The big storms could still come
Germany gets off relatively lightly in the autumn storms: the major seasonal hurricanes largely pass by off the coast. However, the extraordinary rise in temperatures in the North Atlantic does not bode well.
Autumn is over, the hurricane season in Europe is as good as over: however, the record-high temperatures in the North Atlantic mean that the risk of storms is far from over. Generally speaking, the warmer the seawater, the stronger the storms. In recent weeks, the Atlantic weather has produced a whole series of severe storms. Germany was spared any major damage.
This does not have to remain the case, as a look at the other regions of Europe shows: In the south, the record warm Mediterranean caused some devastating extreme weather events: Heavy rain in Greece, flooding in northern Italy, storm of the century over the Black Sea. In some cases, the effects were felt as far away as Germany and even Scandinavia, as in the case of the storm depression "Zacharias". Autumn hurricane "Emir" (international name "Ciarán") hit western Europe particularly hard.
Are the storms really getting stronger? The measurement data from the North Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Mediterranean at least suggest a connection. Last summer was unusually warm in many respects. The entire ocean and its adjacent seas are much warmer than normal this year. The water temperatures are well above the long-term average.
"On the one hand, this was due to the heat bubbles from the Sahara, which brought extreme, long-lasting and almost apocalyptic heatwaves to southern Europe," explains ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander. "As a result, the Mediterranean Sea warmed to record levels of almost 29 degrees at the end of July." On the other hand, other regions also recorded record-high temperatures. "For example in the Caribbean, where a buoy measured 38.4 degrees south of Miami on 24 July - at a water depth of 1.50 meters."
The North Atlantic is not spared the effects of climate change. According to Björn Alexander, the "maritime heatwaves" are recognizable in the data as temperature anomalies - with corresponding consequences for European weather patterns. In addition to the heated water masses, other factors are also at work: "In southern Europe, there were also midsummer temperatures on land at record levels of up to 30 degrees into November," says the ntv meteorologist, summarizing the situation.
At the same time, weather stations in Scandinavia reported an unusually early onset of winter with unusually low temperatures. "The snow cover continued to spread from the north-east," says Björn Alexander, describing the development over the past few weeks. "While people in Spain were sweating, people in northern Europe were shivering - in some cases with night-time lows below minus 20 degrees."
This meant that the temperature differences in Europe peaked at well over 50 degrees. Such enormous contrasts in a comparatively small area create an explosive situation from a meteorological point of view: a weather kitchen made for extreme weather and storms. "More heat means more water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn means more energy for storms and more potential for rain," says the weather expert, describing the correlations.
In Germany, we can continue to expect extreme weather conditions with a tendency towards heavier rainfall. "That's what the experimental long-term forecasts are currently showing us," confirms the ntv meteorologist. "The data predicts a significant surplus of precipitation both in Germany and in large parts of Europe until the end of February 2024." The winter of 2023/24 could therefore be much rainier than in the past. Or, as Björn Alexander points out, also much snowier - depending on the temperature level at which the air and ground temperatures in Central Europe settle in the coming weeks.
Read also:
The record-high temperatures in the North Atlantic, influenced by climate change, indicate that the risk of extreme weather events is far from over, with regions like Greece and northern Italy experiencing heavy rain and flooding due to severe storms.
Global warming is not sparing the North Atlantic, as evidenced by the increasing number of maritime heatwaves and temperature anomalies, which can lead to more energy for storms and potentially disastrous weather conditions on an international scale.
Source: www.ntv.de
