Will there be snow for the festival?
A white Christmas would be wonderful. But there are still a few days to go until the festive season and the thaw is continuing. Nevertheless, anything is still possible in terms of snow for the holidays, says ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander.
December has given us a cold start like we haven't had for a long time. Nevertheless, Germany is now free of snow almost everywhere again. Björn Alexander explains why fans of a flawless winter can still hope for cold weather in December and what this means for the chances of snow for the festive season.
ntv.de: Almost all of Germany was already covered in snow this December. With a view to Christmas: But there's not much left, is there?
Björn Alexander: That's how it looks. With the massive thaw, the last bastions of snow are only in the high altitudes, for example in the Upper Harz, Thuringian Forest, Ore Mountains, Bavarian Forest, Black Forest and the Alps. In combination with the heavy rain in some places, we have therefore traded winter for an intensification of the flood situation.
Are there still chances for winter in the near future?
Regionally, definitely at first. Because the snow line will drop considerably from the middle of the week on the back of low pressure system "Vanja". In the low mountain ranges and towards the Alps, it will soon be 500 to 800 meters again. And in the north and east, snow and sleet may also find their way down to lower altitudes. It will also be cooler with more frequent night frost and daytime highs of 0 to 8 degrees on Friday, for example.
A hint of early winter with a trend that is here to stay?
Up to and including Saturday, which in turn eases the flood situation at the weekend. Especially as, at the same time, a stronger high is finally making itself felt in our weather. However, the downside of the high is that fans of snow and ice will once again have to worry about a real onset of winter in December.
Why?
Because the high is once again boosting the supply of milder air. On the 3rd of Advent and at the start of the coming week, once again with peak values of 2 to almost 10 degrees.
Does this mean we can say goodbye to the dream of a white Christmas?
Perhaps - but certainly not just yet. This is because the longer-term computer models continue to make things exciting, especially at Christmas time. By the middle of next week, even most mountain locations are likely to suffer from a lack of snow again. However, the American weather model in particular sees the chances of snow increasing at the start of winter on December 22.
Why is that?
This is due to a potentially very intense development over northern Europe. Based on a strengthening Scandinavian low, north-westerly to northerly winds would be possible again, which would increase the chances of snow. However, this also applies to the risk of storms - especially in the northern parts of the country. Brief spells of milder air are also conceivable, meaning that the lottery for the Christmas weather could still bring a few surprises.
So the weather year 2023 could also come to an eventful end?
From freezing cold and stormy to noticeably milder, virtually everything is still in the running. Only a permanent high-pressure situation is likely to have a hard time at the end. And that means we're right on course to set regional records for precipitation.
Where could rainfall records fall?
In the west of our country, for example. This includes Essen (NRW), where the previous record is 1251 liters per square meter. This was measured in 1998 - in a series of measurements dating back to 1887.
How much rain are we talking about?
This year, 1227 liters have already fallen up to and including 11 December. By December 20 alone, the majority of weather models are predicting another 30 to 50 liters per square meter or even more, which means we could end up with well over 1250 liters by the end of the year.
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Despite Germany being mostly free of snow now, fans of a winter wonderland can still hope for colder weather and potential snowfall in the upcoming days, as mentioned by ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander. With the approaching holiday season and International Christmas celebrations around the globe, a white Christmas would be an exciting addition to the festive season.
Source: www.ntv.de
