding the deployment of more nuclear weapons and their readiness. "I won't delve into specifics like the number of nuclear warheads or storage locations, but we need to address these issues," Stoltenberg stated. These statements contrast the Ukraine conference communique, claims Peskov now. It states that any nuclear weapon threats or use, related to Ukraine, are unacceptable.
13:36 No Social Aid for Ukrainian Refugees? Federal Government RespondsThe federal government refuses to reduce state benefits for Ukrainian war refugees. The government does not plan to replace social benefits for individuals fleeing the Russian aggression war in Ukraine with benefits for asylum seekers in the future, says Government Spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit. A Federal Labor Ministry spokesperson refers to the fast-track integration measures possible for Ukrainian refugees with Job Centers responsibility. FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai had suggested in the "Bild" newspaper: "New arrivals from the Ukraine war should no longer receive social benefits but fall under the Asylum Seekers Benefits Act."
13:09 Power Cuts Loom in Kiev due to Continued Russian AttacksAmidst ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, the state energy provider predicts more severe power outages. "The situation will worsen significantly compared to today in the coming weeks," announces Ukrenergo's head Volodymyr Kydrytsky. Ukrainians should prepare for power interruptions lasting up to twelve hours daily. The power supply situation is not expected to improve before the end of July, Kydrytsky added. Besides Russian attacks on heating, water power facilities, maintenance work on nuclear power plants, and adverse weather conditions, are contributing factors.
12:38 Kremlin Dismisses Useful Outcome of Swiss Ukraine ConferenceAccording to Kremlin spokesman Peskov, the Swiss Ukraine conference shows that talks without Russian participation are fruitless. Peskow described the meeting's results as "nearly zero." Russia remains open to dialogue with any country seeking it, and will continue to express its stance. At the weekend meeting, Western powers and their allies criticized the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, they failed to persuade neutral countries to endorse their final declaration. No country agreed to organize a follow-up conference, and Russia, initially invited, had signaled it would decline participation.
12:12 Ukraine Default Crisis Not Averted YetDespite negotiations with creditors, Ukraine has failed to avert the default danger. No agreement could be reached on a restructuring of international debts worth around 20 billion dollars, reports suggest. Time is running out: On August 1, the two-year payment hiatus agreed with international bond buyers will expire, a measure taken due to the country's economic situation stemming from the Russian armed conflict. Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko expects an agreement to be reached by August. He also anticipates that the government will secure an agreement before August. War-torn Ukraine has been considering ways to restructure foreign debts with major investors since the end of 2021. Formal talks with bondholders have been underway for nearly two weeks.
11:59 Weber: Accession Talks Signal Important Psychological Boost for UkraineManfred Weber, the Chairman of the European People's Party (EPP), welcomes the initiation of accession talks with Ukraine. No country embodies our values as much as Ukraine, fight as it does for freedom and democracy. "The accession talks, now approaching, are an extremely important psychological signal to Ukraine, encouraging them to live like us in the European Union, namely in peace, freedom, and democracy," Weber stated in a morning interview with ntv. Ukraine has made progress despite the war, however, much remains to be achieved. "The fight against corruption is a critical concern in Ukraine. But the will is there, and the direction is correct," so Weber.
23:02 Denmark Ponders Limiting Older Russian Oil Tankers in Baltic SeaDenmark is considering measures to limit the passage of older Russian oil tankers through the Baltic Sea. The nation has formed a group of collaborating countries to investigate actions against the so-called gray fleet of aged vessels transporting Russian crude oil, as claimed by Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen. This action may lead to a confrontation with Russian leadership. Approximately one third of Russian oil exports pass through the Danish straits, which serve as an entry point to the Baltic Sea. This equals roughly 1.5% of global oil shipments. Any effort to halt these deliveries would increase oil prices and strain the Kremlin's finances.
09:30 Russia Reportedly 'Pleasantly Surprised' by Peace ConferenceFollowing the peace conference in Switzerland, the Kremlin referred to it as a "ridiculous event." However, Russian media seem to have a different outlook on the results. NTV journalist Rainer Munz described a nearly relieved mood in the country.
09:00 Latvia Allegedly Gearing Up for More Drones for Ukraine DeliveryLatvia is said to be preparing a second consignment of drones for Ukraine, according to "Kyiv Independent." The source is statements from Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds. Latvia and Great Britain lead an international coalition providing drones to Ukraine, which have become crucial for the country in the current war. Spruds also mentioned in May that the Latvian government would allot around 20 million euros to the drone coalition and a similar sum for the development of Latvian drone capabilities this year.
08:32 ISW: Putin Uninterested in Sincere NegotiationsThe Institute for the Study of War believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not keen on substantial negotiations. In its latest analysis, the US think tank notes that Putin "only pretends interest in negotiations in certain cases to trick the West into making concessions that would undermine Ukrainian sovereignty." It is "unlikely" that Putin will show interest in genuine talks in the near future. Recently, he has outlined a victory scenario in Ukraine that hinges on the assumption that Russian forces can quietly advance on the battlefield without limit. Putin has recently demanded the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from regions such as Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia as a precondition for negotiations.
07:01 The Left Counts on Pope for Peace EffortsThe Left in the German parliament is also banking on the Pope in peace endeavors. According to the co-chairman of the Left group in the German parliament, Sven Pellmann, in an ARD interview, the Pope could play a mediator role due to his integrity. In fact, the Pope has not been well-received there since his latest appeal to Ukraine to display the "white flag." Putin's recently expressed conditions for peace negotiations are seen by Left-wing politician Pellmann as indications that he is open to talks. "This indicates that, despite being poisoned, this offer indicates that he is obviously also growing weary of war," Pellmann says. At the same time, Putin has expressed his openness for talks.
06:37 Evan Gershkovich's Trial Date SettledThe trial against the US journalist Evan Gershkovich, who is accused of espionage in Russia, begins at the end of June. The trial will be held from the 26th of June behind closed doors in Yekaterinburg, according to the responsible court. The reporter for the "Wall Street Journal" was apprehended during a research trip to Russia in March 2023 and has been in the Lefortovo Prison in Moscow since then. The prosecutor's office accuses the 32-year-old of working for the CIA and of gathering classified information about the tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod in the Sverdlovsk region. If found guilty, Gershkovich faces up to 20 years in prison. He is the first Western journalist since the end of the Cold War to be arrested in Russia on espionage charges. Gershkovich denies the accusations.
06:05 Peace Summit Signals Russia's Political InfluenceThe peace summit in Switzerland ended, according to ntv correspondent Kavita Sharma. Several countries failed to sign the final declaration. Meanwhile, arms deliveries in Ukraine have become more noticeable.
05:36 Ukraine Estimates Russian LossesRussia is losing around 1,080 soldiers per day, according to Ukrainian estimates. The General Staff in Kiev states that this increases the number of Russian casualties since the start of the large-scale attack in February 2022 to approximately 527,000. Russia also lost two tanks, 18 armored personnel carriers, and 14 artillery systems within 24 hours.
04:05 Putin's Confidant for "Additional Military Actions" and "Reunification" with UkraineAccording to statements from Putin's confidant Viktor Medvedchuk in TASS, the real motives behind Putin's offer of a weapons ceasefire to Kiev may be exposed. "Russia's security needs warrant additional military actions to combat the Neo-Nazi regime, in order to achieve complete demilitarization and denazification," Medvedchuk stated. "The Ukrainians desire peace, while Zelensky and his Western puppeteers seek war, even at the cost of annihilating the Ukrainian people. And this people should be liberated from this criminal Nazi rule," Medvedchuk, who was imprisoned in Ukraine on charges of high treason and was handed over to Russia in September 2022 as part of a prisoner exchange, added. "I have repeatedly stated that Ukraine is mostly located on historically Russian territory, so the reunification of the inhabitants of these territories with Russia is a justified historical process that has already been initiated and will continue."
06:33 Over 2,750 imprisoned individuals, reportedly, have been freed to join the Ukrainian military after the introduction of the new conscription law. A 24-year-old ex-convict named Senya Shcherbyna, who served six years for drug trafficking, expresses his sentiment, "I think I can make amends for my past." He eagerly awaits a meeting with recruiters and hopes for early deployment, aiming to contribute more to society than being behind bars. The Ukrainian parliament passed a law on May 8, facilitating the voluntary enlistment of certain prisoners. The recruitment of criminals, including serious offenders, seems to be a tactic by Kiev to revitalize its depleted and fatigued forces, which have been enduring near-continuous combat for over two years. In contrast, Russia has been practicing the recruitment of prisoners, including serious offenders, for a long time.
06:05 According to the Telegraph, NATO countries are reportedly discussing the deployment of additional nuclear weapons due to increasing threats from Russia and China. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg highlights the necessity of showcasing the alliance's nuclear arsenal to the world as a strong statement to adversaries. "I won't disclose specifics, like the number of nuclear warheads to be deployed or the ones to be kept in storage, but we need to address these matters. And that's what we're doing," Stoltenberg said.
05:00 The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) states in its annual report that the number of operational atomic weapons has risen once again. Although nuclear warheads are being decommissioned, and the global number of nuclear weapons has decreased over the years, more operational warheads are being kept at the ready. Transparency regarding nuclear weapons has diminished for both Russia and the United States since the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. "We haven't witnessed such a significant role for nuclear weapons in international relations since the Cold War," says Wilfred Wan, head of the SIPRI Disarmament, Arms Control and Conventional Arms Programme.
03:08 The FDP is advocating for eliminating social benefits for new refugees from Ukraine. FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai told the "Bild" newspaper, "New refugees from Ukraine should no longer receive social benefits but fall under the Asylum Seekers Benefits Act." This move, they believe, would encourage people to seek employment. Previously, certain politicians, including Brandenburg's Interior Minister Michael Stübgen and Bavaria's Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann, had spoken against the payment of social benefits, particularly for Ukrainian refugees of military age.
01:20 Charkiw was allegedly struck by a KAB glide bomb in the evening, according to Mayor Ihor Terekhov. A children's recreation facility was reportedly targeted, resulting in a building's destruction. There is no information available regarding casualties.
00:09 Annalena Baerbock, Foreign Minister, cautions of severe repercussions for Germany and NATO if Ukraine is not adequately supported. "If we fail to continue supporting Ukraine, there's a risk that Putin's troops will be posted at the Polish border. The war will then extend to EU and NATO territory," says the Green politician to the "Süddeutsche Zeitung." New refugee waves would also be a consequence. "If Ukraine can no longer defend itself – and I'm speaking to those who oppose support – then millions more people will have to flee. Who wants to live voluntarily under torture and occupation?"
22:20 Due to systematic Russian shelling of their energy facilities, Ukrainians must brace themselves for even greater electricity supply problems over the next few weeks. "The situation will become much more challenging in the upcoming and subsequent weeks than it is currently," warns Volodymyr Kudryzkyy, the head of energy supplier Ukrenergo, on Ukrainian television. More power outages and cuts are expected, and the predicament will persist until urgent repairs on two nuclear reactors are completed, Kudryzkyy explains. People are already enduring power outages.
21:55 According to local authorities in Charkiw, three individuals were injured in Russian air raids. A pregnant woman, a man, and a 13-year-old boy were hospitalized, as reported by the Regional Prosecutor's Office Charkiw. Russian forces reportedly attacked the village of Pisky-Radkiwski in the afternoon, causing damage to more than ten residential houses and an ambulance.
17:44 Yellen Disputes Putin's "Robbery" ClaimFinance chief Janet Yellen contests Putin's labeling of the freezing of Russian assets overseas and their usage to support Ukraine on Friday as "theft." During an interview on ABC's "This Week," Yellen stated that the frozen Russian assets will stay put. Russia hasn't any right to profits generated from these confiscated assets, she added. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US and its allies chose to freeze Russian government funds within their territory, Yellen clarified. The accumulated amount is about 280 billion dollars. "A large chunk, roughly 200 billion dollars, is kept in a Belgian financial institution, from where they generate income that doesn't belong to Russia, and the income goes to this institution," she stated. The G7 countries have agreed to loan Ukraine over 50 billion dollars, which will be paid using the interest on the frozen funds. Russia's attack on Ukraine - aside from the human toll - has wrecked entire regions and destroyed assets worth billions.
16:22 Russian Forces Boost Assaults, as Per Ukrainian MilitaryDuring the peace summit in Switzerland, Russia is said to have stepped up attacks on Ukraine, according to information from Kiev. "The enemy has increased the pace of its offensive and assault operations today, attempting to either breach our defenses or force Ukrainian units to retreat," the Ukrainian General Staff declared. The number of confrontations is said to have spiked to 88. Most of the fighting took place in the Pokrovsk area in eastern Donezk. There, about 36 confrontations occurred - 25 of which were repelled, whereas 11 are still ongoing. These details are yet to be verified.
16:00 Ukrainian Naval Forces Deploy New Overwater Drone "Stalker 5.0"In response to the Russian invasion, Ukraine is also making use of overwater drones. The Ukrainian military announced via social media that they now have the new overwater drone "Stalker 5.0" available. The drone was unveiled in Odessa. It is said to be capable of traveling at a speed of up to 75 nautical miles per hour and can carry up to 150 kilograms of explosives or other cargo. Its range is around 600 kilometers. The estimated worth is approximately 60,000 euros.
15:30 Russian Journalist Reportedly Killed by Drone StrikeAs per Russian reports, a Russian journalist was reportedly killed in a drone attack in Eastern Ukraine. "Our correspondent Nikita Zizagi was killed in a strike by drones of the Ukrainian army," writes the News.Ru website on Telegram. The attack is alleged to have taken place near a monastery close to the city of Vugledar, which has recently witnessed intense fighting. On Thursday, a journalist from Russian state television was killed and another was injured due to a Ukrainian drone attack in Golmiwsky, a village under Russian control near the frontline in the Donetsk region.
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Read also:
- Following the release of SIPRI's report on global nuclear arms race, some experts suggest strengthening Germany's and Europe's "traditional defense," cautioning against potential escalation in the Ukraine conflict given Russia's actions and anticipated Western military aid to Ukraine.
- In response to increased Russian military activities around the Baltic Sea, NATO planes have conducted numerous sorties to intercept unrecognized Russian aircraft, raising concerns about a potential cyberwar or conventional military operations expansion.
- Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, has warned that Russia may broaden its military operations in anticipation of the arrival of Western military equipment, including U.S. F-16 fighter jets, potentially leading to a Cyberwar or further attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure.
- Amid the conflict, not only traditional military operations but also cyberattacks continue to pose a significant threat to Ukraine's security and critical infrastructure, underscoring the need for robust international support and cyberdefense measures.
